Can Vols beat 27.5?

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by palafornia, Sep 13, 2013.

  1. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    This is probably similar to the spreads that USC got when they would play an annual SEC lower tier team in the Carroll era. However, I'd imagine that this cannot feel right to a blue blood group like Tennessee.
  2. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Oregon's defense was ranked 67th in 2011. LSU put only 273 yards on the field, and capitalized on drives, such as:

    Drive 5: started on the Oregon 3, resulting in a TD
    Drive 10: started on the Oregon 24, resulting in a TD
    Drive 11: started on the Oregon 41, resulting in a TD
    Drive 12: started on the Oregon 48, resulting in a FG
    Drive 14: startd on the Oregon 41, resulting in a TD

    31 points on five short fields.

    Oregon outgained LSU by 65 yards, but suffered four turnovers to LSU's one. I can just HEAR the Oregon fans that night...

    "LSU didn't win! We GAVE it away!!"

    No. LSU won it.
  3. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Not sure about those numbers. According to the NCAA:

    Year--------Total Def-----Pass Def-----Pass Eff Def----Rush Def----Scoring Def

    2010.................34th..............56th...............7th.................27th.............12th
    2011.................67th..............88th.............40th.................54th..............52d
    2012.................44th..............56th.............15th.................44th..............25th

    They probably play a lot of bend but not break due to the inability of their opponents to go toe to toe with them offensively.

    I like those innovative numbers, but that is simply another metric.
  4. mulegator
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    mulegator VIP Member

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    Yep. Tennessee will beat a 27.5 point spread.
  5. MiddleTNgator
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    MiddleTNgator Well-Known Member

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    I don't think they cover. Mo Couch (starting DT) was declared ineligible, McCullers (the massive DT is slow and they take him out on passing downs due to poor conditioning from his size), Pig Howard and Devrin Young (explosive small slot guys and Young returns punts) are out, Maggit is still not back at LB, and Jacques Smith (a starting DE that has yet to play this season) may not play as well.

    Oregon boasts two top flight corners that will shut down the inexperienced WR's for UT. UT also has poor team speed in the front 7 outside of Brent Brewer and Dontavis Sapp. They also are not very deep or talented in the front 7. AJ Johnson, great in run support -- awful in coverage and against speedy backs. The back 4 is even worse for UT. Corner is a disaster area along with safety -- albeit Randolph and McNeil are serviceable while Moore is pretty bad. They have walkons in the 2 deep in the secondary.

    UT will probably be able to run some, but UT's inexperienced and talent poor secondary with lack of overall speed will be major issues against Oregon. However, Mariota has struggled passing the first few games but I still expect Oregon to beat the brakes off them.
  6. gatorchamps0607
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    gatorchamps0607 Always Rasta Premium Member

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    And you called me childish?

    You're really going around to other threads beating this dead horse?

    Jesus dude, find a life.
  7. atlantagator86
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    atlantagator86 Well-Known Member

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    Orgeon does not match up well against teams with speed and Tennessee has plenty of team speed. Remember that Tennessee played right with Oregon for the first half a few years ago, back when they had very thin talent. Basically, they had the speed to play right with Oregon but not the depth and they got worn out.

    Tennessee is still nowhere near the talent and depth they had in the 90s, but I think they have better depth than the team that played with Oregon for that half.

    I don't think they can beat Oregon, but I think they can keep the game respectable and keep it under 20.
  8. garettk
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    garettk Active Member

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    When picking in our pool, I always consider Oregon a good team to cover (amazing that they don't take heat for running up the score). Still, it wouldn't be a stretch to think UT could cover.
  9. Swampmaster
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    Swampmaster New Member

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    if ut gets blown out, any thoughts on the uf-ut line so I can start planning my wagers for next week with my man in vegas?
  10. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Eh, I'd say they were deeper then than they are now.

    The big advantages for UT this year are O-line and well ... that's about it.

    And Oregon has put up some very respectable defenses.
  11. jagervol01
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    jagervol01 Active Member

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    I wouldn't touch the line because even though Oregon may be far superior it will still just take Tenn two or three sustained 12-15 play drives to burn clock and not turning the ball over to keep the score down (like UF vs UT in 2009). I really don't care though a loss is a loss.
  12. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    I agree that it's a dangerous bet either way, but I personally think Oregon will cover. Not putting a dime on it, mind you.
  13. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Well, you have to admit, it fit the scenario. I didn't even realize it until I looked at the boxscore. Except for one thing, of course. It was the OOC team that lost...
  14. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Not sure about this, OBOB. Oregon returns 15 starters and has 52 returning letterman, 28 on offense, 22 on defense, and 4 on ST.

    Tennessee returns 13 starters and 46 lettermen, 18 offensive, 24 defense, 4 ST.

    I think the key for the Vols is to run behind those big moose and grind clock. They cannot go toe to toe with Oregon.
  15. tngator
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    tngator Member

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    I wouldn't bet on Vols. I live in Nashville, Tenn. and follow all the beat writers on the Vols. They give them zero chance to stay in this game. They have two starters on defense that are injured and may not play, their starting defensive end is suspended for taking money, and both their starting corners are true Fr. They have no depth, the fast pace Quake attach will be more than they can handle. Also their QB is worse than ours, throws over, behind and at feet of receivers. If not for a bunch of circus catches in 1st two games he would be lest than 50% comp. Western Ky. Actually out gained them in every Off stat.
    Just turned the ball over 6 times like us.
  16. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Well I don't think anyone's talking about betting on them to WIN, just to beat the spread.
  17. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    I was saying that TENNESEE was deeper then than they are now, not Oregon.
  18. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Depending on how you look at it, it's always an OOC team that loses.
  19. jagervol01
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    jagervol01 Active Member

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    Chip Kelly wouldn't slow the tempo down regardless of the score especially at home. It leads to many of their final scores looking worse than they really were (see Stanford 2010) but then they lose their close games. They remind me a lot of Tom Osborne's Nebraska teams in that regard.
  20. 4everaGator
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    4everaGator Active Member

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    Chip Kelley? Are they playing Philly tomorrow?

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