Dumbo Fisher Quote

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by largartos, Dec 22, 2013.

  1. benheb
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    benheb Well-Known Member

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    Not exactly what I asked but, peace, if that's what you're saying about about "top five" then we agree. Gators finished number 10 in the final AP and Coaches standings.

    Btw, do you remember that four teams we played that year finished ahead of us in those final standings? We beat three of them - two on their home field. A lot of the arguments on this board involve things that involve perception only - greatly skewed by bias. Some people (not saying you) think that an ACC 11-2 is just swell and our 11-2 that year was just dumb luck. They tend to be the same people too. They also tend to focus on the games we lost (to #4 and #12) with a very critical viewpoint. Just saying.....
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2013
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  2. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 Well-Known Member

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    This is very true.

    I disagree, because they are in a vaccuum. Texas has a baseline of a certain standard when they are great, a baseline when they are good, and a baseline when they are mediocre.

    Now I will say that not all five-loss seasons are equal. For example, let's look at all our seasons since 1990 where we lost four or more games, and count the number of opponents we had that finished the year with fewer than four losses/ties and look at the BCS opponents W/L record. We will also look at the number of new starters each team had.

    Year----------W/L Record--# Opp < 4 loss/ties------BCS Opp W/L---# New Starters

    1992.......................9-4....................4.........................................79-48-2 (.620)................12
    1999.......................9-4....................5.........................................78-52-0 (.600)................12
    2002......................8-5.....................3.........................................90-52-0 (.634)................12
    2003......................8-5.....................7.........................................95-47-0 (.669)................13
    2004......................7-5.....................5.........................................65-51-0 (.560)................13
    2007......................9-4.....................2.........................................80-54-0 (.597)................13
    2010......................8-5.....................2.........................................84-60-0 (.583)................12
    2011......................7-6.....................3.........................................85-45-0 (.654)................12
    2013......................4-8.....................3 or 4.................................78-53-0 (.595)................12+

    Now if you had to rank the best teams among those above, and the best coaching job, how would you rank them? Objectively giving a high to low ranking for each category:

    1992.........................1......................4.....................................................4.............................4................13
    1999.........................1......................2.....................................................5..............................4................12
    2002........................4......................5.....................................................3..............................4................16
    2003........................4......................1.....................................................1...............................1..................7
    2004........................4......................2.....................................................9..............................1.................16
    2007........................1.......................8.....................................................6..............................1.................16
    2010........................4.......................8.....................................................8..............................4.................24
    2011.........................8.......................5.....................................................2..............................4.................19
    2013.........................9.......................4 or 5.............................................7..............................1..................21 or 22

    Based on this very flawed criteria, I would say the best of the mediocre Florida teams are:

    2003 (by a large margin)
    1999
    1992
    2002
    2004
    2007
    2011
    2013
    2010

    Personally, I would swap 2013 and 2010 simply on the basis of the W/L record, but this is an objective ranking. IRT Texas, the same variables apply. When they went 5-7 ini 2010, they played only two teams with fewer than 4 losses, but their opponents W/L record was 73-44 (.624). In 2011, they played four <4 loss opponents with a combined W/L of 83-59 (.585). So like Florida and every other team, they have strong schedules and weak schedules.

    Well, as I stated before, there is only a 1-game difference in the quality of an SEC team versus an ACC team since 1990. That is an objective fact basd on head-to-head scores. FSU had only one opponent that had fewer than three losses. The SEC has four teams that could have run the table, based on the criteria, but LSU would not have been favored to beat Clemson. No other SEC team would run the table.

    Of course, the converse is true, and if FSU played Florida's schedule, they would have likely run the table as well. I think the only team that would be favored over FSU this year would be Alabama due to their offensive and defensive balance.

    Indeed. But it is certainly understandable why experts who see not only domination of every opponent, but also a gap of 86 points between the quality of FSU's and Auburn's defenses while the offenses are close would consider FSU a favorite.

    Auburn can certainly win this game, but if I had to bet the mortgage on it, I'd go with FSU simply due to the product they put on the field. This isn't the same thing as Ohio State and Florida, where the Gators had both a higher ranked offense and defense, as well as a tougher strength of schedule.
  3. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 Well-Known Member

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    First of, FSU are not "my boys." I've been a Gator fan for nearly 50 years and an alum for 34 years. Can YOU say that?

    Second, although they do have a weak schedule this year, they do NOT play a weak schedule year in and year out. Since joining the ACC, FSU has had the second toughest schedule in the nation, behind only Florida.

    It happens, but the loss to NC State was a clue, as well as close games to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. They had no such issues this year. The MNC talk died with the loss to NC State.

    The same could be said of Alabama most years.

    Not at all. I have freely said that the SEC is the best in the nation at the very top, but there is a dropoff where the rest of the teams tend to catch down, if you will.

    A pity you won't try to dissect it. I would have loved to hve seen the attempt to rebut the numbers.

    Mack Brown was more than a decent coach. At Texas, he went 166-52 over 17 years (.761). The previous decade Texas went 65-49-2 (.569). That is a difference of +.192 percentage points. By comparison, Spurrier, in a shorter career at Florida, had a 122-27-1 record (.816), after a decade where Florida went 76-38-3 (.662), when four years of the decade was hit with sanctions. Spurrier rise was +.154, not as high as Brown's.

    After building the train wreck from the ground up, Brown's last eight years at North Carolina was 67-26-1 (.718). Like Spurrier at USCe, Brown took a North Carolina team to its greatest run in their history.

    Les Miles is a great coach, but Brown is more accomplished. Only Saban and Meyer are more accomplished.

    {quote]But don't tell me he's great because of his ACC record. It's the ACC - the guys that can't sell tickets to their championship game - you know, the guys that are statistically comparable to other conferences (uhhh, when comparing third to bottom).[/quote]

    You can't fight the facts, so you mock. Pretty lame. But Florida State was in the ACC before Jimbo became head coach.

    FSU, 2001-2009: 74-42 (.638)
    FSU, 2010-2013: 44-10 (.815)

    A rise of +177.

    If you wish to discuss this as a rational fan, like many others here do, I would be delighted to talk to you, but if you are just going to spout convnetional wisdom blather without anything to support you but your opinion (neither of us are "recognized experts," so our opinion is useless without facts and data to support them), then don't even bother. I actually look things up.
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  4. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 Well-Known Member

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    There is a difference between talent and EXPERIENCED talent. Georgia had nearly as many injuries as Florida this year, but they lost 8 starters from last year, not 12. That is why folks picked them to win the SEC East. Before the season started, I didn't see us going better than 8-4, barring key injuries.
  5. rpmGator
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    rpmGator Well-Known Member

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    Only a fool would not worry about a conference that is on the roll the SEC is on.

    Until another conference can beat us for all the marbles they need to wait to after they win to talk.
  6. benheb
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    benheb Well-Known Member

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    No I can't because you're older than me - congrats.

    Please post where you got this info. Even if this is true (must be some sort of average) how does it correlate to your argument? Did FSU win anything when they had a tough strength of schedule? Since they joined the ACC? That was a while ago. Their SOS is low this year (seventyish range). And should have been low last year. Keep in mind that this entire discussion starts with Dumbo proving he's good by winning in the ACC - that premise is why I threw the bs flag.

    Not following this - the very low bar of going undefeated in the ACC is what is at issue here. You can't lose in the ACC and expect to accomplish anything of value because that conference is piss poor. The converse of that is winning a lot of games in the ACC does not make you a great or even a necessarily good team.

    So? What's the point? Alabama has essentially rigged the SEC so they don't have to regularly play the powers in the SEC East. Not surprisingly they are the most successful team in the SEC in recent years. Doesn't compare to the relative cakewalk of playing in the ACC - not even close and suggesting otherwise is not going to earn you any debating points.

    Okay - you based your whole argument on just comparing "third to bottom" - SEC to ACC. WTF? UF would do great most years if they could always avoid playing the top two teams in the SEC. FSU does well because they never have to play the top two teams in the SEC unless UF is one of them.

    I just think the numbers are meaningless because of where you started.

    Dude, picking out stats like "the rise" and "third to bottom" seems like cherry picking to me. I won't say "lame", just not convincing. When you're trying to overcome overwhelming "conventional wisdom", you have to come up with more IMHO. I'll admit that it is damn near impossible to boil down all the variables into a meaningful statistical argument - don't think you're close and burden of challenging conventional wisdom is on you. Not all of us spouters of it.

    So while I will refrain from mocking your argument, I will continue to merrily mock the ACC, their championship game (the most consistent joke in College Football),and their bowl performances (second most consistent joke in college fb). I will continue to assert that that there is a function that equates the value of records in ACC and SEC - something like ACC 11-2 is equivalent to SEC 8-4 or something like that but I don't pretend to know it exactly or even claim that it is knowable. Just conventional wisdom that is applied all the time in college football - especially due to that cherry picked stat of consecutive SEC Nat championships.
  7. MyakkaGator
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    MyakkaGator Well-Known Member

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    Great post. I believe it involves particular circumstances of the teams..for instance, 10-2 duke team is a great accomplishment given their football history. 11-2 is a good season for Florida, but considering their history the last 20-25 years it is expected. A losing season such as this year is no longer "old hat." It's much more expected of duke to have a losing season than Florida.
  8. Freddy02
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    Freddy02 Premium Member

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    My message would be stay in the ACC,” Bowden told Arute in a transcript provided by SiriusXM. “Do you want to win a National Championship at Florida State? You’ve got a better chance in the ACC than you have in the Big 12, or even the SEC.
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