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Discussion in 'The Best of the Best' started by RayGator, Oct 1, 2013.
Weather looks ok for Sat. Was a bit surprised, but the forecast looks good.
I have two as well!! Help me out!
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Gotta give A&M a little credit with Arkansas not being able to stop that offense. But Arkansas essentially has a '1000-yard rusher' through only 5 games with their two- headed attack at RB. Their two leading WR's are averaging 17 and 19 yards per catch - 5 yards more per catch than our top WR's. However, their QB has only complete 54% of his passes. Tells me maybe they take more shots down field off play action that we'll have to be prepared for.
Chaney has definitely ran the ball more than he did at Tennessee, but we go vertical off of play action a lot more than Petrino did. Petrino ran a lot of intermediate crossing routes that got a lot of YAC but now we don't do much short stuff except to the RBs and FB out of the backfield
I'll go lower than Bob!!!!!!!!
And I think their new coach, Bret Bielema, will do a good job for the Razorbacks. I was a little surprised when he left Wisconsin. I have good friends in Cudahy, Wisconsin (south side of Milwaukee) and they have season tickets. I have been to a couple of games with them to see the Badgers play at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, a great game day atmosphere for a Big 10 school. Didn't hear anything negative about Coach Bielema from Badger fans. I think his record at Wisconsin was 68-24.
27-20 Gators win.
Fairly blind pick based on our tendencies to date, more than any knowledge of match ups with Arky.
Arky's defense isn't very good, but their offense can move the ball. I'm more worried about losing Easley for this game more than any other until we play Georgia.
I got that impression on Arky from what I've read and have similar concern on Easley... some of our play that "worked" against UK may be trouble against very good RBs.
But I'm guessing our offense dominates TOP with long drives, and our defense stays pretty fresh. Hopefully that's enough to keep their offense from getting in sync and on track.
We'll see soon enough.
Not sure what's up with our slow starts on D with the opposing O moving the ball so easily, but after tape of our UM and UK games, Arkansas may be thinking they can steal a quick 7 points by getting us off balance quickly before we can settle in. I'm thinking they go play-action VERY early - like 1st or second play, get yards in chunks and steal a quick 7, then try to beat us at our own game - TOP.
That strategy wouldn't surprise me. And it wouldn't surprise me if they do get a quick 7 the way we've been starting slow on defense.
But it would surprise me if they could execute and beat us at our own game from a ball control perspective. We're pretty darn good at it when we stick with it, and don't turn the ball over.
Keeping in mind that Fowler and Powell aren't exactly "true" linebackers, the four pure linebackers (Taylor, Morrison, Ball and Kitchens) we do rotate can all run with anybody. And Fowler and Powell are both very quick LB/rush end-types that can cover a lot of ground. Also, we line up with a nickel back on the field so often, that we barely have a conventional base defense on the field, that consists of four down linemen, three linebackers, and four DBs. Muschamp is creative with the way that he utilizes the nickel back. Our nickels are normally not only good in coverage, but they're also fantastic against the run. Brian Poole was playing excellent football before his ejection against UT.
The point I'm trying to make, is that we have a defense as athletic and fast as any in college football. I don't understand how you could watch us play and question whether or not our linebackers can tackle Collins in space.
I know it's fun to get excited about Arkansas being a possible "trap" game, but it's not going to happen this Saturday. In the words of Emmitt Smith, the Hogs are about to get blowed out on national television.
Yeah, I could see that happening. Though, Muschamp has been very vocal about how mad he's been with the early 1st Q defense. I'm sure they will be prepared.
I'm most worried about us not putting up points despite a bad defense. Arky will be stacking the box to compensate for their lack of talent on defense. IF we can throw the ball like we did against KY, we'll be perfectly fine.
As far as we go defensively, if we are having trouble with the run (a possibility, I think) we could easily stack the box and force them to pass the ball. We have the best secondary in college football, they won't win too many 1v1 coverages against us.
We're not going to put up points on anybody this year. That's just not how we roll. Whether we're up against a bad defense or not, 35 points is about as good as it's going to get offensively for us. Seriously, just forget about the prospect of hanging half a hundred on anybody. You're not ever going to see that with Muschamp on the Gator sideline.
We'll continue to do what it takes to win the game.
If I had to guess, we will need 25+ to win this game. I could be way off, but I think that's what it is going to take.
That said, I think we can absolutely score close to 30 a game. Advanced statistics would tell you that -- and some might argue this is more of a team problem than just variance -- we've actually just been on the wrong side of some variance. We are moving the ball as well as anyone in the country, but some turnovers have kept us from putting up the points. I think we'll start to see it translate into some more points for us, but I also think the reverse is true in that our defense is going to eventually crack a little bit.
Anyway, I'm not too worried about this game. I said 27-20, but I think that's almost worse case scenario. Barring a defensive TD, I doubt Arky will put up enough points to beat us.
I think a realistic goal, against a team like Arkansas, is to not let Williams and Collins get more than 150 yards. I have a feeling they'll tear off a couple of big runs, because they're a team that is committed to trying to pound it. The key is to not let them go crazy. And a big part of doing that is keeping them out of third-and-short situations.
Arkansas has always been one of those teams that like to get you to play down on their level. They've been that way since they joined the SEC. It changed a bit under Petrino, but I have a feeling that they're going to go back to being a team that "hangs around" in games under Bielema. You don't want to get into one of those ugly, nasty games where the ball is constantly being turned over. Because they'd love a game like that tomorrow night. That's about the only way they have a chance to win this one...