Conference play

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by chunks1, Jan 5, 2014.

  1. chunks1
    Online

    chunks1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2014
    Messages:
    1,182
    Likes Received:
    239
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +1,135
    With conference play starting this week best guess at Florida s record. I think 14 and 4 maybe 13 and 5.
  2. tommyuf21
    Offline

    tommyuf21 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    8,622
    Likes Received:
    203
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +969
    I'm going to shoot high and say 15-3. I think we we hold serve at home, lose at Rupp and two others (either at UT or Ole Miss <shudder> or Bama).

    I like having LSU and Missouri at home. We certainly caught a break for a change as they are the third and four best teams in the SEC at the moment.
  3. ApexNC
    Offline

    ApexNC Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    8,032
    Likes Received:
    285
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    NC
    Ratings Received:
    +1,165
    If yesterday was an aberration, we can go 16-2 or 15-3. If we play like that regularly, then 13-5 is more likely
  4. born2beagator
    Offline

    born2beagator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2009
    Messages:
    18,654
    Likes Received:
    316
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Lakeland
    Ratings Received:
    +1,394
    Considering the body of work before conference play, I'd say yesterday was an aberration
    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. GatorRade
    Online

    GatorRade Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    7,091
    Likes Received:
    273
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +934
    KenPom's model currently predicting 13-5 as the most likely outcome for Florida.
  6. GothamGator
    Online

    GothamGator VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    17,950
    Likes Received:
    217
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +690
    I will go with 14-4. The key is going to be how soon we can polish off the rough edges. It's going to be hard to win some of those road games without more consistent play, especially on offense.

    I will also predict that we end up sharing the title with Kentucky.
  7. jmoliver
    Online

    jmoliver Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    1,870
    Likes Received:
    26
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +119
    UF will lose 4 conference games when the offense goes south.
  8. oneatatime
    Offline

    oneatatime Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2007
    Messages:
    5,340
    Likes Received:
    74
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +350
    The availabilty of Chris Walker and development of Kasey Hill, will make the difference between 13-5 and something better.
  9. rserina
    Offline

    rserina VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    27,370
    Likes Received:
    514
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,078
    I honestly haven't watched enough of the other league teams play to have a good idea. The conference looks bad again--then again it normally does. But league play will still be a grind. Trips to Arky, Auburn, UK, Tennessee, Ole Miss will all be very difficult. We can win all of our home games, but doing so is a different matter, especially against Mizzou, Tennesse, and UK. So, yeah, somewhere between 13-5 and 15-3 seems about right, though that is a shot in the dark based more on the schedule than the opponent. We may match up very well against some of those teams above, less so against others.
  10. themistocles
    Offline

    themistocles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    12,725
    Likes Received:
    87
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +414
    Unless you are dominant, and this team is not, anything above 15-3 is outrageously optimistic.

    As was noted, the Gators almost always seem to figure out a way to lose at Rupp, in Knowville and Nashville. As was noted, not playing in either Columbia or Baton Rouge is likely beneficial, although Baton Rouge is nothing like the other 3, and we can't know about Columbia year, due to a lack of experience (1 game).

    So, I too think that 14-4 is most likely, despite the fact that there do not appear to be very many high quality SEC teams this year. Not being able to make Free Throws will likely be the cause of half the losses (of course, note that Kentucky has exactly the same problem).
  11. OaktownGator
    Offline

    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    26,831
    Likes Received:
    2,577
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +7,793
    SEC is as crappy a hoops conference as it is strong in football. We're a pretty experienced team, and get a schedule break with LSU and Mizzou as has been pointed out.

    With our experience and the schedule, I think we'll handle the grind better than we often have in the past.

    The FT shooting is concerning, but I'll go with 15-3 as long as we don't have any key injuries.
  12. GatorRade
    Online

    GatorRade Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    7,091
    Likes Received:
    273
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +934
    Even with the SEC's noted crapitude, that would be a seriously good result. KenPom has us as a straight-up underdogs @Akry, @Tenn, and @UK and only slight favorites @Bama, UK (probably our only chance of losing at home), and @Miss. I don't think there is any team that we can't beat, but there are only a few that can't beat us (sorry Georgia).
  13. OaktownGator
    Offline

    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    26,831
    Likes Received:
    2,577
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +7,793
    It would be a seriously good result. I don't disagree with that.

    But KenPom probably has us underrated due to early season performances without key players and with no scholarship bench to speak of.

    IMO, @UK is the only game I'd consider us a legit underdog. And we could win that one, as well as I'm sure we will lose games we're favored in, or are toss ups.

    And again, a good part of my reasoning for such a strong result is that I think the experience we have will serve us well when we get deep into conference play and teams are really grinding.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  14. gator34654
    Offline

    gator34654 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2007
    Messages:
    4,839
    Likes Received:
    257
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,211
    I think we lose 4, one or two of those losses will be due to poor ft shooting.
  15. GatorRade
    Online

    GatorRade Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    7,091
    Likes Received:
    273
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +934
    Well I certainly hope that you are right, but there is so much chaos over 18 games that you never know. And I agree that KenPom is probably underrating us a bit due to our early injures, but our biggest drop in the ratings has happened recently since we've had all of our players (minus C Walker), so it isn't clear.
  16. OaktownGator
    Offline

    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    26,831
    Likes Received:
    2,577
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +7,793
    Gotcha Rade. I'm just taking an educated guess like the rest of us - for discussion's sake.

    Wouldn't surprise me too much if we lose five either. Especially when we hit the Feb schedule with a lot of road games and with the way we shoot free throws. I don't see us doing worse than that, though.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  17. BengermanV
    Offline

    BengermanV Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2009
    Messages:
    4,495
    Likes Received:
    252
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +835
    Yeah, I think 14-4 or 15-3 will be where we end up.
    • Creative Creative x 1
  18. rserina
    Offline

    rserina VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    27,370
    Likes Received:
    514
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,078
    I love KenPom for his emphasis on team statistics and relative competition (as opposed to simply the "eye test," which usually tends to favor the more prominently televised teams with the more marketable individual players), but I personally take his actual predictions with a grain of salt. He simply does not factor matchups into the equation and in competitive team sports that means everything.

    As to our drop, I suspect it has more to do with our poor offensive efficiency in recent games, and that has everything to do with our shooting struggles. We shot 46% against Richmond, 26% from three, and had ten assists against 14 turnovers, while they hit a bunch of circus shots to claw back in it. We only shot 49% against a terrible Sav St. team, with 11 assists against 13 turnovers. We shot a dreadful 42% on dead rims against Fresno, only 27% from the arc. Those sorts of offensive performances against bad teams have a huge effect on his rankings and they also don't factor in venue, time between games, foul trouble, new and inconsistent rotations, etc.
  19. GatorRade
    Online

    GatorRade Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    7,091
    Likes Received:
    273
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +934
    Obviously, there is much more to beating a particular team than how you performed against other, unrelated teams. That said, the effects of matchups can go both ways. While some matchups are likely to favor us, others will doubtless favor the other team. Additionally, there is going to be great error in even predicting which ones will be which (some people though Michigan was a good matchup).

    That said, I certainly believe it is wise not to expect too much from any forecasts, but as far as forecasts go, I think the mathematical ones are among the best. Current UF national rankings in some of the more trusted computers: KenPom (UF 17th), Sagarin Predictor (UF 18th) , LRMC Bayesian (UF 34th), and TeamRankings Predictive Power (UF 23rd).

    Yeah our offensive efficiency is mediocre right now (113.7 pts/poss) and even our defensive rating has slipped a point or two (93.5 pts/poss). Perhaps at least as important in our ratings drop, however, is that our SOS is dropping with recent poor performances by many of our quality opponents. UConn, FSU, and Memphis are all outside the top 35 now, and we played each of them very close.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  20. rserina
    Offline

    rserina VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    27,370
    Likes Received:
    514
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,078
    Again, I wasn't talking about general predictions (I think the statistics are pretty useful in terms of comparing one team with another on the count), but the notion that you cat project us to lose to or win against a certain team based upon mathematical computation. That overlooks matchups and is foolish, in my opinion. The analytics reflect the quality of your team in the aggregate, but they don't predict how you will fare against a team under entirely different conditions.

    That makes sense, too. And as others have noted it largely overlooks who we had available at the time and venue.

Share This Page