For those pronouncing electric cars dead

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by oragator1, Aug 25, 2013.

  1. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Really? You cannot get gasoline at home. If you could, you probably would. But because you cannot, you literally need to go somewhere.

    That isn't the case with electric vehicles. The majority will be charged for daily use at home.

    What's confusing about that?
  2. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    What's confusing is your vast majority comments. People take long trips. People have long commutes. Unless Im missing that these cars will go 1000 miles on a charge? If that's the case then different story. You are still going to need a fairly substantial infrastructure for this. I don't know how people can't see that.
  3. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    I think you're not understanding the "analog" part. We don't need a 1:1 replacement for gas stations in that instance. In fact, we'd need far, far fewer and in specific spots.

    There's a gas station on every corner now. That's not necessary for electric charging stations.

    You realize this, right?
  4. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    I am aware of what analog is referencing. I didn't say it needs to be 1:1. I think 1:5 is not out of reality.

    How many years do you think we have until 40-50% of the cars on the road are of this variety? Just curious on your thoughts.
  5. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    50? I'd say 25 years.

    1:5 still seems extremely high. The vast majority of driving is done in daily commutes and with the speed of technology we'll probably be at 500+ mile charges in a decade.
  6. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Actually a decade is really conservative given the S is already at 300 miles. We may be at 1000mi ranges in a decade.
  7. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    I just don't see 500+ mile charges at a semi-mass produced affordable price in a decade. If we have them, and they cost more than 35-40K, then it doesn't do a lot of good.

    I think overall, 1:5 is about correct. Along interstates in a lot of areas, it is going to need to be 1:2. In towns is where the drop off would be much greater.
  8. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    I don't see that at all. Charging out and about will be extraordinarily rare as compared to filling up (which again must be done out and about).

    The highest range 6 years ago for pure electric was 60 miles and now it's 300. I'm not all that worried about them breaking 500 nor making them in the sub-$30k range in 10 years.
  9. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    We will have to wait, grow older and see.
  10. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Sure. Moore's Law has been pretty dependable, though.
  11. dogzilla
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    dogzilla Member

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    Supercharging is not free. You pay $2,000 up front for the ability to use the SC stations if you have the 65 kWh battery. But it is "free" if you buy the larger 85 kWh battery you say! If you consider an up-front cost that is included in the price of the car to be "free" then Tesla is certainly happy. In this case, the upgraded battery with included SC capability is a $10,000 option.

    If you did buy the 65 kWh car and didn't order your car with the SC option, you can't use the superchargers as the hardware isn't installed. I believe they charge $2,500 to add the option after you take delivery. Same with the in-home high performance charging capability which is a $2,700 option, however, they don't state whether this can be added after delivery. Both options require additional hardware installed in the car.

    I'm not knocking EV's as I'd much rather have an EV with a generator aka "range extender" like the Volt than a hybrid. I'd just rather be honest about the costs.
  12. exiledgator
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    exiledgator Gruntled Premium Member

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    obob fleshed out my point quite well, I'd just like to add that with 2.28 cars per household in the USA, we need almost zero charging stations for EVs to grow.

    We have a minivan and a commuter car in our house. I'd happily make that commuter an EV if I could leave w/ 300 miles in the tank every morning. That vehicle never makes "road trips". That's what the minivan is for.

    The entire point is, infrastructure is not the rate limiting step to EV growth. Range (Tesla now solving this) and price (Tesla is promising to solve this next) have been the rate limiting steps.

    As I posted earlier, there are also some fascinating models of delivery being floated out there that could completely reinvent car sales, driving, and fueling.
  13. HallGator
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    HallGator Administrator VIP Member

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    Charging stations like anything else would increase as demand grows. I haven't checked but existing gas stations may be able to add them in to their sales if they have the room. When there is money to be made then someone will deliver.
  14. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    Range and Price and infrastructure(yes to a smaller degree but significant) are limiting the growth. That's three(or 2.5) big issues.
  15. demosthenes
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    demosthenes Well-Known Member

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    Price - Obviously a problem but it wasn't much more than a decade ago when people said the same thing about the $20,000 flat screen TVs when they first came out. Not so much of a problem now. Tesla is working on an SUV next and will follow that up with a car in the $30,000 range. Other manufacturers are already rolling out electric cars like the Leaf that are more affordable.

    Range - Most households have 2+ vehicles meaning they could switch one to electric with no change in lifestyle. The average American drives fewer than 40 miles per day which means even the Leaf is more than capable of handling most daily chores. This illustrates it well:
    [​IMG]


    Infrastructure - Most people will charge at home at a time when the utility companies have excess capacity. Should you want to road trip it, look at how fast Tesla is developing a Super Charging station network. Move to summer 2013 and you can see how many stations are already up.

    Map of Tesla Supercharging Stations
  16. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    I will believe it when it becomes reality. I think that is fair.
  17. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Well it's following a very clear trajectory toward that reality. You couldn't buy an electric vehicle for less than $30k a few years ago, you can no. You couldn't charge the car at home a few years ago, you can now. You couldn't get 100+ mi range a few years ago, you can now.
  18. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    So, 5 years from today...what percentage of new cars sold will be all electric? Just looking for a prediction. Also 10 years from today?
  19. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    I have no idea what percentage it is currently, but I'll say more. And then in 10 years even more.
  20. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    And then one day a gas station will be as much a curiosity as a pay phone is today.

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