Best Case for Us Next Year?

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by GATOR_4Life, Dec 3, 2013.

  1. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Oaktown, what absolutely amazes me is that so many otherwise intelligent people simply cannot (or are not willing to) grasp this fundamental concept. It is consistent throughout CFB history. When a team loses 12+ starters, they have an 18% chance of either duplicating or exceeding their previous year's record, and that doesn't even take into account injuries during the year.

    Of those 18%, most had experienced, outstanding quarterbacks. Zook's 2003 and 2004 teams are among the 18%, and he had an outstanding quarterback on his team. The vast majority of teams do not have that luxury.

    Understanding logistics is a critical element of executive management at all levels. Not all, or even most, of an entity's problems are due to the failure of leadership. As they say in the military, tactics and straategy may win battles, but logistics win wars. The Civil War is a prime example of that, as is World War II.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Number of possible personnel losses for our top rivals:

    School-------# Lost Starters (est)-----Notes

    Alabama.............................10...................QB, 1 WR, 2-3 DBs
    Florida St............................10...................WR, 2 DBs, 2 LBs
    Georgia.................................7...................QB, 3 OL, TE
    LSU.......................................8...................QB, RB, 2 LBs
    Mizzou................................11...................QB, WR, 2 OL, 3 DBs, 2 LBs
    USCe.....................................5...................QB, 2 DL
    Vandy.................................13....................QB, 2 WRs, 2 DLs, 2 LB, 4 DBs

    Of these teams, Vandy is hit hardest, followed by Mizzou. Alabama usually reloads, as I think FSU will. Georgia, LSU and USCe lose the least, but they all lose their senior QBs.
  3. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Good info - also good to see the breakdown. UGA for instance doesn't lose much but losing 3 OL starters and their QB could really hurt that team. Mizzou and Vandy both appear to be hard hit on defense as well as losing their QB.
  4. broncogators
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    broncogators Member

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    I just hope i don't have to say "worst gator football season in 3 decades"
  5. SeaBud
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    SeaBud Active Member

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    You and I just have a different perspective. Miami, Georgia, Vandy and S. Carolina were all WINNABLE - not that he should have won all 4 but he should have won 2 of those. As to the repeated citation of injuries justifying those losses, again, you are entitled to your opinion. However, others are entitled to point out that PROBATION, turnovers, bad luck and injuries plagued many Gator teams over the last 3 decades and NONE of those teams had losing records. You can opine that I am wrong but that is worth the same as my opinion - nothing. If your point in the second sentence is that CWM to date is nowhere near elite, we agree.

    Yes, Spurrier gets the blame for that loss. Coaches get the blame for losses and credit for wins. It is true that some seasons suffer due to injuries, turnovers and good/bad luck, but coaches get the blame and credit for the record. They are judged by their body of work as represented by wins. Spurrier's body of work is damn impressive despite a loss to an Auburn team in 2001 - 8 SEC championships and a nattie. There is a double standard created by coaches winning (especially championships). You may disagree, but it is true. If Saban had continued losing after year 1 at Bama, he would not be there now. He could now go 7-6 and be safe. He has credibility. CWM simply does not. CWM will benefit from this "double standard" (as you call it) after he wins championships. Not before. You seem to give him such credit for the 11-2 record. Your choice.

    Whose fault is it that CWM has a limited reservoir of credibility? Not the fans. Only CWM controls that. Winning will cure what ails CWM and all the excuses in the world will do nothing next year.

    What bothers me and many others about your posts is how you so confidently state things such as:
    "No coach would have won 8 or 9 games with this squad. Not even Saban or Meyer. "

    You do not know this. You have an opinion, but you say it as a fact defending CWM. To date, your opinion has self admittedly been wrong based on at least the Ga. So. game. I submit it is wrong overall, but that is just my opinion - not a fact. Look, you are obviously a CWM believer. I put the odds of him succeeding at 15% (before the season I said 30%). I just see consistent signs of immaturity (as a HC), lack of discipline (him and team), lack of imagination and poor technique coaching. You see something different and think he wins 9+ games next year - I hope you are right. Care to put your $ where your mouth is and bet $1k paid by the loser to the winners favorite charity? You win if the gators win 9 or more games in the regular season next year. I win otherwise.

    You say:
    "What I SAID was that it was delusional to EXPECT a 9+ win season with all the injuries/attrition we had.
    Get my words right, please."

    Please look at post #15 on this thread at 9:27am by you:
    * Expecting 9+ wins EVERY year is delusional.

    I quoted you exactly in my response in post #38 on this thread. You can either recognize that you were quoted correctly or go with the often wrong but never in doubt defense.

    BTW - I'm done on this thread. Hope you are right about CWM and let me know if you want to make the bet.
  6. LonedawgUF18280
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    Did you really put Evans on the list to prove your point? Evans was okay at best. The defense was not bad this year, the DL was thin but thats what happens when there is no depth. Hunter did not live up to the hyp, Morrison looked better than Jenkins near seasons end last year, then again looked entitled this year and didnt play well at all. Easly was our biggest injury this year. You are correct and I over looked a few players, but do you really think this was a case of Champ winning with Urbs players? I dont, not in the slightest. People said the same thing about Urb winning with Zooks recruits but he shut em up when he won with his own 2 years later.

    As for the comment about we do not have more talent on the roster than they do or if we do it must be the coaches. Please tell me how you are supposed to win ball games when half your offensive line is out for the year, your starting QB is done after game 3, your back up qb is done a few games later, your starting RB is out for the year, the best DT in college football is gone after game 3, and you get down to your scout team walk on MLB by seasons end? Please tell me what coaching staff would win 8 games with that happening? We had a butt load of talent on the sidelines, on crutches or in slings watching. I dont care who you you cannot win with that amount of injuries. I am not saying we would have won 10 games if everyone was healthy or just one or two folks got hurt. I have no problem giving Boom one more year. If we get the same crap next year its time to move on.
  7. 3xchump
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    Evans is a starter in the NFL. I don't know how you can discount that.

    Floyd
    Bostic
    Evans
    Elam
    Reed
    Sturgis

    All NFL starters from last years team. Jelani Jenkins, Jaye Howard, and Mike Gilleslie have all played. Frankie Hammond, Xavier Nixon, and Lerentee McCray are all on NFL teams. That makes 12 players from last years team alone in the NFL. Add Easley, Powell, Roberson, and Purifoy most likely being "first day" picks, plus a few others being drafted in the later rounds, you'll have around 20 Urban players from our "11-1!" 2012 team playing on Sundays.

    The only Muschamp player making an impact is Fowler. The rest? Meh.

    Who knows, maybe Dan Quinn was the real defensive genius last year. Just look at what Seattle did to the Saints on Monday night.

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