Failed Predictions from the man made Global Warming Community

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by MichaelJoeWilliamson, Aug 28, 2013.

  1. Gatorstooth
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    Gatorstooth New Member

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    I'm amazed that even with all the evidence provided that there are intelligent people who still believe global warming is a myth.

    http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence
  2. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    From the links



    Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013...ted-global-warming-study-finds/#ixzz2esuyVq1O
  3. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    From the WSJ;

    Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change

    A forthcoming report points lowers estimates on global warming


  4. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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  5. Gatorstooth
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    Gatorstooth New Member

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  6. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    facts are not ideological
  7. jimgata
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    jimgata Premium Member

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    Anything posted that denied MJW's links would be left wing info.
    Where are their denials that these reports are not accurate?
  8. Gatorstooth
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    Gatorstooth New Member

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    I know. So where are yours?
  9. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    Define independent. Is the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change not a political organization? Would you classify it as independent? Would you call NASA/GISS, led by avid political activist James Hansen as independent?

    Here's the original graph post:

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/earth-gains-a-record-amount-of-sea-ice-in-2013/

    And he lists the data source:

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.global.anom.1979-2008

    Here's the home page for this data source at the University of Illinois:

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/
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  10. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Thanks
  11. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    Data vs prophecy...data always wins.
  12. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Interesting choice of words, considering our conversations on evolutionary biology.
  13. Gatorstooth
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    Gatorstooth New Member

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    Real Science.com, eh? A website that says the Earth is only 5,000 years old is pretty useless. However I did look through the U of I site and it just said what they did without providing any evidence to disprove anything.
  14. jimgata
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    jimgata Premium Member

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    What's happened to co2? It seems to have eased off the warmers agenda.
    Since co2 is at or nearing 400, and warming seemingly not the disaster as Gore and others have predicted, ice in the artic and antartic has not melted, but increased, there will probably be another reason interjected in the conservation regarding warming.
    There has now been excuses that actually say natural occurences have been the cause of so many predictions failing.
  15. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    If you intend to disparage, please provide the link within the site to the "5,000 year old" earth you cite. Nonetheless, that doesn't change the graph or it's underlying resource. Again, please let me know if the graph is inaccurate in any detail.

    The simple data is the evidence...evidence that we aren't likely to have an ice-free Arctic any time soon, despite predictions to the contrary. That's the topic being addressed.
  16. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    Some are also suggesting that WE are the cause of some cooling due to our output of aerosols. So we humans are both warming and cooling the earth.
  17. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    Not to hijack the thread, but prophecies (and prophets) must be tested by measurable outcomes to ultimately have been considered to be prophetic. I know the climatologists prefer the word forecast, or prediction, but when the outcomes are analyzed, they are turning out to be poor prophets.
  18. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Yep. And regarding most of the AGW prophesies, they got them wrong.
  19. leogator
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    leogator Well-Known Member

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    Having spent a lifetime in the construction and analysis of simulation and optimization models, some lessons have percolated through:

    1. Be generous with error margins, because your model will exceed them
    2. Even if you think that you have all the variables you need, there is always one more unaccounted for.
    3. Proxy data have a lot of built in error and should be used with caution
    4. Be humble and circumspect when making predictions because they will come back and bite you
    5. State your assumptions clearly and your simplifications even more so. For example the input/output curve for a power plant is complicated and nowhere near the smooth and convex curve that we use in the models. Sometimes even experts in the field forget that and draw erroneous conclusions. They have to be reminded.
    6. Don't fall in love with your model(s). They are sure to let you down.
  20. jimgata
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    jimgata Premium Member

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    A model is no better than data it is given. Bad or biased info in, bad projections out.
    As Mark Twain said " there are lies, damn lies and statistics".

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