Gator Baseball postseason outlook...

Discussion in 'Around the Horn - Baseball & Men's Gator Sports!' started by ArtVandelay, Apr 22, 2013.

  1. ArtVandelay
    Offline

    ArtVandelay Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2011
    Messages:
    3,452
    Likes Received:
    112
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    South Florida
    Ratings Received:
    +384
    The last 14 games have really improved our position.

    I know I have seen it posted here before, but I couldn't find it. I'm curious about everyone's thoughts.

    What do we need to do? How good of a seeding can we get?
  2. ETGator1
    Offline

    ETGator1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    11,052
    Likes Received:
    42
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +150
    Given our favorable schedule (Auburn/at Georgia/Tennessee) with the exception of at LSU, I think UF will close well. UF will be in the NCAA tournament so long as the Gators stay above .500 winning percentage. In terms of NCAA regional seeding, I'd project a 2 seed if we close as well as I think we will. We'd have to close well, take 2 of 3 in Red Stick, and make it to the finals of the SEC tournament to get a chance to host, a very long shot. My likelihood:

    Regional 2 seed: 50%
    Regional 3 seed: 25%
    Regional 4 seed: 15%
    Regional 1 seed: 10%

    We have the number 1 SOS. However, our schedule was front loaded with ranked teams. We went 3-1 last week taking the series at Mizzou and our RPI dropped from #10 to #18 on Warren Nolan.

    I put our chance at closing so strong as to get a top 8 national seed at 0%. That and hosting likely went out the window with our poor start to the season.
  3. missourigator
    Offline

    missourigator Member

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Messages:
    835
    Likes Received:
    21
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +103
    Just need to stay above 500 and we are in. Our schedule is just super tough. But while we started winning we still make the same mistakes, i.e. base running and not getting people in from 3rd with one or no outs for example. I doubt we make it out of the regionals probably a 3 0r 4 seed. But a month ago I gave up on this team and they may me regret that.
  4. ETGator1
    Offline

    ETGator1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    11,052
    Likes Received:
    42
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +150
    We cut down on errors and started winning some of the one run games. This team has improved.
  5. taxman22
    Offline

    taxman22 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2007
    Messages:
    456
    Likes Received:
    12
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +66
    I think anything above .500 and we should be in. This team is gritty, and could make some noise in the tourney. They are similar to Vandy/Arky/Miss State last year.....and all teams made some noise in the tourney. Crawford could shut someone down in a game one matchup and you just never know. At any rate, with what we lost and the injuries.....I think the team has progressed nicely. Hopefully they can keep the foot on the gas and close. The back end of the schedule is much more favorable for us. Go Gators, and go out an support the team. They are fun to watch.
  6. HungryGator
    Offline

    HungryGator VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2007
    Messages:
    2,766
    Likes Received:
    12
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Maxville, FL
    Ratings Received:
    +20
    If we end up playing in Tallahassee, that should almost guarantee a trip to Omaha. We're undefeated there in major sports this year.
    • Like Like x 1
  7. DoubleDown11
    Offline

    DoubleDown11 Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2007
    Messages:
    2,462
    Likes Received:
    19
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Ratings Received:
    +74
    We're all but guaranteed to travel to an ACC site. Virginia, UNC, NC State, and FSU are all going to host, plus Clemson and Georgia Tech can still make cases with strong finishes. Our RPI and SOS numbers are strong enough that we could be a 2 seed, but I'm not sure a 2 or 3 matters all that much in the grand scheme this year.
  8. gtr2x
    Offline

    gtr2x Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2007
    Messages:
    11,424
    Likes Received:
    300
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +469
    Yea, unless there is a major change, should be a 2/3 seed on the road. Now if the Gators somehow win the LSU series in BR, things could change.
  9. jsc28
    Offline

    jsc28 Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    2,995
    Likes Received:
    13
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Ratings Received:
    +19
    If the season ended today, I think we would be a 2 seed.
  10. WESGATORS
    Offline

    WESGATORS Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    21,082
    Likes Received:
    162
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +528
    Looks reasonable, but I would toss the idea of getting a #4 seed altogether. That would be a cruel joke to play on a #1 seed.

    Finish #4 in the SEC with an 18-12 SEC record, and I think we are in the discussion for regional hosts. I don't think we catch Arkansas, and SC has a tough remaining schedule. Still teams like MSU are in contention to host this year as well.

    Not to look too far ahead, but win the series against LSU and I think hosting is legitimately on the table. Get swept at LSU and we're back to just hoping we make the Tournament.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
  11. MatsideObserver
    Offline

    MatsideObserver Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2008
    Messages:
    753
    Likes Received:
    11
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +32
    NO DOUBT. Since we eliminated NC State and GTech last year, I see us being sent to one of those locales.
  12. taxman22
    Offline

    taxman22 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2007
    Messages:
    456
    Likes Received:
    12
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +66
    Can't get swept at The Box, gotta find a way to win a game there. LSU might be the best team in the country.
  13. WESGATORS
    Offline

    WESGATORS Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    21,082
    Likes Received:
    162
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +528
    Just went back to check. Most notable "not hosts" from the SEC since the expansion to 64 teams:

    2000 - FLORIDA (18-11 in SEC, #8 RPI, lost in SEC Tournament final to #2 national seed LSU)
    2012 - Kentucky (18-12 in SEC, #16 RPI, 2-1 in SEC Tournament (lost in semi-final))
    2003 - South Carolina (19-11 in SEC, #22 RPI, 1-2 in SEC Tournament)
    2009 - Alabama (18-11 in SEC, #31 RPI, 1-2 in SEC Tournament)

    In all four cases, these were the 4th best teams in the SEC record-wise but not necessarily the 4th best SEC team in the RPI. In each of these 4 seasons, the NCAA Tournament selected only 3 SEC host schools. I think 2000 is the year people used to think of when thinking that there couldn't be 3 host schools in the state of FL, but I think that was an anomaly given a fairly new bracket that they worked out and haven't made a mistake like that since.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
  14. DoubleDown11
    Offline

    DoubleDown11 Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2007
    Messages:
    2,462
    Likes Received:
    19
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Ratings Received:
    +74
    This is going to be an interesting geographic tournament considering there will be no hosts in the state of Texas for the first time ever, and Oklahoma is just barely hanging on. Baseball America has 5 west coast hosts right now (both Oregon schools, ASU, UCLA, and Fullerton), so it's possible there could be an SEC team or two going out west just to make the numbers work.
  15. JohnC1908
    Offline

    JohnC1908 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    22,063
    Likes Received:
    777
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Neptune Beach, Florida
    Ratings Received:
    +786
    If UF is above .500 they'll definitely get in, the question would be will they host a regional.
  16. dadx4
    Offline

    dadx4 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    28,331
    Likes Received:
    391
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Greenville SC
    Ratings Received:
    +773
    As long as we keep winning like we have lately this could be a LOT of fun for seed and where we go.
  17. gatorbogey
    Offline

    gatorbogey Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    33,130
    Likes Received:
    20
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    s. e. florida
    Ratings Received:
    +24
    we've responded lately to the challenge. we've had to win and we're winning. every game is vital. every inning. every at-bat. we're learning to be clutch in these key situations. love the sense of urgency. it's like we've been in post-season mode for a month now.
    should bode well in the future.
  18. MatsideObserver
    Offline

    MatsideObserver Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2008
    Messages:
    753
    Likes Received:
    11
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +32
    Oregon State was sent to our regional a few years back, maybe a return trip is in order.

Share This Page