Dumbo Fisher Quote

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by largartos, Dec 22, 2013.

  1. MyakkaGator
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    MyakkaGator Well-Known Member

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    I can see where you're coming from but aren't you the least bit curious to see what he can do with SEC talent? this will be, by far, the highest caliber athlete Roper has ever worked with so I'm a little intrigued...however I can still understand the buyers remorse. The results will come out in the wash.
  2. benheb
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    benheb Well-Known Member

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    That just isn't true. We didn't look legit top five when we beat LSU? What about USC? We didn't look legit top five against UGA? Oh yeah, they totally outclassed us with our insane luck and all. WTF - you can't just rewrite history because it doesn't fit your viewpoint. It was just last year - you need to wait awhile before you try to pull that.
  3. cistern
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    cistern Active Member

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    Seriously? Uh, no. No, we didn't look top five against Georgia.
  4. gottapanda
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    gottapanda Active Member

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    No vitriol intended, friend. I have no problem with you, just disagreed with your opinion on that one.
  5. benheb
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    benheb Well-Known Member

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    Well I guess we disagree. How high did Georgia finish? I remember that they almost beat the National champs in SEC champ game. Outclassed us on the field did they? I think our five turnovers had more to do with our only regular season loss. Our insane luck only seemed to work one way. I say again, Gator fans unhappy with this year should wait awhile to rewrite history.
    • Disagree Disagree x 2
  6. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Nonsense.
  7. gatorplank
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    gatorplank Well-Known Member

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    I agree with the Mack Brown comparisons. I can definitely see it. Mack Brown had some good years with Vince Young. He had some other good years with Muschamp as DC, and then some mediocre ones when he didn't have Muschamp or VY.
  8. benheb
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    benheb Well-Known Member

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    I appreciate the multi-word response even if you disagreed with me...

    Stop time last year and Dumbo looks terrible and even F$U homers said so... This year his stellar record in the ACC is somehow much more impressive? That's nonsense.

    Not saying he won't be a good coach eventually, there will need to be more evidence.
  9. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    I'll give you more words then. Last year, FSU rolled in many games, but also lost to an inferior NC State team (the Wolfpack are like the Mississippi teams to Florida), struggled to beat the worst Virginia Tech team in 20 years, and had a fight with 7-7 Georgia Tech.

    This year, the only team that came within three TDs of FSU was Boston College on the efforts of BC's great running back, Andre Williams, but in spite of having an 8-minute TOP edge, this wasn't enouogh to keep Winston off the field, who threw four TD passes.

    I have shown many times that while the SEC, at the very top, is clearly the best conference in the nation, from the third best to bottom, there isn't a whole lot of difference. Since 2000, a 7-win ACC team is about as good as a 6.2-win SEC team, and this ratio corresponds up to about the 11-win realm. After that, the gap widens, as it does against teams from ALL other conferences.

    Based on HISTORY, probability and statistics, had Florida been in the ACC, they would have probably been better than Wake Forest (4-8), NC State (3-9), and Virginia (2-10). Six ACC teams finished either five or six losses this year, and at a two game gap with the SEC team the underdog, the SEC wins 16% of those games. When Florida can lose to Georgia Souther, they are vulnerable to ANY team from a BCS conference or even a mid-major. When Florida has an 8-win season, they are perhaps a bit better than an 8-win ACC, BiG, Big XII or PAC team, but not by a lot.

    There is little difference between playing Tennessee, Miss State, and Ole Miss, and playing Boston College, Maryland and Pitt. For every Alabama, Auburn, and Mizzou (who went 5-7 last year after leaving another conference), there are also Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee. An SEC team with a mediocre record is really no better than an OOC team with a similar record.
  10. Wormwood56
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    Well, Mack's been there a long time. Depending on how one defines "mediocre," is in the eye of the beholder, so let's look at his tenure at Texas, and say mediocre is five or more losses (the Florida standard):

    Year----------------W/L Record-----------Notes

    1998..............................9-3
    1999..............................9-5...............................mediocre
    2000.............................9-3
    2001............................11-2
    2002............................11-2
    2003............................10-3................................Young DNP
    2004............................11-1.................................Young (128.9 QB rating)
    2005............................13-0.................................Young All-world
    2006............................10-3
    2007............................10-3
    2008............................12-1..................................Boom at DC
    2009............................13-1..................................Boom at DC
    2010..............................5-7..................................Boom at DC - bad
    2011...............................8-5..................................mediocre
    2012...............................9-4
    2013...............................8-5/9-4

    Brown with Young or Boom: 64-13 (.831)
    SOS with Wuerffel and/or Stoops: 65-10 (.867)

    Brown without above: 92-29 (.760)
    SOS without above: 57-17 (.770)

    Difference: Brown +.071, SOS +.097

    Moral of the story: When a great coach has all the pieces in place, they can have extraordinary seasons. When not, they are still pretty good.
  11. gatorplank
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    gatorplank Well-Known Member

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    Wormwood, a team's record never tells the whole story. You have to look at the schedule. Who did the wins come against and who did the losses come against? When it comes to SEC vs. ACC vs. Big XII, I think we can get lost in the conference debate and fail to look at individual teams. When we compare Florida to other schools, Florida's schedule is beyond anything that any other SEC team faces every year. I would even argue that Alabama's schedule at times has been significantly easier when compared to the schedules of other SEC teams.

    So a 5 loss season at Florida cannot be generally equated to a 5 loss season for just any SEC team, and it definitely cannot be equated to a 5 loss season at Texas. I think a 4 loss season at Texas during Mack Brown's tenure is equivalent to a 5 loss season at Florida, and a 4 loss season at Texas during this time is roughly equivalent to a 3 loss season at FSU. There is no magic formula here because every year is different.

    Now that above general rule applies when Florida is actually good and not just another FCS team for FSU to whoop up on. When we look at FSU's schedule this year I believe any 3 loss Gator team could have gone undefeated with FSU's schedule this year. FSU did beat all of their opponents by a lot, but we as Gator fans who lived through the SOS and Meyer years should know that scoring margin in previous games means nothing when it comes to facing a future quality opponent.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  12. benheb
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    benheb Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the words but you use a lot of them to get around the fact that your boys play a weak strength of schedule year in and year out. Remember that last year they got a lot of hype (NC candidates) until they lost to an ACC team and they couldn't recover from that and then even FSU fans stopped whining about the lack of respect after Muschamp schooled Dumbo in their own stadium. One of the reasons FSU is always overhyped is their pathetic SOS (aka ACC). Every discussion about them is qualified by "look at their remaining schedule" - "who's gonna beat them"?

    Geez, don't you think it's a bit esoteric to build a statistical argument on a "third best to the bottom" basis?

    Sorry, I'm not going to try to dissect your argument. I'll even concede whatever point you're trying to make because it's not just me or SEC fans that look at the ACC as a joke. It's all of the college football establishment and the odds makers.

    Remember that this whole thing started as a look at the evidence of whether Dumbo is a great coach or not. I think he is a good recruiter and a decent coach - like I said, a Mack Brown type. Not Spurrier, Saban, Meyer, or even Les Miles caliber but Texas will probably perform at Mack Brown levels if they get him and will occasionally win it all with a Vince Young or Winston type recruit.

    But don't tell me he's great because of his ACC record. It's the ACC - the guys that can't sell tickets to their championship game - you know, the guys that are statistically comparable to other conferences (uhhh, when comparing third to bottom).
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2013
  13. willymayshayes
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    LSU - yes
    USC - yes
    UGA - no
  14. cistern
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    cistern Active Member

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    I know you want longer responses... but what is there to say? We had six turnovers and top five teams don't have six turnovers in a single game.
  15. benheb
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    benheb Well-Known Member

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    I agree with what you're saying here with regard to SOS and UF and I think it compliments my converse argument about FSU's SOS. It has taken a long time and a lot of evidence to discredit teams like FSU with pathetic SOSs. I am hoping they pay this year for their weak schedule with not experiencing a tough game - the last year before the playoff is introduced to further penalize teams that play weak schedules.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  16. benheb
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    benheb Well-Known Member

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    Nope that's long enough. We're talking about perception here and I thought UF looked to be at roughly the same talent level or higher than UGA. You and others disagree so there it is.
  17. cistern
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    cistern Active Member

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    The general consensus of other people I talked to believed we shouldn't have been ranked #3 and instead of proving them wrong by demolishing Louisville* like we were supposed to, we got blown out in every facet of the game and lose. I still remember the Twitter/Facebook posts immediately following the loss: "At least it's good to know FSU isn't the only Florida team that is completely overrated."

    *Of whom, before the game, the announcers were questioning whether they would score even ONE touchdown on our defense.
  18. horanic
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    horanic Active Member

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    The ACC is a joke. You can add up all the wins within that conference and they dont equate to one win versus Bama, LSU or Mizzou this year....and I dont mean for FSU I mean for the whole ACC. Getting 8 wins in the ACC is like getting 5 in the SEC. If you want numbers that tell the story I give you the ACC record versus teams outside the ACC...its the worst of any major conference. I also give you this years bowl eligible teams. They have a projected 2-9 bowl record according to Vegas. Take a look at the SEC projections...take a look at the SEC BCS record. Wins in the SEC ACTUALLY DO mean significantly more than wins versus Duke as your conference finalist...cough cough.
  19. benheb
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    benheb Well-Known Member

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    Yes - I remember that game. Especially two plays in particular. The first fluke play where a tipped pass leads to fluke Louisville TD. The second play was Louisville's first offensive play. A spectacular statement by our defense about what Teddy Bridgewater was facing and it was called a personal foul.

    Why do I have to defend the only UF losses that year? Does it show how "lucky" we were? How we were unfit to be on the same field as any "top five team"? I know there is no other explanation than that sorry team was lucky except for those two games that we lost that showed how overrated they were. If that's what you're arguing, please let me know and I'll skip any future walks down memory lane.

    The way folks argue here, that 11-2 was no better than an ACC 11-2 cause they remember we just got lucky. Doesn't matter to them how spectacularly difficult that schedule was. ACC 11-2 is always just as good and shows how smart Dumbo is.

    If you believe that - I'm done.
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  20. cistern
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    cistern Active Member

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    I didn't ask you to defend anything. You asked if we looked like a top five team in 2012 and I told you no and explained why. I didn't say we got lucky either; I simply don't believe we were a top five, let alone #3, team and we can agree to disagree on that, but don't misconstrue my comments as anything other than: We had a good 2012 season that was marred by an absolutely abysmal showing in our two losses, one of which happened to be in a BCS bowl game on the national stage leaving most non-biased viewers to believe we were overrated.
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2013

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