Bracket: Deserves vs Power Seed

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by corpgator, Mar 16, 2014.

  1. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    First off, I'm not using the RPI. It's a travesty that the stupid tourney committee still uses it a quarter century after it has been proven to be a screwed up metric.

    So, I'm interested in what seed a team ultimately deserved based on win and losses and how good that team actually is. Luck plays a huge role in wins and losses, so teams may be much better or worse than their record, but that record is the only objective way we have to view a team. In the tourney, the team that wins all their games is the champ even if they won them all by 1 and the team they beat in the final had won them all by 30.

    For wins and losses, I'm using Sagarin's elo rankings only take into account wins and losses and not margin. For the team's power rating, I'm using Pomeroy's ratings, which is possession based and does not look at wins and losses but how much you scored against who and where.

    Column 1 is actual seed, 2 is the elo seed, 3 is the Pomeroy seed. 4 and 5 are the actual rankings from Sagarin and Pomeroy. For teams ranked beyond 68, I just divided their ranking by 28. That shows how relatively weak the small school auto bid teams are.

    Code:
    South    Florida    1    1    1        2    3
    South    Albany    17    48    45        192    177
    South    MSM    17    40    48        158    190
    South    Pittsburgh    8    8    5        31    18
    South    Colorado    9    10    16        39    64
    South    VCU    5    6    3        22    12
    South    SFA    12    5    15        17    59
    South    UCLA    4    6    4        23    16
    South    Tulsa    13    16    17        64    68
    South    OSU    6    8    5        29    19
    South    Dayton    11    12    14        46    53
    South    Syracuse    3    2    4        5    15
    South    WMU    14    33    41        131    164
    South    New Mex    7    4    7        14    28
    South    Stanford    10    13    10        52    37
    South    Kansas    2    4    3        16    9
    South    E. Kentucky    15    21    33        83    129
                              
    East    Virginia    1    2    1        6    4
    East    C. Carolina    16    48    58        191    232
    East    Memphis    8    11    12        41    45
    East    GW    9    7    12        28    46
    East    Cincin    5    6    6        24    24
    East    Harvard    12    9    9        36    33
    East    MSU    4    3    3        11    10
    East    Delaware    13    17    27        67    105
    East    UNC    6    5    7        18    26
    East    Providence    11    9    10        35    40
    East    ISU    3    4    6        13    23
    East    N. Caro Cent    14    12    20        48    78
    East    UCONN    7    5    7        20    25
    East    St. Joe's    10    8    13        32    49
    East    Villanova    2    1    2        4    6
    East    Milwauk    15    31    41        124    163
                              
    West    Arizona    1    1    1        3    1
    West    Weber State    16    48    43        189    169
    West    Gonzaga    8    7    5        25    20
    West    Ok. State    9    12    6        45    22
    West    OU    5    7    8        27    29
    West    NDSU    12    10    14        40    55
    West    SDSU    4    3    6        10    21
    West    NMSU    13    23    18        91    71
    West    Baylor    6    7    8        26    31
    West    Nebraska    11    16    12        61    48
    West    Creighton    3    5    2        19    8
    West    Louis Laf    14    27    29        107    115
    West    Oregon    7    9    8        36    30
    West    BYU    10    10    13        37    50
    West    Wisconsin    2    3    3        9    11
    West    American    15    30    25        117    98
                              
    South    WSU    1    1    2        1    5
    South    Cal Poly    17    55    44        219    173
    South    Texas South    17    58    51        232    202
    South    UK    8    9    5        33    17
    South    KSU    9    10    11        38    44
    South    SLU    5    3    9        12    34
    South    NC St    12    16    17        63    66
    South    Xavier    12    11    11        44    42
    South    UL    4    3    1        9    2
    South    Manhat    13    14    17        54    67
    South    UMass    6    8    13        30    52
    South    Iowa    11    13    7        50    27
    South    Tenn    11    14    4        56    13
    South    Duke    3    4    2        15    7
    South    Mercer    14    24    25        94    99
    South    Texas    7    9    10        34    39
    South    ASU    10    13    12        49    47
    South    Michigan    2    2    4        8    14
    South    Woff    15    40    46        160    184
    
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2014
    • Informative Informative x 4
  2. Jonas
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    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    Good stuff, but you got some formatting issues haha
  3. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    Fixed the formatting. So what stands out from the South: Pittsburgh is a strong 8 and Colorado a weak 9. VCU would be a strong 3 if not for their injury situation.

    Stephen Austin got a much lower seed than they deserved.

    Syracuse is a weak 3 seed unless they return to earlier form when they were ranked as a 1 seed by Pomeroy. Kansas is also a bit weak as a 2.

    Both of our 16 seeds should be sufficiently awful to get some good playing time for our bench and rest for our starters.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    East Analysis:
    Virginia didn't deserve a 1 seed but does have the power of a 1 seed. Memphis and GW are a very weak 8/9 pairing for them.

    Cincinnati is ripe for an upset against Harvard. MSU is a bit underseeded and is the best bet to take UVA out.

    Villanova deserved to be the 1 but their power ratings says they are 2 seed worthy. So, it's a wash for the bracket as a whole.

    ISU is a very weak 3 but the team they play is so weak, it won't matter in their first game. It will be a fight against UNC who is underseeded as well.

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