Big reason why Mullen left MSU

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by jhbyrd, Mar 11, 2018.

  1. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    TALENT. In spite of Mac not being a good recruiter he had much better talent than what Mullen can legally get in a small state like Mississippi. Ole Miss got more talent but also got on NCAA probation.

    The Miss state team last season did not have the athletes UF will have this season.

    Looking at Rivals if you total the number of 5/4 start recruits from 2014 to 2017 , the MSU team last season had 1 FIVE star recruit and 18 FOUR star recruits.

    The UF team next season ( based on 2015 thru 2018 Rivals classes) has recruited 3 FIVE star recruits and 43 FOUR star recruits. If UF clears Grimes and Jefferson it is 4 FIVE star recruits and 44 FOUR star recruits.

    So Mullen will have 4 FIVE star recruits and 44 FOUR star recruits next season versus 1 FIVE star and 18 FOUR star recruits he had last season. Shows why he left MSU.
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2018
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  2. gator7_5

    gator7_5 GC Hall of Fame

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    Problem is UGA has like 13 5 star recruits on their roster. But yeah, you're hypothesis is correct for sure.
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  3. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    The recruiting "Star System" is suspect.
    Sometimes the three star guys turn out to be five star players.
    And vice versa.
    It usually takes a couple of years to see how good a young player really is.
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  4. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    Ole Miss during its cheating years (2013-2016) got 5 FIVE star recruits and 22 FOUR star recruits. Those 5 star recruits certainly helped them. With UF not cheating during 2013-2016 we got 6 FIVE star recruits and 40 FOUR star recruits. Just easier to get talent at UF. Bama's load of 5 star recruits has certainly helped them.
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  5. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    A lot of those 5 stars are from the most recent class so it may take some time for those 5 stars to contribute. Mac's 3rd season collapse gave UGA some 5 star recruits recently.
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2018
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  6. eightiesgator

    eightiesgator GC Hall of Fame

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    It's always tempting to ponder the age old question: "If Bill Snyder can win as much as he does with 2-3 star JUCOs, imagine what he could do at Alabama?"

    It's uncanny, but greater talent doesn't always means greater success for a coach. I think that is where understanding the different types of athletes come into play. A lot of psychology is involved...
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  7. themistocles

    themistocles VIP Member

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    The * ratings are indicative, but far from definitive.

    The thing is that 5* kids are almost always physically superior to others, unless they are pro-style white QBs, and thus, usually end up being either starters, stars or superstars on top teams. 4* are usually better than 3*, but, as mule noted, not always.

    Mac was a very good recruiter, although he did have difficulty pulling in 5* kids, which admittedly is very difficult without resorting to $$$$. He did have a real talent for identifying underrated 3* kids who should have been 4*, or even 5* (e.g. Callaway & Jawaan Taylor), although, at least to now, his 2* kids haven't proven to be as good as Urban Meyer's were.

    byrd, the proof that Mac was a good recruiter shows with the 5*/4* comparison you just did, and remember that in that comparison, Jawaan Taylor, Kylan Johnson, Voseen Joseph, Heggie, McCoy, etc., etc.. were all 3* players.
  8. eightiesgator

    eightiesgator GC Hall of Fame

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    While there is no question whatsoever that stars matter (7 of the top 10 programs over the last 15 years also were among the top ten in recruiting, with Wisconsin, VT and Oregon being the over-achievers), stars alone do not tell the entire story. By all rights, the best team in the nation the last 15 years should have been Southern Cal. After all, they had the highest star average of every team in the nation.

    But compare USC to Stanford over the past five years. USC out-recruits Stanford (and everyone else except for Alabama), yet Stanford's record has been better. It's not an accident, or an easier schedule, or JUST coaching, or magic.
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  9. ncargat1

    ncargat1 VIP Member

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    The "reason" I would assume should actually be "reasons", and to that point, one MAJOR reason is the $1.5M more he will make per season at UF then he would have made in his highest salary season at MSU.

    As to your hypothesis, it goes pretty much without dispute you are 100% correct that UF will always potentially land more talent than will MSU. Further, over the past few seasons UF has landed more 4* players vs MSU at a rate of about 2:1.

    I will be very curious to see if that changes at MSU now that Joe Moorehead (I guy who I think is one of the best offensive minds in the country, let alone the SEC now). If he can find a real QB to play at MSU, look out.

    Here are some really interesting thoughts from an MSU board discussing Mullen and his negative recruiting of MSU after he came to UF, but the guy makes some really good points about the challenges at MSU that simply are not found at a place like Florida and that really, really supports you thesis.

    Link: Dan Mullen recruiting
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  10. AFCyberGator

    AFCyberGator GC Hall of Fame

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    The discussion of star ratings is that we tend to look at the overall number of athletes, but not the dispersion of those athletes, the ratings of their backups, and the amount of contribution (due to injury or suspension). UF 5-star athletes tend to get injured, and have 3-star backups. Alabama has historically backed up its 5-star players with 4-star players. Yes, UF did develop some 3-star athletes into 4- and 5-star potential, but how many of them were injured or suspended?

    At MSU, Mullen had no choice but to develop 3-star athletes into 4-star potential, and back that up with unrated players and JUCO transfers. Some of the few talented athletes who did choose MSU were caught up in Ole Miss' recruiting violations. Mullen probably has learned from his close encounter with NCAA violations at MSU that if he does recruit good athletes, that his assistants have done so within NCAA guidelines. Mullen should have more insight into his assistants since he hand-picked the ones he trusts, knows well, and believes in.

    All that to say, Mullen has no excuse at Florida. He has the resources at UF to attract 5-star starters with 4-star backups. He has assistants that have worked within his system for several years who know how to develop 3-star athletes. He has been slapped with NCAA violations before for not paying enough attention to his assistants, so he knows to watch over that aspect. He has an okay record with managing a roster depleted by injury and suspension. Mullen really has no excuse not to succeed at Florida.
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  11. DieAGator

    DieAGator GC Hall of Fame

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    We know Mullen left Miss St for a number of reasons, one being to level the playing field so to speak and to recruit then compete on the higher level. He was also offered a substantial pay raise from a University with more resources.
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  12. T3goalie

    T3goalie Premium Member

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    3 star athletes are D1 athletes . The question is whether some develop into "primo" players vs. functional contributing players.

    Bama has been loading up the first round of the NFL draft and winning National Championships because it has been securing and developing the primos, not merely the functional.

    Star ratings are not dispositive by any stretch, but to dismiss them would be to argue against reality. See Bama, OSU, Clemson...

    Mullen has more resources at UF and a better brand to recruit the primos than he had at MSU. That said he built a competitive culture in Starkville . IMO he left a better team (current) for a better opportunity.
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  13. eightiesgator

    eightiesgator GC Hall of Fame

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    ...that comes with FAR greater demands.
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  14. T3goalie

    T3goalie Premium Member

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    Agree 100%. And I think Mullen has the competitive arrogance to meet those demands and succeed.
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  15. nawlinsgator

    nawlinsgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Talent still trumps coaching the majority of the time. Saban is a great coach. But give him mediocre talent, and he wouldn't be where he is today. One of the best (or worst, depending on your point of view) characteristics of Saban is that he will push the envelope to get every advantage humanly possible, and a lot of that applies to recruiting the best players.
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  16. GatorSean

    GatorSean GC Hall of Fame

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    I just went through the entire list of MSU head football coaches (Link: List of Mississippi State Bulldogs head football coaches - Wikipedia).

    Mullen is the only one since Darrell Royal in 1955 to land a better job after coaching at MSU.

    The place is just a graveyard for head coaching careers.

    Royal, BTW, has the exact same winning percentage at MSU as Mullen does (.600), and then he went on to win 3 national championships at Texas. :cool:
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  17. kryptonite

    kryptonite GC Hall of Fame

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    I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I think Mac had some success with underrated 3* kids. However, I would never take his classes over Georgia's last two classes.

    I would not say that Jawaan Taylor should have been a 5*; he was a welcome surprise but had a very underwhelming Sophomore year. McCoy has been serviceable but not a breakout player. Joseph has great athleticism, but is still very raw going into his third year. Kylan Johnson is fragile. AC had red flags in his recruitment that revealed themselves at UF. Pretty much all of the good 3* kids showed some of the reasons they were not high 4* and 5* recruits, with the exception of maybe Polite.

    I would call Mac an only decent recruiter with some redeeming qualities, such as leaving a balanced roster that even a good recruiter like Zook didn't do. I would only dog Mac seriously for how he left us light at LB and in the secondary.
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  18. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    Taylor was a great get. He got to play immediately due to Muschamp's weakness on OL recruiting and was a freshman all American. Taylor was overlooked due to his bad weight but he turned himself around. Good get. 3 star Heggie redshirted and has long term potential. McCoy is a legacy player who transferred in due to weak Muschamp OL recruiting. Joseph was a good 3 star LB. Mac had some bad gets in that class also.

    To be objective Muschamp was a great defensive recruiter but poor offensive recruiter. Mac was in a tough situation with Muschamp's 2 losing season's prior to his arrival and did not have a loyal staff developed like Mullen has. Mullen's first class is better than Mac's.

    Mac did great with what he had the first two seasons winning the SEC East. It was hard for Mac to recruit due to the damage that the weak prior 2 years of on the field performance by Muschamp had done. The talent loss from the 9 suspensions plus 11 injuries sunk Mac in season 3. That is why you cannot assume your players will be healthy this early in the process.

    To be objective Mac recruited good filling the gap Muschamp on offense left there by getting 4 stars Callaway and Scarlett in his initial class. I think Mullen's initial WR class is better with 5 star Grimes, 4 star Van Jefferson, 4 star Copeland and 4 star Watkins.

    Mac struck out at QB his first class. Mullen started much better with 4 star Jones that Bama and OSU wanted. QB is very important in the SEC.
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2018
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  19. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    Mullen could have gotten more raises at MSU and had more job security than he will have have at UF. Mullen wants national championships and has a better chance of getting them at UF. He came here for the right reasons and the system that he and Meyer have fits the type talent we have in Florida.

    Mullen will have to wait on the new football center a few years because we have to build a new baseball stadium first on a new site before we tear the old one down for the football center. That is the best long term plan for UF football because it doubles the land size of our football complex which is close to the Stadium. Mullen sees the long term benefits and the greatness UF football can have like when he was winning national championships at UF.
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2018
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  20. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    It's all about player development. Coaching is a MAJOR component of winning programs. That's why the salaries are so insane at the highest levels. With the right head coach, and the resources to support them ($$$$$) you can crack the top ten. Scott Frost, Bill Snyder, Chris Petersen, David Cutcliffe, Gary Patterson, Tom Herman, P.J. Fleck, Justin Fuente and Ken Niumatalolo have all done more with less.

    And yeah -- you gotta have a bunch of good players.
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