ESPN QB ratings Murphy #1 in NCAA for best game

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by lorigatormom, Oct 7, 2013.

  1. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    That article is ragging on current NFL Passer Rating system (among other NFL stats)... not QBR as far as I can tell.

    The complaints in the article actually help justify QBR, from what I can tell. For instance, it complains about a QB helping his rating by throwing an 8 yard checkdown, when the team needs 12 to get a 1st down.

    QBR as I understand it, does not reward that checkdown... at least not much, because it didn't move the chains. As I understand it, QBR also weights "garbage time" stats lower, and gives higher weight to plays when the game is in question. To me, that is meaningful... and tells a real story about "real QBs" like Kyle Orton who can run up some stats when it doesn't matter, but don't win games.

    I am not advocating that QBR is perfect or couldn't be improved, but it seems like a step in the right direction compared to current Passer ratings, if we want to evaluate the actual effectiveness of QB performance.
  2. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    No, it isn't. It's citing the high correlation between traditional passing efficiency and winning.

    In fact, I have to wonder how far you read the article, because it basically said the polar opposite of what you got out of it.

  3. tommyvee
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    tommyvee Well-Known Member

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    I agree QBR is a better indicator of QB effectiveness than Passer Rating. There's a reason Tebow's 4th quarter QBR was one of the highest that season in Denver.
  4. GatorCrazy11
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    GatorCrazy11 Active Member

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    Coming from you...?
  5. GatorCrazy11
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    GatorCrazy11 Active Member

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    IMO Tyler needs to face our toughest conference opponents before putting any real stock into his QBR or any other "advanced metric" the media hacks come up with.

    I swear, for all the talk about ESPN being a bunch of hacks, people sure love their services when they paint a rosy picture of our players.
  6. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Not sure why, but the link I pulled up when I first responded to you was this one: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/dr_z/10/25/rating.system/index.html

    Based on that link my comments stand - that article is definitely calling out the traditional passer rating (and other NFL stats) as flawed.

    I'll look at the other one though.

    Edit... I looked at the other article. It was definitely impressive in correlation between existing passer rating and team success. Will be interesting to compare the two moving forward, but it will likely be difficult for QBR to be a better predictor given how effective passer rating has been, according to that article.
  7. qwghlmgator
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    qwghlmgator Well-Known Member

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    I don't recall the OP saying "Tyler Murphy has a high QBR...that means he's proven he's the best QB in the country. Yay were never going to lose again!!" :roll:
  8. lorigatormom
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    lorigatormom Premium Member

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    It's not like other teams playing FAR easier schedules don't count into this, so it's dumb to discount TM's #s so far. Yes, hopefully he continues to play well, but how many top 20 qbs pad stats and play only 1-2 real times the entire year? So Murphy's #s don't count unless we're playing top 10 teams? That's not how it works........
  9. GatorCrazy11
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    GatorCrazy11 Active Member

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    My opinion is not that the numbers are worthless, but that I plan on keeping the pendulum close to the middle until we play our toughest conference opponents. Is that unfair?
  10. GatorCrazy11
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    GatorCrazy11 Active Member

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    Slow down, guy. No one is saying that.

    We just beat our toughest opponent to-date and Tyler Murphy played a great game. I'm very encouraged by that. But I think I'm being fair in saying that I wish to see what happens against LSU and UGA before jumping to either end of the spectrum. I'm entitled to that, right?
  11. GatorLaw25
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    GatorLaw25 Well-Known Member

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    LOL!!!
  12. lorigatormom
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    lorigatormom Premium Member

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    I'm just saying you can't discount the numbers so far, as many want to do, as if his stats ONLY count if we're playing a top 10 team. Most teams in the top 15 only play 1-2 of those all year (if that). Hopefully the whole team will play well against LSU, including Murphy.

    If the gators and Murphy were playing Ohio State's schedule our fans would be saying "our qb numbers shouldn't count......"
  13. dawny
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    dawny Premium Member

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    Murphy is a angel sent , We would not be 4/1 if JD was still playing, he reminds me of Danny W. so much with a Game Manager.thank you, go Gators, should start lighting them up soon.
  14. coldsteel120
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    coldsteel120 Active Member

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    The eye test so far, Murphy is a better QB than Jeff. Not sure what coaches saw regarding TM and JD. Maybe JD is a great practice QB. All I know is in game situations TM looks composed and in control. I rarely sensed that in regards to JD when he was leading the team.
  15. grumpy_gator
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    grumpy_gator New Member

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    Hells yes, I'm down ... :smoke:

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