Expect ObamaCare Change - An interesting take

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by mocgator, Nov 11, 2013.

  1. mocgator
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    mocgator Well-Known Member

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    Dicky isn't right that often but it's an interesting take nonetheless.

    http://www.dickmorris.com/expect-obamacare-change/

    I predict Democrats in the House and Senate will force President Obama to stop canceling insurance policies and restore those he has already caused insurance companies to cancel. The party simply cannot go into the next election with tens of millions of voters angry with its members for costing them their health insurance. After the president made “If you like your healthcare plan, you can keep your healthcare plan” the signature statement of his administration’s policy, these cancellations carry too big a political price for his party to bear.

    The president, with his personal credibility at stake, will have to give in and void the HHS regulation. He cannot afford to have his legacy become one of a big lie that impacts tens of millions of Americans.

    What happens then?

    Without the cascade of new ObamaCare enrollments that would be generated by a stream of cancellations of current coverage, the enrollment statistics for ObamaCare will be pathetic. They will be a national joke, much as the glitches in the enrollment process itself has turned out to be.

    State statistics indicate that between 65 percent and 85 percent of the enrollments have been in traditional Medicaid (two-thirds under the new eligibility and one-third under the old standards). The number of ObamaCare enrollments is miniscule.

    People will soon learn that the fines for not having insurance are nominal — $95 is enough for a nice dinner and a movie, not a significant enough threat to force a single person to buy a policy that might cost him the equivalent of a car ($300/month). Nor will the threatened escalation of the fine in the out years to $250 do much to frighten people and cause them to enroll and pay a multiple of that sum for insurance they neither need nor want.

    Obviously, Congress will never raise the penalties and the IRS will do little to enforce them. The individual mandate will become a national farce. And so ObamaCare will likely have all of three or four million participants — if that! It will be dwarfed by the 100 million on Medicaid or the 170 million with individual- or employer-based insurance.

    That level of participation will never justify the administrative superstructure that has been created to run it. ObamaCare will fade into oblivion as a token program, the penalty for giving a party that nobody attended.
  2. fredsanford
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    fredsanford VIP Member

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    You do realize that a lot of these cancellations were the healthcos using Obamacare as a smokescreen to drop coverage on their least profitable customers, don't you?
  3. PSGator66
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    PSGator66 Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't matter Fred - no Obamacare no dropping.
  4. G8trGr8t
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    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    but think about how many new gubmnt jobs it will create

    think about it while you work today to pay taxes so the public employees can stay home on another paid holiday.
  5. Bushmaster
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    Bushmaster Well-Known Member

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    They will try to swing the pendulum back and the masses will accept it. Pubs would be well advised that the legislation to propose such should include a LOT of what they would like to change about it, like all the mandated crap that people don't need or want and that is too expensive.

    70 year old grandmothers do not need abortion coverage or birth control.
  6. GT Gator
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    GT Gator Well-Known Member

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    Everyone on both sides keep quoting the $95 fine (or the $250 fine in 2016). I don't know why because it's highly misleading and either side can use the real number to help their argument.

    The real number for the vast majority of people affected is 1% of their AGI in 2014 (and 2% and 2.5% of AGI in 2015 and 2106 respectively).

    The medium household income is about $51,000.

    That means that the majority of people facing a fine will pay more that $510 in 2014 and more than $1,275 in 2016. People making much less than the median household income will either qualify for significant subsidies or Medicaid. So, most people who are penalized will be pay far more that the $95 that keeps getting quoted.
  7. fredsanford
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    fredsanford VIP Member

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    However, you do realize that you only pay these fines if you are due a refund. Set yourself up for no refund and you pay no penalty.
  8. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    You should probably just stop reading Dick Morris articles when you see the words "I predict" anywhere in them.
  9. harwil
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    harwil Premium Member

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    Shab, as a parent whose self-employed daughter with an insurance plan which was specially crafted for her needs, which was cancelled for non-compliance with Obamacare and offered one with a bunch of things she didn't want or need and was $350 a monthy more, I want to thank Shab and his ilk for telling me what she has to have and that additional $350 a month.Will you please pay the overage?
  10. GT Gator
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    GT Gator Well-Known Member

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    The whole "you don't have to pay if you don't get a refund" claim is just bogus information put out by Rush Limbaugh.

    While it is true the ACA specifically says that people who do not pay the fine cannot be prosecuted criminally nor can they be accessed an additional penalty, that's all it says.

    It does NOT prohibit the IRS from (1) imposing interest on unpaid amounts, nor (2) using other means to collect unpaid ACA fines like payroll garnishment, property liens, or asset seizure.

    Trust me, the IRS will get their money if the penalties go unpaid.
  11. HallGator
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    While that may be true it's all about perceptions at this point. The average voter doesn't have a clue who or what caused it when they see their premiums going up. What they know is they see a lot of fingers being pointed at the ACA and that will heavily influence who they feel is responsible.

    To be brutally honest I think it is one of the biggest train wrecks I've ever seen. The intentions may be good but the implementation has been a major disaster.
  12. fredsanford
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    fredsanford VIP Member

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    When the law passed, I heard the exact same information from the MSNBC talking heads. I didn't talk about it much because I didn't have any verification.

    The penalty was specifically written into law to have no "teeth," thought they don't want it widely known.
  13. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    Go look on the exchange. A single female of her age will find plans much cheaper than that. She can probably get one for less than $100 per month with subsidies.
  14. diehardgator1
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    diehardgator1 Well-Known Member

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    Forbes thanks different and the fines are a little different than some thank



    "If you owe a penalty, you’re supposed to pay it with your income tax return. But there’s not much the IRS can do if you don’t pay. They can’t put you in jail or garnish your wages. In fact, about the only way the IRS can collect is if you’re due a refund. They can deduct the penalty from this year’s and future refunds.

    Some people won’t have to pay the tax. Even if you don’t have insurance, you’re safe if you have religious objections to health insurance, are an American Indian, are in jail, or are “not lawfully present” in the U.S., among other reasons. You’re also protected if buying insurance would impose economic hardship. That happens if it would cost more than 8 percent of your income (defined slightly differently of course).

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway...the-penalty-if-you-dont-get-health-insurance/
  15. G8trGr8t
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    who pays for the subsidies?
  16. gatorman_07732
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    gatorman_07732 Well-Known Member

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    It wasn't a smoke screen, it was that current policies in place did not fall within the mandated parameters set forth in Obamacare. I'm one of those people.
  17. gatordowneast
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    gatordowneast Well-Known Member

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    Fred WTF are you talking about? Do you even have a clue? I think not. My sister in law got cancelled from a $900 month plan by BCBS and the closest plan to hers was about $1200. She's a widow (55) living off investment income with 3 teenagers on her plan. But she had no birth control, maternity coverage, breast pumps, day after pill coverage and the 70 other items spelled out under the "new regulations". Fred, do you understand this? Have you not been watching news shows. People are parading daily in front of the cameras and these people had legitimate health care policies but they did not include the bull shit that President Dipshit wants everyone to pay for.
  18. harwil
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  19. mocgator
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    mocgator Well-Known Member

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    So just so I understand... you want us all to abide by a socialist expansion of healthcare... and then tell us how you think we all should get around it?
  20. fredsanford
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    fredsanford VIP Member

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    First off, all insurance is socialist by the modern, 2nd grader right wing definition.

    Second, I would be willing to bet the vast majority of refunds are paid to the very people to whom ACA would award subsidies. Therefore, this tax penalty helps to undo the redistributive nature of the program.

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