Florida Full Strength vs Depleted

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by Wormwood56, Oct 23, 2013.

  1. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    You da man! Do I get a rep? Show me some love...:D

    Seriously, there is no reason why anyone should not get along here. We may disagree on things, but that shouldn't mean anything. I mean, I disagree with my wife all the time, as she does with me, and neither of our belongings are on the front doorstep...
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  2. gatorchamps0607
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    gatorchamps0607 Always Rasta Premium Member

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    Its not your fault Worm, Im just an ornery bastid. ;)
  3. msa3
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    msa3 Premium Member

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    Hey Worm --

    Okay, back at the numbers.

    The problem is the omission of information in regards to comparative seasons. For example, in '92, UF lost three season games but won the east, losing to eventual NC Alabama in the SECCG. They also beat UGa and got better as the season went along, losing two of those three games early. There was improvement through the year (it also started two true freshmen at tackle, Jason Odom and Reggie (?) Green. In '99, they again won the east, beating both Tennessee and UGa before losing to top-ranked FSU, Bama in the SECCG and the bowl. UF lost four but finished the season ranked 12th. So in both of SOS's four-loss, starter-deprived seasons, one of the losses was the SECCG. They won the East both times.

    As for Meyer, his first year was his first year. In '07, Tebow won the Heisman, so there was excitement and optimism that followed through the season, and that team never fell out of the top 20. Even in the trainwreck of '10, UF only lost five.

    I think there's real lessons here. The first is that in a dozen years, SOS only replaced double-digit starters twice, so there's something to be said for managing your player flow, who plays, who develops, who starts. The second is that even if you lose more than you want, its not unreasonable expectations for them to be in contention for something.

    It also shows to me that the lack of returning starters isn't quite the kiss of death you've made it out to be. At least it hasn't been historically that way for the Gators, not if you look beyond the numbers.
  4. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    The trend of players leaving early has picked up a huge amount since the 90's. Not that you may not have a point about roster management... but this team would look a ton different with Elam, Floydd and Reed still on it.

    Nobody would score on the defense and we'd have a legit pass catching TE.
  5. acegator
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    acegator Member

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    Are you a VT fan only or a VT fan and a Gator fan?
  6. seanymac
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    seanymac New Member

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    Were there a lot of 3 year stretches for VT in which their offense couldn't crack the top 102?
  7. SeaCay
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    SeaCay Well-Known Member

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    I'd want to look at some isokinetic testing of quad v. hamstring strength before I would agree with this statement.
  8. UF24ou14
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    UF24ou14 Well-Known Member

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    Before the season I thought we'd be 7-5 due to the number of defensive players that we lost, and that was before all the injuries, so I'm not surprised we are losing games. I am, however, surprised and disappointed by the lack of improvement in some areas of the team. I realize the Oline has lost potential starters to injury and dismissal, but my God, are our linemen really so bad that they can't block for anything we attempt to do? We keep hearing about poor communication. Who's responsible for that? As far as injuries are concerned and who should be blamed, you can't blame someone for injuries that occur in a football game unless they actually caused the injuries. I remember in the 70s we had a running back named Darrell Williams that injured his hamstring walking down the steps from class, so missteps and injuries do occur. Then on the field you have 300 lb men falling on each other and smaller men as well. So yeah, there are going to be injuries when big people run full blast into each other, and they aren't anyone's fault.
  9. magnafides
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    magnafides Well-Known Member

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    Worm, while it's nice that you took all of that time to compile the stats, they're really not that applicable to the way most of us feel (in my opinion).

    The people that are the most disappointed and down on the current staff aren't just looking at our potential record (which could feasibly be 5-7), they're looking at the product on the field.

    We look downright INCOMPETENT on offense and some of the personnel decisions/playcalling have been puzzling, to say the least. We were dominated by a Big 12 team... embarrassed by a Freshman backup QB. Oh, and don't forget about the boneheaded penalties that we seem to commit week after week.
  10. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    I am a Gator (Class of '82), and a VT fan, a result from having a close association with Virginia Tech for over a decade.

    If they had to play head-to-head for all the marbles, I would root for Florida to win by a last second FG.

    There is no commandment in the CFB bible that says you can only root for one team, particularly if the two teams never meet. It isn't a zero sum game.
  11. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Virginia Tech, 2000-2013

    Year-------Total Offense--------Total Defense--------W/L Record

    1999..................9th..........................4th..................11-1
    2000................20th...........................7th.................11-1
    2001................64th..........................32d...................8-4
    2002................64th............................2d.................10-4
    2003................38th..........................51st..................8-5
    2004................65th............................4th................10-3
    2005................57th............................1st................11-2
    2006................99th............................1st................10-3
    2007..............100th............................4th................11-3
    2008..............103d.............................7th................10-4
    2009................50th..........................12th................10-3
    2010................41st..........................52d.................11-3
    2011................35th..........................10th................11-3
    2012................81st..........................18th..................7-6
    2013..............110th............................2d...................6-1

    For the most part, there is a pattern. The improvement on offense in 2009 was due to Tyrod Taylor being the full time starter. The collapse last year and this year (on offense) is the lack of a functioning OL - just like Florida.

    Indeed, UF and VT are probably the two schools most similar to one another in the nation. VT has an easier schedule this year, which accounts for the difference in the W/L records. Otherwise, they would also be 4-3 if they were in the SEC.

    Both have the same philosophies. Both teams offenses drives their fans crazy. After last year's debacle, they finally demoted their OF, Brian Stinespring, whom in the eyes of their fans was what Addazio, Zaun, Hoke, Pruitt and Zook COMBINED were for Gator fans - the Universal Bogeyman. Both live and die with their defenses.
  12. phideltgator
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    phideltgator Well-Known Member

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    I am also a duel-fan and get very little respect.
  13. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Agree that attrition and injuries are legit reasons to expect a down year this year, but that our OL performance is not excusable. Far too many missed assignments, in addition to getting physically beat.
  14. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Ok. But what you say is not unique. Yes, we lost two of our first three games, but got better throughout the rest of the year. Let's dig a little deeper, OK?

    Opponent----------W/L Record-----------Outcome

    Kentucky......................4-7..........................W 35-19
    Tennessee...................9-3..........................L 14-31
    Miss State....................7-5..........................L 6-30

    Now lets look at the winning streak:

    LSU...............................2-9..........................W 28-21 (7 pt win over a 2-9 team?)
    Auburn..........................5-5-1.......................W 24-9
    Louisville.......................5-6 (mid major).......W 31-17
    Georgia.......................10-2..........................W 26-24
    Southern Miss...............7-4 (mid-major).......W 24-20 (4 pt win over a mid-major)
    USCe.............................5-6..........................W 14-9
    Vandy............................4-7..........................W 41-21

    Only ONE team in that stretch was considered to be a good team, and we barely beat them. Then we played two good teams:

    Florida State................11-1..........................L 24-45
    Alabama.......................13-0.........................L 21-28

    Against winning AQ conference teams, we were 1-4. Zook did MUCH better in 2003, with a far tougher schedule. The 1992 team was Spurrier's weakest, and one of the weaker non-sanction teams Florida had since 1981.

    Yes, but the other teams had opponents as good or better than the SECCG opponents, which is why I included those games. Compare 1992 and 1999 with 2003 and 2011 (AQ conference teams only):

    2011 Opp-------W/L---2003 Opp------W/L---1999 Opp------W/L---1992 Opp-----W/L

    LSU.....................13-1.....LSU.....................13-1....FSU.....................12-0....Alabama........13-0
    Alabama..............12-1....Miami...................11-2....Alabama..............10-3...FSU................11-1
    USCe...................11-2....Georgia................11-3...Alabama..............10-3....Georgia.........10-2
    Georgia...............10-4....Tennessee...........10-3...Alabama................9-3....Miss State.......7-5
    FSU.......................9-4.....Ole Miss...............10-3...Georgia.................8-4....Auburn...........5-5-1
    Auburn..................8-5.....FSU......................10-3...Kentucky...............6-6....USCe..............5-6
    Vandy....................6-7....Arkansas................9-4...Auburn..................5-6....Kentucky........4-7
    Tennessee............5-7....USCe......................5-7....Vandy...................5-6....Vandy.............4-7
    Kentucky...............5-7....Vandy.....................2-10..LSU.......................3-8....LSU................2-9

    Total...................79-38 (.675)....................81-39 (.675)..................68-39 (.636)..61-42-1 (.591)

    Top Seven Opponents:

    Total...................63-17 (.788)....................74-19 (.796).................60-25 (.705)......55-26 (.679)

    Florida won the SEC East because the competition was easier in 1992 and 1999 than it was in 20003 and 2011. But granted, the 2011 team wouldn't have won any of them. The 2002 and 2003 teams would have, however.

    What does this mean? Everyone's first year is their first year.

    So the excitement of Tebow masked an otherwise mediocre team? And you could say that the ranking was reflective of what occurred from 2006, dont you think?

    And Florida was ranked 20th at the end of the regular season in 2002 and 17th in 2003, in spite of tougher schedule and no benefit of the doubt given to the head coach, which is key. Rankings are subjective.

    This could be said of most of the down years. Not just 2010. But Florida was unranked heading into their bowl game.

    Sure helps when you inherit a full cupboard, rather than an empty one.

    That all depends on the quality of the competition.

    You looked at the numbers rather subjectively, frankly. I notice you didn't do much research into justifying or defending Zook's or Muschamps down teams, and they have MORE information to justify their poor teams than SOS and Meyer had. That is the difference between subjective and objective analysis.

    The numbers don't lie. If Muschamp returns a team with only five new starters and people come back healthy, he will win 10 games. if he comes back from this year with an 8-4 record or worse with a full cupboard, then he is the worst coach we've had since Doug Dickey.
  15. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    I couldn't care less about that. If the people are so narrow and parochial in their thinking that they do not respect me for being able to have the capacity to root for two teams from two separate conference, they aren't worth knowing anyway.
  16. WESGATORS
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    Good stuff, Wormwood! It looks like the problem (i.e. deviations from the glory years) can be attributed to establishing consistency based on the number of returning starters.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
  17. msa3
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    msa3 Premium Member

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    I don't know about that. They were coming off probation where they lost 20 scholarships from 86-87, and lost another three from 91-92. And I'm not one who ever agrees that the cupboard is bare at UF, but I concede many others are inclined to think that Spurrier/Zook/Meyer left the program in shambles for their successors.

    You're right, I did look at the numbers with an agenda, as did you (as do we all). I didn't research Zook or Muschamp because they weren't the argument you were making -- you were saying that losing 10+ starters means you'll have a mediocre team, and both Spurrier and Meyer were examples of that. I don't disagree with the numbers, only with the parameters you chose to use. I'm not arguing that losing 10+ starters has a consequence; I'm arguing how bad that consequence should be allowed to be.

    If the team rights itself, beats GSU and Vandy and wins two of the big three left, I'd say it's a season on par with 2007 and your argument holds. But if they lose 5 or 6 or 7, then the reasons for it have to go beyond just the loss of starters from the previous year, and to me, it's an indication of piss-poor coaching going on.

    JOC, why's you leave Tennessee out of '92? They were 9-3, so the winning percentage goes up a bit if you include them. No biggie. It's also important to remember that the post-'06 teams had an additional regular season game allowed, which gave most of those teams an extra win. If you take out that gimme win, they end up at .645 overall and .729 for the top seven. A difference, but not as big of one and at some point this all becomes playing with numbers.

    I just thought of this in the shower: Do you think there's a connection between the returning starters number and talent evaluation? Coaches with less skill/confidence would be tempted to play mostly upperclassmen because it's the safer thing to do, while more aggressive/confident coaches play underclassmen more often because they are better at evaluating talent. I don't know if that's true, but I was trying to come up with a reason both Zook and WM have lost so many returning starters during their tenures. Assuming recruiting classes are fundamentally constant (20-23 a year), the less-risky play would be to play the older guys. Might explain why we haven't seen much Taylor or those two receivers who are supposed to be game-breakers. I don't know, but it seems to fit the pattern.

    Hope you're enjoying this. I think you make really good points, and its certainly a number to pay attention to.
  18. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    None of the coaches left the team in shambles when they left, but I never heard anyone say Zook left the cupboard bare. Only a few diehards said he underrecruited at LB, or something like that.

    Yes we do. There is no such thing as complte objectivity. Kudos to you for acknowledging that. I respect that.

    Actually, I said 12+ starters. But it matters, regardless who the coach is.

  19. trufloridagator
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    trufloridagator VIP Member

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    Thank you

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  20. trufloridagator
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    trufloridagator VIP Member

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    Fair but since we do a lot of compound movements, I'd guess we have less out of ratio strength issues than most

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