Chances Florida Beats FSU?

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by NiftyGator, Nov 19, 2013.

  1. FunNguN
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    FunNguN Member

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    50% chance.

    Same as any game.

    Either we'll win or we won't.
  2. rmonteag
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    rmonteag Member

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    The biggest upset was the '97 game and I just remember being there and the crowd yelling non-stop for 3 hours. Do I see a similar display from fans this year? No.

    I'd say there is 5% chance. I would agree, FSU would have to have a major implosion on all parts of their game for us to even sniff a W. FSU is rolling and clicking on all cylinders while our coach is bashing his hand on a board when we have a lead. I'd say FSU 47- UF 7
  3. bullish
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    bullish Well-Known Member

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    Anything is possible;

    J. Winston's people will keep this out of court before the Florida game, book it.

    Revenge of last year is on the minds of the Criminoles

    Speed at every position

    A LSU fan told me Monday night they were going to kill us due to speed kills

    J. Winston is the real deal and wants to prove it against the Gators, with their schedule, since Clemp's son spanking, they have been practicing putting 8 and 9 guys in the box on defense, does this sound familiar?

    How many personal fouls do we ring up?

    How many sacks of our QB?

    Who is our QB?

    Who is our TE?

    Who will be our FG kicker, who will get a workout, due to not getting it done in the red zone. Of course with us making sure of TOP, there is no cure for this, we will have to kick it, whether a punt for fg.

    Who will try to catch the fourth down pass when we try it?

    How many penalties will our DB's get?

    Can we score at least 21 pts?

    Too many questions for us, I think the Seminoles after taking a few injuries and fights, will find the end zone and then we will self de-struck . Semi's 30 - Gators 13

    Nine months of waiting to see some fixes, it will be a long time.:zombie:
  4. DuPontGator
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    DuPontGator Well-Known Member

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  5. born2beagator
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    born2beagator Well-Known Member

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    All I want for Christmas this year...


    If we pulled this off FSU fans would not be able to show themselves in public, and you'd certainly see the massive amount of shiny new FSU gear shelved. You know the mere chance of Florida ruining their title hopes has to have them nervous
  6. Tolbert1906
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    Tolbert1906 Active Member

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    Well that settles it then.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I777 using Gator Country
  7. UFFL
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    UFFL Well-Known Member

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  8. Tolbert1906
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    I hope they have already printed up "National Champions" t-shirts. It would be nice to see a bunch of poor Central American/African kids wearing them because of us. 'Tis the season of giving.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I777 using Gator Country
  9. keypox
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    keypox Active Member

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    You want the statistical chance?

    Series record Florida leads, 34–21

    62% chance we will win.
  10. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    At opening kickoff, Florida should be 5-6, while FSU should be 11-0. This is a difference of +6 for Florida State.

    Since 1990, an SEC opponent has never beaten an OOC opponent with a -6 or greater W/L differential. The closest to this is in 2011, when 5-7 Tennessee beat a 10-3 Cincinnati (+5.5) team whose opponents combined for a W/L record of 71-91 record. The best team the Bearcats beat were NC State (8-5) and Louisville (7-6).

    This Florida team is probably not appreciably better than that Tennessee team, and tis Florida State team would absolutely CRUSH that Cincinnati team. FSU's schedule is not difficult, but it is stronger than Cincinnati's in 2010. Much stronger.

    When the OOC opponent has an advantage +4 or greater prior to gametime, the SEC's record is 2-32. That comes out to a .052 winning percentage. As such, mathematically, the chances of Florida beating FSU would be about a snowball's chance in Hell.

    That said, this is a rivalry game, and Florida plays at The Swamp. Anything can happen, but I wouldn't put the mortgage on Florida winning, or even being close.
  11. capnpen
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    capnpen Active Member

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    The Zooker pulled off the upset in Tallahassee, but that was a 6-4 Florida team with a semblance of an offense against an 8-2 FSU team that was nowhere near as high-octane as this year's Seminoles.

    I hate the 'Noles, like I hate cancer, terrorism and 80s movie sequels. But I simply can't see a scenario where the Gators can beat FSU without finding a way to score more than 20 points or hold them under 14. And I don't see UF doing either of those. I'd put our chances of winning at, "It ain't happening."
  12. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    But FSU was +2 in the differential. Since 1990, SEC teams who spotted the OOC team two wins won about won about 35% of their games. OOC teams who spotted the SEC two wins won about 29% of the games.
  13. Tolbert1906
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    Tolbert1906 Active Member

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    These statistics have no bearing on the game though. Mathematically, they don't demonstrate any advantage for FSU. This is just interesting historical data that has no real relevance in predicting the winner. It's impossible to say who has the better chance at winning this game. There are too many subjective elements, too many intangible elements in college football to predict what's going to happen.

    All of the things that point to an FSU win are entirely subjective. They "look" like the better team. That's why people think they are going to win.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I777 using Gator Country
  14. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    I fully expect the Gators to beat FSU.

    Always, until proven otherwise.

    ...but just for insurance (and kicks), I'd make the whole team sit through the Swindle in the Swamp game, the night before the game.
  15. Wormwood56
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    First, I don't believe ANY of the data is subjective. That is based on scoreboard, and both historically and statistically, that is entirely relevant. It is NOT impossible to statistically say who has the better chance of winning. By any objective measurement, Florida State is the better team, on paper and on the field.

    Second, you didn't include my last paragraph, which addressed the intangibles. But if it so happens that we beat the Noles, it will be the biggest upset by an SEC team against an AQ conference team since 1990, and probably a long time before that.

    It IS statistically possible to beat FSU, but I would set it at less than 5% chance. We would have to play our best game of the season, and FSU would have to play a similar game to what USCe did last year against us. It COULD happen, but I wouldn't bet on it. I can only hope it happens.
  16. ATL_Gator
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    ATL_Gator Well-Known Member

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    Per the magic 8 ball on my desk:

    "Are we going to beat Florida State"
    - You may rely on it
  17. ATL_Gator
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    ATL_Gator Well-Known Member

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    CRAP.. forgot...

    We play the clowns in basketball on the 29th... so we COULD lose on the 30th and the magic 8 ball be right.

    Rephrase question....

    "Are we going to beat Florida State on Saturday, November 30th?"
    - Outlook Good
  18. tilly
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    tilly Well-Known Member

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    It will be 1997 all over again. Kelvin Taylor scores the winner in the SEZ just like his Daddy.

    Sent from my All knowing Android Device
  19. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    ^^^Either way, I like your eight ball better than Worm's numbers.

    Colors > Numbers.

    Orange & Blue > Garnet & Gold.

    #@$% the stats...
  20. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    :yes:

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