David Parker article

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by studegator, Oct 15, 2013.

  1. jareduf
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    jareduf Active Member

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    I agree 100% that with those records, Muschamp will be around a long time. However, IMO I just can't see us finishing the season at 10-3 (hoping we can).

    Unfortunately, we will be underdogs in 3 regular season games remaining and tough to see us not losing 5 regular season games. That makes next year a make or break year, in that if there's not a significant improvement, it would be tough to see him surving to the 2015 season.
  2. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    So the question remains:

    Would you fire him?

    That scenario is NOT that hard.

    In 2003, Florida had an identical 6-2 record with Georgia and Tennessee. Florida BEAT Georgia head to head. Didn't go to Atlanta because Florida had the misfortune to play:

    Florida SEC Opp-------W/L----Georgia SEC Opp-----W/L----Tenn SEC Opp----W/L


    LSU........................13-1.....LSU.......................13-1......Georgia.............11-3
    Georgia...................11-3.....Tennessee..............10-3......Florida................8-5
    Tennessee...............10-3......Florida....................8-5......Auburn................8-5
    Ole Miss..................10-3......Auburn...................8-5......USCe...................5-7
    Arkansas...................9-4......USCe.....................5-7......Kentucky..............4-8
    USCe........................5-7......Kentucky................4-8......Alabama...............4-9
    Kentucky...................4-8......Alabama................4-9.......Miss State............2-10
    Vandy.......................2-10....Vandy....................2-10.....Vandy..................2-10

    Total......................64-39 (.621).......................56-48 (.538)...............44-57 (.436)

    Florida had by FAR the toughest SEC schedule, as it usually does (this was was extraordinary, however). Imagine having to play a Georgia team that was as good as the Georgia teams of the 2002-4 era for four years. Florida goes 24-6 in SEC play over four years, while Georgia has Tennessee's OOC schedule (easy to do if Auburn goes into one of their suck periods and they also get the Mississippi schools in their typical state).

    My point is many times, there are things outside the control of a team.

    Or you could say that in two of those years, the officials have another Swindle/Robbery at Rock Top situation where Florida got robbed, and that game was the pivotal game to determine who goes to Atlanta.

    Think of this. Since 1997, let's look at the 9+ win teams Florida had:

    Year--------Florida Record-----SEC Game Results

    1997..........10-2...................DNP
    1998..........10-2...................DNP
    1999............9-4...................Lost to Bama (10-3)
    2000..........10-3...................Beat Auburn (9-4)
    2001..........10-2...................DNP
    2005............9-3...................DNP
    2006..........13-1...................Beat Arkansas (10-4)
    2007............9-4...................DNP
    2008..........13-1...................Beat Alabama (12-2)
    2009..........13-1...................Lost to Alabama (14-0)
    2012..........11-2...................DNP

    In 11 years, we won 9 or more games and didn't go to Atlanta. What happens if Richt suddenly discovers a Herschel Walker clone who loves his school and stays four years, thereby leading Georgia to four 13-1 seasons?

    There are many, many variables. I think the most we can ask of a coach is that he at least makes us competitive for Atlanta. Les Miles is a damned good coach, but how many trips to Atlanta does HE have since 2008? One in five years?
  3. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Again, our regular season average at Florida since 1992 for teams that lose 12+ starters is 8-4. That is regardless who the head coach is.

    Year---W.L------# Opp w/<4 losses/ties

    1992: 8-4....................4
    1999: 9-3....................4
    2002: 8-4....................2
    2003: 8-4....................6
    2004: 7-4....................4
    2007: 9-3....................2
    2010: 7-5....................2
    2011: 6-6....................3

    Total..62-33 (.653) Average: 7.8 -- 4.1

    8-4

    Should we demand that Muschamp go 9-3 and 10-2 when legendary coaches like Sos and Meyer could not consistently do that?
  4. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Great question.

    And Meyer only went 9-3 when playing just two teams that had fewer than 4 losses.

    This year, we'll likely play 5 to 6 teams in that category.
  5. gatorr4life
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    gatorr4life Well-Known Member

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    Lol
  6. grumpy_gator
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    grumpy_gator New Member

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    Good stuff, Worm ... please keep bringing it ...
  7. trufloridagator
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    trufloridagator VIP Member

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    I like the article a lot but there is no excuse for doing some small things offensively to help the oline. We don't have to become a passing first team but we make no effort to keep a defense off balance of max protect or use our decent FBs in pass protection. Give Humphrey a TE to help block every down for all I care. Pease and Muschamp aren't making adjustments, otherwise I could care less about wins and losses this season. I'm not going to judge a coach based on a team committing 5 turnovers or flukey losses.

    Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry
  8. Swamper
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    Swamper New Member

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    lsu was a "flukey" loss?:plain:
  9. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    He's saying Miami was a flukey loss.

    LSU just beat us.
  10. trufloridagator
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    trufloridagator VIP Member

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    Definitely not. Im not upset about losing to them either, just the lack of offensive adjustments and a poor gameplan.

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  11. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    They both beat us. We may have had turnovers in the Miami game, but their defense capitalized on them. Plus, they had two drives of 50+ yards, resulting in TDs. Nothing flukey about it.

    Records of teams with the worst turnover margin:

    Year---------AQ Conf School---------W/L Record

    2012.................South Florida..................3-9
    2011.................Notre Dame....................8-5
    2010.................Cincinnati.......................4-8
    2009.................Georgia..........................8-5
    2008.................Wash State....................2-11
    2007.................Baylor.............................3-9
    2006.................Illinois.............................2-10
    2005.................Oklahoma St...................4-7
    2004.................Washington....................1-10
    2003.................Miss State.......................2-10
    2002.................Baylor..............................3-9
    2001.................Rutgers............................2-9
    2000.................USC..................................5-7

    Best Teams

    2012................Oregon.........................12-1
    2011................Oklahoma St.................12-1
    2010................Virginia Tech.................11-3
    2009................Alabama........................14-0
    2008................Oklahoma......................12-2
    2007................Kansas..........................12-1
    2006................Boston Coll....................10-3
    2005................USC................................12-1
    2004................USC................................13-0
    2003................Nebraska........................10-3
    2002................West Virginia....................9-4
    2001.................Miami.............................11-0
    2000.................Georgia Tech....................9-2

    Florida

    Year--------------Turnover Margin Rank AQ conf------W/L

    2012.............................5th..............................11-2
    2011...........................65th................................7-6
    2010...........................31st................................8-5
    2009...........................12th..............................13-1
    2008.............................2d...............................13-1
    2007...........................20th................................9-4
    2006...........................22d...............................13-1
    2005.............................2d.................................9-3
    2004...........................25th................................7-5
    2003...........................15th................................8-5
    2002...........................55th................................8-5
    2001...........................47th..............................10-2
    2000.............................2d...............................10-3

    With the exception of 2001, when we simply outscored everyone (our defensive schedule was weak that year), there is a reasonable parallel between good turnover margins and success.

    Indeed, this is how teams with less than top tier recruiting attain great W/L records: ball control and minimizing mistakes. How does the Georgia Techs and Boston Colleges get good records in their best years? Minimizing error.

    This is the lesson that urban Meyer pounded into the heads of everyone when he came to Florida, treating a turnover lost like a capital offense.

    The great teams have great turnover margins, but also execute when they get into the redzone. Teams with great records but not top tier talent tend to overachieve largely because of great turnover margins.

    I think Muschamp realizes we do not have top talent on offense right now (at least using the philosophy he espouses), and plays as though he has a team with a great defense and an undertalented offense. This is basically how he went 11-2 last year. he played Beamer Ball: elite defense, great turnover margin, great time of possession, strong special teams defense, great kicking game.
  12. OaktownGator
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    I agree with your big picture on turn over margin, and Beamer ball.

    And if Miami had forced most of those turn overs, I'd agree that they beat us.

    Mostly we handed them the ball due to our own mistakes. We also missed gimme TDs due to our own mistakes.

    All in game that we thoroughly dominated every other aspect of football. From a stat line perspective it should have been a four TD blow out. Just clean up a couple of our own mistakes and we win by 10.

    LSU was a different story. They took that game. We weren't going to win that game unless they made stupid mistakes like we did against Miami.
  13. demosthenes
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    demosthenes Well-Known Member

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    Agreed.
  14. GoGator
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    GoGator VIP Member

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    Gatorstew you are exactly RIGHT. David has knowledge but is just too wordy!
  15. demosthenes
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    demosthenes Well-Known Member

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    In the post you quoted I said, no, we wouldn't fire him.

    And yes, one in five years would be understandable when dealing with an Alabama in your division that is on a historical run. Obviously nothing happens in a vacuum.
  16. DieAGator
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    DieAGator Well-Known Member

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    I'm confused regarding our recruiting a smaller class this year. From the article:

    "Thus, a third of the roster – including a ton of very talented players who were supposed to be the anchors of the team this year (especially on offense) – exited the program over the course of a year and change in the transition of coaching regimes. "

    If that's the case why can't we recruit a full class?
  17. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    But if they DID make stupid mistakes, as we did against Miami, chances are that our defense forced them, or at least appeared to have foreced them in the mind of the trigger-puller, as it did int he mind of Jeff Driskel.

    Watching the highlights of the Miami game now...

    The first turnover was a fumble, and it definitely was forced by Miami on a huge hit. The first INT showed that Jeff was under pressure and chased out of the box, forcing a throw into triple coverage. The fourth turnover was a fumble by Burton after being tackled. He coughed it up.

    Miami's first turnover was a blocked punt, which Florida's defense definitely produced. Miami's first INT was clearly overthrown and picked off - a Miami mistake.

    Florida's 5th turnover was Jeff's fault, as he didn't see the second DB. The sixth turnover was Jeff attempting to throw, with the defense knocking the ball out of his hand before his arm went forward.

    Of the six turnovers, only one - Jeff's last INT - could reasonably be considered a poor play, when jeff wasn't really pressured and faijled to see the DB. Every other play was clearly influenced by the defense.

    I know how Gators feel about Miami. I hate them more than most here because i lived through the nightmare when we played annually. I remember the 1980s, and their thug swagga attitude. I also understand the gall of an SEC team losing to an ACC team. But the Miami defense had plenty of influence in winning the game. They took it as well.
  18. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    At least you understand this. Too many people here do not. They think that external factors are irrelevent, that it is all about YOUR team and YOUR head coach. When you have a team like the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers, that is true. Pretty much anything short of that, and it isn't.

    Look at the perfect season of Alabama in 2009. Who did they play in the regular season?

    Opponent----------W/L Record

    Virginia Tech................10-3
    LSU................................9-4
    Ole Miss.........................9-4
    Auburn...........................8-5
    Arkansas........................8-5
    Tennessee.....................7-6
    USCe..............................7-6
    Kentucky........................7-6
    Miss State......................5-7
    FIU.................................3-9
    N. Texas.........................2-10
    Tenn-Chattanooga.........0-12 (FCS)

    Several decent teams, but no one that is top 5 caliber. Yes, they rolled over Florida and a Colt McCoy-less Texas in the postseason, but they weren't stressed at all. They were fortunate they didn't have Auburn's 2010 schedule, or Florida's 2006 or 2003 schedule. Would they have run the table? Perhaps, but I doubt it.

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