Free Throw Shooting Percentages

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by themistocles, Jan 4, 2014.

  1. themistocles

    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    According to NCAA statistics for all games through Jan 2nd, the Gators rank 255 Nationally in Free Throw shooting percentage at 66.6% (2 of 3), just barely ahead of #256 Kentucky at 66.5%.

    http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/150/p6

    Kind of interesting that the two teams most think have the greatest chance of winning the SEC, are both far, far down the list on shooting free throws which are likely to become more important this year than in the past due to the new rules, depending, of course, on how specific refs call a game.
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  2. rserina

    rserina VIP Member

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    I suspect we are much, much improved by the end of the conference season. Wilbekin and Hill will both improve with more opportunities. I would be shocked if we aren't a 70% team. We won't be good, but there is plenty of room for improvement. The only guy I don't see getting better is Young, but that is no surprise.
  3. HallGator

    HallGator Administrator VIP Member

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    Hopefully Walker will be a bit better at the line and we can have him in there in late game situations where the other team is fouling a lot.
  4. themistocles

    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    Another weird National Statistic - Just out of curiosity, I kept look at various factors and discovered, much to my chagrin, that my very consistent statements: "If this team could shoot they would be dangerous" is not appropriate this year, because no one can shoot.

    Nationally, only two teams are shooting at or above 50%, Weber St. at 50.6% and Creighton at 50.1%. UF is 14th at 47.8% followed again by Kentucky, at 47.5%. - The Gators are also 55th national in 3-point percentage at 37+%. http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/148

    I too expect the team to improve with more reps, but Free Throws are not a team strength (as I noted, not for Ky either).
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  5. REM08

    REM08 Well-Known Member

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    For context, the last eight national champs:

    2013 UL - 71%
    2012 UK - 72%
    2011 UConn - 76%
    2010 Duke - 76%
    2009 UNC - 75%
    2008 KU - 70%
    2007 UF - 69%
    2006 UF - 74%


    If any team is at 66%, right now, I find the thought of significant improvement in the overall percentage unlikely due to how far into the season we already are. The question I'd wonder is whether or not a team shooting 66% so far could improve to where they're 70ish % for the second half of the season. I don't see this being unrealistic at all.

    I actually wonder how much FT% matters. Maybe better teams generally happen to shoot higher percentages from the line. But couldn't there then still be a good team that doesn't? Does that mean they're not a good team, or just a good team that doesn't happen to convert a high %? Maybe they're just better at something else. Surely Pomroy has written about this...
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2014
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  6. chunks1

    chunks1 Active Member

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    Does nt mean you are not a good team, but come tourney time it will cost you.
  7. rserina

    rserina VIP Member

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    At this time last year, the eventual Final Four teams had the following free throw percentages: Louisville - 69%; Michigan - 72%; Syracuse - 63%; and Wichita St. - 67%. The previous year's were not too different: Kentucky - 71%; Kansas - 68%; Louisville - 68%; and Ohio state - 68%. You could probably do these for every reason in recent memory and we aren't that far off the mark. I simply don't think history bears out a direct correlation between below average free throw shooting and tournament failure.

    Now, you would have to be sticking your head in the sand to deny the fact that it could hurt you. No question about that. It is a problem for us right now and it could potentially bite us in the rear. But it seems to me the real issue with free throw shooting is that it often negates what you have done so well over the course of a game. If you fail to guard the three point line or don't rebound the ball or turn it over, then you are going to be clawing uphill just to stay in the game. However, you could completely outplay your opponent only to see that lead mitigated or overcome by poor end of game shooting.
  8. rserina

    rserina VIP Member

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    Do you attribute that to the new rules? I've been trying to get my head around their effect to date and just can't quite make sense of it. One thing I expected was a preponderance of fouls, which has been somewhat true at times, but the inconsistency of officiating has really made it heard to measure. Some games, they simply don't call hand checking at all. Or, like today, they don't call it for 32 minutes, then call it every other possession the remainder of the game. Same with the arm bar in the post and continuation. They are simply not called consistently. Now, that shouldn't be surprising because officiating is always inconsistent owing to any number of factors, but when you have a number of new rules in place intended to change the dynamic of the game, those inconsistencies stand out a little more and seem to gave a greater impact since teams are making a conscious effort to adapt their play.

    At this stage, the new rules have definitely benefited us when called, chiefly Casey Prather. But in general I think we are still seeing more negative than positive consequences. Hopefully that changes in the conference slate.
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  9. chunks1

    chunks1 Active Member

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    If you are head and shoulders better than your opponent then no ft percentage not a biggie, but when you are in a game where opponent is of equal ability then ft percentage matters. That being said the only real issue i have seen has been with the guards and or Prather that have to handle the ball at the end of the game. Certainly 50 to 60 percent is not gonna get it done. If Wilbie ,Hill, and Prather collectively can shoot say 68 to 72 percent for the duration of the season then i like our chances.
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  10. red4512

    red4512 Premium Member

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    FT's have to be Billy Ds biggest concern heading into SEC play.
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