Balance, Balance, Balance

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by rserina, Jan 19, 2014.

  1. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Great stuff, Rade.

    Have to be impressed with our balance, and our contribution from the fifth leading scorer.
  2. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. There always seems to be a big deal made of having all/almost all of our starters average in double figures, and indeed UF's approach does seem to be at least somewhat unique. It is interesting that so far each of these teams has had relatively consistent patterns of scoring distribution, really showing a coaching fingerprint.
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  3. KAGator67
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    KAGator67 Member

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    Yes .. it's balance ... but also what I like is that others can take up the slack in scoring when someone on the team falls a little short... Case in point last game .. a la Frazier.. who is awesome ,... however had an off game..others on the team made up for him..Just like our previous National Championship team..
  4. GatorCrazy11
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    GatorCrazy11 Active Member

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    Those charts are very interesting, Rade. Thanks for putting them together.
  5. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    That is a great point and sort of what I was thinking with the original post. What intrigues me is not only that someone different can step up, but that the diversity of skills enables those guys to contribute in different ways. It makes us very hard to defend. Want to go zone to defend the paint and take away the high ball screen action? Prather is deadly from the elbow and attacking the baseline, Yeguete gets garbage buckets and offensive boards, Hill and Wilbekin can penetrate and kick in the gaps, and Frazier can shoot you out of it. Want to switch your screens? Hill, Wilbekin, and Prather can get to the rim and Young can post against mismatches. Want to hedge on the screens? We have DFS on the pick and pops. Go under the screens? Wilbekin and Frazier can hit their jumpers. Double in the post? Frazier, Wilbekin, and DFS can get their threes on ball rotation.

    This isn't Donovan's best offense by any stretch (that goes to either 2000-01, 2006-07, or 2011-12), but it is so versatile and balanced that we can find ways to score against any defensive approach--provided the guys we need to score are hitting their shots.
  6. Jonas
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    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    So for the stat nerds, why does KenPom have us ranked relatively low? Are close games against not so good opponents like Auburn hurting us? Did all the injuries early in the season affect our efficiency and we are still overcoming that?

    Also, are his rankings still sensitive to new data? I could have sworn we were 7 last week but now we are 18. Even FSU is ranked higher.
  7. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    Not sure which factors influence his ratings, but in terms of efficiency were are hardly strong as an offense. We don't have a good assist/turnover ratio, we don't have good three point shooting, and we don't shoot free throws well. I know all of that plays heavily into efficiency statistics. We waste a lot of possessions. But we still find a way to score no matter the opponent, in part because we have an answer no matter the defense.
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  8. Ahab
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    Ahab Well-Known Member

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    This team is reminding me of the 94 Final 4 team. No real star but the pieces all fit together well.
  9. REM08
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    REM08 Well-Known Member

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    Really, really nice charts GatorRade. You did right with the blue too! Maybe could have gone with more of a purple/pink theme for Duke, but whatever...
  10. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Indeed, his system is only based off of scoring efficiency adjusted to strength of schedule. To break down what that means:

    (1) Efficiency is points/possession. Rather than using points per game, which is influenced by tempo, KenPom looks at how many points do you score each time you get the ball, which will change based on who you are playing. So his model looks at how many points does your team score per possession, but also how many points do you give up per possession. But what if you've been playing weak teams? Well...

    (2) The ratings are adjusted for strength of schedule. More specifically, KenPom's model sort of zeros in on how your team would do against the most average team by seeing how your team fares against an opponent compared to what an average team should do. Team A averages 1.2 points per possession against average competition, but you held them to 0.9 points per possession? Then you had an above average outing on defense. If you continually have above average outings, then your rating would reflect that of an above average defense...which Florida's does, currently giving up 0.92 pts/poss, good for 14th in the nation. PS Home court advantage plays a big role in determining expected outcomes as well.

    So to specifically answer your question, Florida has had a number of underwhelming outings, none of which were our two losses. Close losses at Wisconsin and UConn? Expected. Our first bad game was an 8 point victory with 75 possessions against the 254th ranked North Florida at home. No way should we only have an 8 point lead after 75 possessions. Drop from 3rd to 7th. Another drop came after a one point win over FSU at home (before FSU had a high rating). Drop from 7th to 12th. 11 point win against Richmond at home. Drop to 17th. Climb up over a few games, and drop from 12th to 18th after a close win at Auburn. Meanwhile, our rating has also been influenced the performance of our opponents, retroactively changing our expected outcomes against them. Memphis and UConn dropping to 35th and 36th hurts our rating.

    So basically, KenPom's rating doesn't treat one point wins much differently than one point losses. Those two outcomes are only separated by only two points. But win by one when you were expected to win by 20? That's a problem. Or win by 30 when you were expected to lose? Then you jump from 13 to two, like Creighton just did.

    Hope that helps.
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  11. Jonas
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    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the write up. So what's your take on why defensive teams like Wisconsin seem to be overrated by KenPom? KenPom is supposed to be predictive of future results too right?
  12. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, that is KenPom's goal, to rate the power of teams. KenPom's Wisconsin ratings are always an interesting topic. Usually people on here assume that the model overrates slow teams, but I don't think that this hypothesis is supported. You are thinking of them as a defensive team, but interestingly, their high rating this year is almost entirely due to their offensive rating (4th) and not their defensive rating (53rd), and this seems to be the case about half the time.

    So where does their rating originate? I think it comes from a few factors: (1) strong schedule and (2) they often beat weak teams by a decent scoring margin/possession. And then if they lose to good teams, especially on the road, it doesn't affect their rating very much. I've also seen some analysis that suggests that (3) they've over-performed at home. But it also seems that many times, the other models also highly rate Wisconsin (E.g. today KenPom has them at 15, while Sagarin Predictor has them at 14), so it might not be a KenPom only issue.

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