Early Entry Watch

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by BengermanV, Apr 8, 2014.

  1. BengermanV
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    BengermanV Well-Known Member

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    Most reports say that Kasey Hill and Chris Walker will be back in Orange and Blue next year. Everyone agree?

    Elsewhere, Johnny O'Bryant has declared for the draft.

    Others to watch for in the SEC:

    Jarnell Stokes (Tenn)
    Bobby Portis (Ark)
    Jabari Brown (Mizz)
    Jarell Martin (LSU)
    Andrew Harrison (Kentucky)
    Alex Poythress (Kentucky)
    Willie Cauley-Stein (Kentucky)
    Dakari Johnson (Kentucky)
    Julius Randle (Kentucky)
    Aaron Harrison (Kentucky)
    James Young (Kentucky)

    I think Stokes, both Harrisons, WCS, Randle, and Young are gone. Seth Davis said earlier today that there was "No chance" the Harrison's come back. I'm guessing there's a decent chance they do, but I wouldn't bet on it. Both are first rounders.
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2014
  2. tilly
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    tilly Superhero Moderator VIP Member

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    You forgot:

    John Calipari (Kentucky)
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  3. your_perfect_enemy
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    your_perfect_enemy Well-Known Member

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    Most reports say that Kasey Hill and Chris Walker will be back in Orange and Blue next year. Everyone agree? Yes or at least am extremely hopeful

    Elsewhere, Johnny O'Bryant has declared for the draft. I was not impressed with him but he was 1st team SEC so who knows

    Others to watch for in the SEC:

    Jarnell Stokes (Tenn)- he should go, he's not going to grow another 2 inches so I don't think he can help his stock any more
    Bobby Portins (Ark) who?
    Jabari Brown (Mizz) he's already put his name in I believe w/o an agent
    Jarell Martin (LSU) who?
    Andrew Harrison (Kentucky) gone
    Alex Poythress (Kentucky) I dont know what to think of him, cal leaving may benefit him more than anyone
    Willie Cauley-Stein (Kentucky) gone
    Dakari Johnson (Kentucky) Don't get the appeal of him at all, if he goes he'll make Daniel Orton's career look impressive
    Julius Randle (Kentucky) top 5 pick, gone
    Aaron Harrison (Kentucky) gone
    James Young (Kentucky) his stock won't be any higher, I question how he translates to the NBA thogh
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  4. ehurnie
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    ehurnie Active Member

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    I think that Hill is likely to come back will help even more with Walker's chances of coming back.
  5. ApexNC
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    ApexNC Well-Known Member

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    Should be a sticky thread until the deadline
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  6. jmac83
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    jmac83 Member

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    Lot of ground to be covered before Chris Walker has made any reliable decision about next year, I would think.
  7. candymanfromgc
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    candymanfromgc Well-Known Member

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    Young's stock is about as high as it's going to get. One mock had him early to mid 1st.
  8. candymanfromgc
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    candymanfromgc Well-Known Member

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    C Walker projected late 1st round if he enters. Why? Because a good team will take a chance they are getting a lottery pick a year early. Precisely why he should come back-a lottery pick a year later is well worth the wait.
  9. regurgigator
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    regurgigator VIP Member

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    That dunk in the championship game looked NBA level. :cool:

    I was surprised in the pre-game when Barkley said Young was the most talented player in the game (apparently over Randle & Daniels & Napier) and predicted he'd be a big key to UK winning. The Chuckster missed on his prediction that UK would win, but Young did a decent job of living up to the accolades IMO.

    (Young always shot the ball very well and scored well against us, but I hadn't seen him dunk like that before :eek: We had a player a couple of years ago who was capable of that kind of highlight play (i.e., Beal), although Beal wasn't shooting the outside shot as well as Young, but played better defense than Young (maybe due to Donovan requiring it).)
  10. BengermanV
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    BengermanV Well-Known Member

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    If I were a GM, I'd probably stay away from the Harrisons, Chris Walker, Bobby Portis, and WCS. I like Darkari Johnson, Randle, Kasey Hill, and James Young.

    If I'm Billy Donovan, I'm sure he could make an easy argument for Walker's return. David Lee, Al, Joakim, and Pat Young (to be determined, I guess) all will or already have benefitted from long term development at the college level. Then you look at guys like Kevin Rudolph or Hasheem Thabeet who have insane talent, but left before they developed any of it. It's easy for the NBA to stick you in the D-Leagues, but it isn't easy as a player to get back out of that level once you're there.
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  11. REM08
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    REM08 Well-Known Member

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    Mizzou's Jordan Clarkson also declared. Don't believe Jabari has yet though.

    I think UK loses their top 5 players, returning DJ, Poythress and Lee.

    Basketball-wise, I think Walker should return. Both he and Hill could see their stock sky-rocket with just a little more of a chance to show what they can do and improve. Hill needs to show that he can shoot, or learn to shoot. Walker is uncommon considering his raw athletic ability and his size. You cant' say the same of Hill. Little guys need to show more.
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  12. BengermanV
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    BengermanV Well-Known Member

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    The only reason I'd say Hill would probably be fine is because is speed is on an entirely different level, and he has good passing ability. I bet he nabs a few double doubles next year. He can also jump like crazy, and is a good rebounder for his size.

    As for his shooting, I'm not really sure what happened. Solid in HS, and solid late in the year. His stroke looks good, so I'm guessing it was just him adjusting to the game. I agree that he would benefit from at least another year, however. I think I've heard both Hill and Walker say they planned on getting their degrees while playing here, and the last player who said that was Pat Young. Still, I don't expect either of them to be here much longer than next year.
  13. REM08
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    REM08 Well-Known Member

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    Good point on Hill. Honestly, what you're saying reminds me of Rondo and I see a little of that. Hill isn't just fast, he's effortlessly fast. Almost looks like he's in his natural mode when he's near top speed. Seeing him full-time next year will be fun.
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  14. GatorLurker
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    GatorLurker Well-Known Member

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    Looking forward to it.
  15. mdfgator
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    mdfgator Well-Known Member

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    I think the kids a stud, he goes mid first at the latest.
  16. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    If he's guaranteed to go in the 1st round, he should go regardless.

    Let's say a team picks him because they want to get a lottery pick a year early as you say. If he waits, I'll show you picked 5th, 10th, and 14th (last lottery pick). In year 4, the team has the potion to pick up a player, but has to give them a certain % raise. It's very large for the bottom picks: 80%. They had to decide a year ahead of time, so they usually pick them up since it's cheap unless a player is a complete bust.

    The 5th year is a qualifying offer and another team can sign away for more. They can sign their 2nd contract up to 25% of the current cap since less than 6 years experience. Cap in 14-15 should be 62 million, so $15.5 million possible in the 5th year. Standard raise is 4.5% per year after that. I'll project that out 10 more years leaving him with a 15 year career making max money meaning only 14 years if he stays this year.

    I'll show you 25th and 30th if he comes out and is picked there. Salary is per year. Keep in mind that they can sign for 80% up to 120% of the amount shown. This is using the project salary amounts for 14-15 and 15-16. The zero is for the year he stayed in college.

    Code:
    25 $991,000  $1,035,600  $1,080,200  $1,945,440  $2,857,852  $15,500,000  $16,197,500  $16,926,388  $17,688,075  $18,484,038  $19,315,820  $20,185,032  $21,093,358  $22,042,559  $23,034,475  $198,377,362  80.10% 46.90%
    30 $911,400  $952,400  $993,400  $1,793,087  $2,689,631  $15,500,000  $16,197,500  $16,926,388  $17,688,075  $18,484,038  $19,315,820  $20,185,032  $21,093,358  $22,042,559  $23,034,475  $197,807,193  80.50% 50.00%
    5      $0  $3,117,900  $3,258,200  $3,398,600  $4,306,026  $5,709,791  $15,500,000  $16,197,500  $16,926,388  $17,688,075  $18,484,038  $19,315,820  $20,185,032  $21,093,358  $22,042,559  $187,223,293  26.70% 32.60%
    10      $0  $2,068,100  $2,161,200  $2,254,200  $2,874,105  $3,914,531  $15,500,000  $16,197,500  $16,926,388  $17,688,075  $18,484,038  $19,315,820  $20,185,032  $21,093,358  $22,042,559  $180,704,917  27.50% 36.20%
    14      $0  $1,684,600  $1,760,400  $1,836,200  $2,719,412  $3,782,702  $15,500,000  $16,197,500  $16,926,388  $17,688,075  $18,484,038  $19,315,820  $20,185,032  $21,093,358  $22,042,559  $179,216,099  48.10% 39.10%
    
     
    
    As you can see, in year 5, he basically catches up on a per year basis and in year 6, jumps way ahead. The jump would probably come in year 4 since anyone good enough to warrant that much is going to get locked up much quicker by the team that drafted them. Over his career, he'll have made 10 million more.

    It's a no brainer. If you're guaranteed 1st round, you come out. The 1st year stands out a lot as well. 1 million or nothing. If I'm from an ultra poor background, I can't resist. You could retire off the 1st contract easily.
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  17. BengermanV
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    BengermanV Well-Known Member

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    While a great post, I do think that there's something to adding longevity to your career. There's also the basic incentive of going straight to the NBA, as I'm almost positive if Walker went out he would have to deal with the D-League -- a hole that many never climb out of. I'd be interested to see the statistics on career longevity from late first rounders to early first rounders.
  18. buddhistgator
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    buddhistgator Active Member

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    Hill would not be drafted, so he is a no-brainer to stay until he develops a consistent outside shot.
  19. G8R92
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    G8R92 Well-Known Member

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    When Hill gets his outside shot, look out!
  20. GothamGator
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    D. Johnson is the kind of guy who is in a bind. He has great potential based on his athleticism and size, so the NBA should love him, but he clearly needs more development to be NBA ready. The problem is that he isn't going to develop at all with another season under Cal. So, what to do?

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