Bracket Region Power Ratings

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by corpgator, Mar 17, 2014.

  1. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    I decided to look at the strength of each region by looking at the top 12, top 8 and top 4 teams in each region. The committee did a pretty good job of getting the really bad teams down in the bottom 4 seeds, so don't look for too many upsets there.

    To create the ratings, I just took Pomeroy's rank for each team and added them up. This isn't exact since the gap between say 10 and 11 might be larger than 9 and 10, but it's a pretty good estimate. For play-in games of 11/12 seeds, I just averaged their ratings.

    Lower numbers mean stronger regions.

    Top 12
    South: 333
    East: 331
    West: 326
    Midwest: 325
    Not much difference here. Committee did a pretty good job.

    Top 8
    South: 120
    East: 163
    West: 151
    Midwest: 131
    Yikes. This means the committee did a bad job by putting too many strong teams in 1-8 of the South region. Is it 1-4 that's too strong or 5-8?

    Top 4
    South: 43
    East: 43
    West: 41
    Midwest: 28
    Ouch. Wichita St got screwed. All of the other regions are very equal. It's also clear that teams 5-8 are too strong in our region while teams 9-12 are too weak, none of which we are likely to face anyway.

    The culprits in the South are VCU, Pittsburgh, and OSU, who are all underseeded. VCU is probably not so much though because of the injury. The good thing about stronger lower seeds is they knock out other teams making your road easier. Since the strongest lower seed is most likely to face in the 2nd round, Pittsburgh, we're not catching a break. But with Kansas having Embiid out, our bracket is pretty weak overall.

    The midwest, though, contains a 4 of the top 14 teams and 3 of the top 7.
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  2. slayerxing
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    slayerxing Premium Member

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    Pittsburgh is a tough, physical team, who has had some heartbreak in close games this year, and is probably better than their record would indicate. Will not be an easy game, I hope Colorado beats them.
  3. mac4lyfe
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    mac4lyfe Well-Known Member

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    I expect Embiid to play in game 1 of this tourney.
  4. mac4lyfe
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    mac4lyfe Well-Known Member

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    I forgot to say that this is great work CorpGator...
  5. 08gatorbait
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    08gatorbait Well-Known Member

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    The only big name they've beaten is UNC. They play teams tight but they are god awful closing out games vs good teams...like bad bad. We will play close with them, but I have no doubt our seniors aren't losing in the round of 32 vs a team who can't score like Pitt..their other strong wins...Maryland, NC State, Stanford...so yea..not exactly a proven good team honestly
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  6. jareduf
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    jareduf Well-Known Member

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    A practical home game in round of 32 against Pitt or Colorado will big a huge boost.
  7. Bryan85
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    Bryan85 Well-Known Member

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    Anyone here watch the end of UNC v Pitt the other day? Pitt had about a 15-17 point lead with about 6-8 minutes to go. UNC pressed on the end bound and closed the lead to 2 points by games end. Never got the impression UNC was any good at the press but it was desperation time. I've never seen a team fold under a press as thoroughly as Pitt did. They inbounded the ball a few feet from the end line and just.....froze. Never even turned around toward upcourt. UNC immediately had 2 guys on the ball holder and either got a turnover or a held ball over and over. My friend and I watching were shocked at how poorly coached Pitt was on this.

    Unless that team learns how to handle a press by weeks end they aren't going to score 20 points on whoever they play.
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  8. red4512
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    red4512 Premium Member

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    How can the south NOT be the toughest bracket? With Kansas a top 4 team and Syracuse a former #1 ? We all know Embiid will play, probably just in time to face UF. Like the OP said with all the underrated teams in the bracket, expect some upsets. The east is a joke. Lets give Izzo a clear path to the final four. Wichita State will be out fast leaving only Mich or Louisville in the Midwest. THe West will be either the 1 seed or 2 seed. The rest of the west-zzzzzzzz.
  9. Brewski
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    Brewski Well-Known Member

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    I thought Kansas said not until the sweet 16, but I forget where that came from.
  10. REM08
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    REM08 Well-Known Member

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    Love the info and I think how you're doing this is more accurate than how the committee does. But, because of that, its hard to say "the committee did a bad job or a good job..." because they constructed the S-curve to show how good they thought teams are and don't rely on the better metrics that you're using.
  11. TheRaid
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    Good job by the OP. From looking at the teams, I think they gave Florida the PR #1 over-all seed and Arizona the real over-all #1 seed bracket, and Witchita St. the 4th #1 seed.

    Putting Pittsburgh and the other under seeded teams in the round of 32 and beyond for us seems like a statement by the committee that if Florida is legit despite its weak SEC schedule, let's see them play a tough Pitt team and others that played in real conferences and prove it.

    Also, why all play-in games are not 16 vs. 16 just shows how stupid the seeding has become.
  12. mac4lyfe
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    mac4lyfe Well-Known Member

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    I thought I heard that they did it so that the play in games would generate higher interest.
  13. TheRaid
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    Absurd reason. Then let's have Kentucky vs. Duke as a play in game.
  14. Ahab
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    Ahab Well-Known Member

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    Arizona got a huge gift in the West bracket. IMO they got the easiest #2, #3 AND #4 seeds in the tourney.
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  15. Ahab
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    Ahab Well-Known Member

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  16. oneatatime
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    oneatatime Well-Known Member

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    hoping for an easy win thursday, so we can give the Walkers and other second stringers plenty of playing time and then press for 40 minutes with 9 guys against Pitt or Colorado, who I am hoping play about 6 overtimes
  17. themistocles
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    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    Which are the best "metrics" are, at best, highly debatable.

    Personally, I think that absolutely none of them are worth very much and trust the judgment of highly skilled and knowledgable people far more than any metrics.

    The reason I say this is that I have been using metrics of one kind or another for the past 40 years, as a professional statistician, and I can tell you unequivocally that, despite the fact that the Scientific Priesthood sells this stuff like it is wonderful, it is basically of very, very little use.
  18. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    So you trust the eye test? The eye test is biased. The ratings are only as biased as how they are made and as long as they treat each team blindly, which they do, then that's better than any expert.

    If these so-called experts were so highly skilled, then we wouldn't have the bracket disasters we do every year. Creighton playing against Nebraska in Nebraska? That's just trolling. Tennessee as a 12 seed? NC State making the tournament? None of those have any defense aside from the committee following their whims.

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