Chances Florida Beats FSU?

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by NiftyGator, Nov 19, 2013.

  1. Tolbert1906
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    Tolbert1906 Well-Known Member

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    So much pessimism. We don't even know if FSU is a good team. They look good and pass the eye test, but so did OSU when they were supposed to annihilate us in Glendale. Of course, we had a much better team back then, but there are some similarities. We had a very good defense but totally sucked on offense. OSU had not been tested all year by a team that had a defense with a pulse. They had a star QB who was shredding teams apart. Same with FSU this year.

    Florida played with a chip on its shoulder, because nobody was picking them to win. Let's hope our players get fired up for this one for the same reasons. I hope we are multiple TD underdogs.

    We hung with SC and outplayed them for much of the game. We almost snuck out with a win. Same thing against Georgia. We have shown we are capable of beating good teams. We just haven't been able to get over the hump. Last year we had some luck in those close games. This year not so much, but eventually some good fortune will come our way... just by law of averages. And Boston College showed FSU is beatable. Boston College! We absolutely have a good chance against FSU.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I777 using Gator Country
  2. Bazza
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    Bazza Well-Known Member

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    If we play smart.........we can and will win.

    :)
  3. GatorLaw
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    GatorLaw Well-Known Member

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    With Murphy healthy - 10% chance
    With SM at QB - 2% chance
    With Winston charged with a felony before our game - 80% (almost inconceivable but you never know)

    I'll be excited for this one as I am for all FSU games. But I'm obviously not very optimistic about our chances of winning. I think the only way to beat FSU is to put heavy, constant pressure on Winston without having to blitz a lot. Unfortunately I haven't seen our DL applying that kind of pressure on anyone since Easley went down.
  4. GATORAZ
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    GATORAZ Well-Known Member

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    I am not sure we actually need to pressure the QB we just need to make them one dimensional. If we can stop the run and make Winston throw the balll to win then we have a game on our hands as long as our CB's are not suspended. People hate throwing against us.
  5. GatorBen
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    GatorBen Well-Known Member

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    I agree with some of the others above. Florida has a decent chance to win this game. Numbers wise? 30 to 35 percent maybe.

    I think we can hold their offense in check to a degree. And they're a team that relies on fast streaks of points to build momentum. Exactly the kind of team you want to shorten the game and keep their offense off the field against, something that we excel at, even if our other worldly TOP stats have become a running joke around here.

    Comes down to our ability to run against them, which I think we should be able to do with a power game. And we likely need at least one non-offensive score (defensive TD, safety, or return TD) to give ourselves the best shot.
  6. GatorLaw
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    GatorLaw Well-Known Member

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    I've seen Winston throw the ball in 3 games. He threw it as well or better than I've seen any college QB throw it this year. If the game comes down to his throwing the ball and we don't apply pressure we lose big-time IMHO.
  7. geauxgator1
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    geauxgator1 Well-Known Member

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    I think we have a shot, with our defense, but we just don't have enough offensive power to put enough points on the board. They can score 24 on us when we play extremely well on defense, but their defense is pretty good too. We will be fortunate if we can put 17 on the board.
  8. phideltgator
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    phideltgator Active Member

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    Winston is only 5' -9" tall so our d line should have no problem knocking the ball down.
  9. VanNoord
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    VanNoord Active Member

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    Bad SEC team always has a shot against a good other-conference team. So, yeah, could happen. 20% chance of pain for the Noles.
  10. NiftyGator
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    NiftyGator Member

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    You are right about this.
  11. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    :)
    Well played
  12. GatorJ
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    GatorJ Member

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  13. WESGATORS
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    WESGATORS Moderator

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    This right here, it's gonna happen.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
  14. phatGator
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    phatGator Well-Known Member

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    Throw records out the window when rivals play. I think the less probability to win the better the chances (yeah, I know that's a contradiction) when you have players who are fundamentally as good (which I think they are). I think noles will be overconfident and good defense will fluster them. DJ and Noah teamed up against the odds. I think Skyler and Trey will do the same.

    I could, of course, be terribly wrong, but I prefer to look forward to the possible rather than dread the probable.
  15. MtownGator
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    MtownGator Well-Known Member

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    I'll be honest - If we do - I'm off to the casinos =

    Go Gators = do anything you can to win -
  16. wulimaster
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    wulimaster Active Member

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    All I know is this: when that game is over our SAT scores will still be higher than theirs.
  17. Stewie4Governor
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    Stewie4Governor Active Member

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    Our defense is capable of keeping that offense under wraps. FSUs offense does not do anything Muschamp hasn't seen before. And similar to last year, UF's defense is the toughest FSU will play against all season (7th total def, 14 scoring). The best they've played so far is Clemson (38th total def, 26th scoring). This can be a shock to the system, even if only for part of the game, and that could be enough.

    Last year FSUs offense had done almost the same thing coming into the game and UF limited them to 4 scores (2 of which were 50 yd fgs) + 1 score as time expired that was inconsequential. While FSU is averaging 8 scoring drives per game this year, UF 's typical game has fewer possessions. Keep the game to 9-10 possessions. And limit FSU to 4-5 scoring drives. UF limited USC to 5 scores (1 TD and 4/5 FGs.). Score on 5 of our drives (I know its been awhile but I think its doable). This means finishing drives with TDs and when not, making the FGs (again, it doesn't seem this way, but with all the misses, the kickers are due for a great game b/c they are better than 50%).

    Run on FSU. BC had good success running and UM also did in the 1st half b4 Duke Johnson left. Compare with what Duke Johnson did against UFs defense, and FSUs defense doesn't seem so imposing. The opportunity is there for UF to do the one thing it does adequately. Keep FSUs offense on the bench.
    Last year Driskel was 15/23 for 147 and a TD & UF rushed the ball 47 times. A 2:1 run:pass split would be ideal. We were only 3-4 passes instead of runs off that ratio in USC game. Murphy is definitely capable of that game, and its not too much of a reach to say Skyler could manage that if Murphy can't go.

    In summary:
    Be the best defense they've played against.
    Limit possessions.
    Capitalize on all drives.
    Run the ball a lot & tire their def, but pass just enough.

    With that said, I'd put our chances at 50%. I truly believe we have the athletes and the scheme to do exactly what we did last year. What I saw in the USC game wasn't miraculous, it was OL finishing blocks 3-4 yds downfield, and the 1st defender making tackles and their backup there just in case. You can argue all you want about development, but FSUs athletes aren't bigger or faster than UFs and this game is personal for a lot of them. If the Gators bring their A game, UF has a great shot at getting the W.
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  18. broncogators
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    broncogators Member

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    I think their offense is much better this year and last year they hung 26 on us last year with 5 turnovers... I'd say they need to turn the ball over at least 7 times for us to win.
  19. Pieisyummy
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    Pieisyummy Active Member

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    Seeing how FSU plays and how we play says 5%. The nature of a rivalry game and the ACC schedule tells me 20%, for surely UF can win 1 game out of 5. So, I'll split the difference and say 12.5%.
  20. SkyChimp
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    SkyChimp VIP Member

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    We have many good players on the team still fighting in the arena. I think we can win this because we have nothing to lose and FSU has everything to lose. Our players are going to leave it all out on the field and be a bit more concentrated since they wont have the pressure on them.

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