Firing Muschamp at season's end would be a bad idea.

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by CitRain12, Oct 22, 2013.

  1. ces1948
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    ces1948 Well-Known Member

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    I just don't know what makes people think Muschamp can turn it around, why should a 3rd year coach have to "turn around" something he's responsible for creating. His entire record as a head coach is right here in front of us and most of us have seen every single game he's coached. Where in his body of work are you getting the idea he's capable of producing more than what we've seen up to this point.
  2. gatorlaw71
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    gatorlaw71 Well-Known Member

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    "If we have to punt a lot, we ain't winning much around here."

    "We want to score touchdowns. We like those teams that kick field goals."
  3. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    More than 11 wins? Is that really the baseline around here?
  4. nortonis
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    nortonis New Member

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    I think reevaluating at the end of the season is certainly called for and I can't imagine that Will would disagree. The only pass I'll give him is that his first recruiting class wasn't really his - it was whoever stuck around from Urban. He has only had two of his own recruiting classes. Still, he has proven unsuccessful in terms of putting together a competent offense. The only question that remains for me is whether he will identify his mistake and rectify it, or stick with the status quo and go down quiet and "Pease"fully with the sinking ship. He is a first time chief and his decision will be telling.
  5. nortonis
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    nortonis New Member

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    We got lucky last year. Alabama would have massacred us in the SEC Championship. We had a horrible offense and a top 5 defense so we could hang with anyone. We got a few lucky bounces (Lafayette and SC turnovers) and when we faced a solid Louisville team, we got exposed. This year, we have a horrible offense and a top 25 defense. That is a recipe for 6 losses. The top 5 defense is the aberration. We need a top 20 offense and a top 20 defense. That will allow us to fight for an SEC Championship every year. I don't see a top 20 offense unless we make significant changes in the direction the program takes on offense.
  6. gator1986
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    gator1986 Well-Known Member

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    Lol! Love spurrier
  7. GATORAZ
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    GATORAZ Well-Known Member

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    why is the top 5 defense an aberration?
    How do you know Bama would have massacred us in the SEC championship? They didnt kill UGA.
  8. nortonis
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    nortonis New Member

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    It's just not sustainable in the long term. There are too many variables that will knock you out of the top 5 such as recruiting misses, unlucky (or lucky) bounces, transfers, injuries (see us this year), etc.

    Luckily, having a good offense and good defense are not mutually exclusive. We can have both. Creating a top 20 offense from scratch at Florida is much easier than maintaining a top 5 defense. Will obviously is talented on defense, so we should be able to easily maintain a top 20 defense that will be top 5 some years. Bringing in someone who has experience at running a high level offense for several years should be a top priority and will help us be successful.
  9. VanNoord
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    VanNoord Active Member

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    I love the story where Spurrier's UF kicker was attempting a long one to win the big game. Spurrier used the time out to talk to the kid about their golf games. Kick good. Gators win.

    As for the earlier post about Spurrier leaving UF high and dry, review your FSU game history and the athletic dept's refusal to back their coach vs. the scum at SOW.
  10. CockyInSeattle
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    CockyInSeattle Well-Known Member

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    Don't remember how long Spurrier coached at UF, but twelve years comes to mind (and I am too lazy to look it up). But I do know he won six SEC championships (1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2000) at UF.

    A coin toss to win the SEC isn't too shabby. It certainly would set expectations, regardless of how unrealistic.
  11. msa3
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    msa3 Premium Member

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    The statistical mean for the years you listed is 9.02 departing starters every year. So while there are variations, nine is what a coach should plan for.

    I studied the numbers you gave, and the won-loss records. There's definitely a drop off on the years with 11+ departing players, but the difference in won-loss record (with SOS and UM) is about 25%, ending those seasons with four losses (5 for UM in '05) So while the coaches had their worst years in the year they had 11+ departing starters, they hardly fell off the cliff. Tebow won the Heisman in one of those years. In '99, Spurrier's only year listed with more than 10+ he finished ranked 11th. In 2007, UM's team was ranked ninth at the end of the season. '10 is a different story for a lot of reasons, but even that trainwreck ended with five losses.

    After looking at all of it, two things stand out. One, I think a good coach limits the amount of starters they risk losing each year by managing their classes, giving younger guys the chance to play and develop. And two, while departing starters is certainly a factor, it's not the defining factor. When you're comparing it to the mean, you're talking about three guys. having three fewer returning starters than the average should not doom a season. Not if the coach has prepared for it.

    PS -- thanks for putting together the numbers. That was a fun way to spend a half hour instead of ... whatever it was I was supposed to be doing :)
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2013
  12. ces1948
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    ces1948 Well-Known Member

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    I saw a team that had 11 wins last year but I sure didn't see an 11 win team.

  13. chemgator
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    chemgator Well-Known Member

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    I remember when Urban Meyer left and we lost our top recruit, some kid named Driskel. I wonder what happened to that kid?
  14. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Then you weren't paying attention.

    I suspect, though, a lot of this was tempered by the bowl game; we left the regular season feeling pretty good about our team, only thinking "what if" for a handful of plays.

    In either case, we weren't gifted 11 wins last year. We earned them like any 11-win team. To pretend otherwise is revisionism in an attempt to diminish very real accomplishments.
  15. BastogneGator
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    BastogneGator Well-Known Member

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    I have to agree with ces here. Last year was a product of a fantastic defense and an unsustainable turn over margin. It was not the traditional formula for an 11 win season to be sure and I was not "feeling pretty good, and thinking what if".
  16. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Gotta stop you there.

    It may not be OUR traditional formula (although 2006 wasn't entirely dissimilar), but that doesn't negate the fact that the team was very good last year. I find "unsustainable" totally specious, of course. The margin, is of course, an average of the 13 games we played, so it was self evidently sustainable.

    I mean think about it, you're saying "we really weren't very good because we just had a great defense and an offense that didn't turn the ball over much."

    Sort of silly, no?
  17. BastogneGator
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    BastogneGator Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it's an attempt to diminish anyone's accomplishments I think it is an honest assessment of where the program is right now under the current regime. The big question is will this philosophy work and people are trying to make accurate assessments and maybe some predictive analysis.
  18. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Sure, but "right now" is not last year.

    Is it "will this work?" or "can it work?" Because if it's the latter (and it should be), the answer is demonstrably "yes."
  19. BastogneGator
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    BastogneGator Well-Known Member

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    You are picking and choosing periods of data for analysis. When looking at the results of said philosophy as a whole (last 3 years) the outlier is last year at 11-2. It is my assessment that this philosophy requires a lop sided turn over margin to be effective on the long term. I think this is unsustainable.
  20. BastogneGator
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    BastogneGator Well-Known Member

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    What your analysis has said is it worked once...

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