Auburn will steamroll the noles

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by algator27, Dec 27, 2013.

  1. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    I'm not prepared to say "great," but certainly better than Auburn's. And that's the rub, in my opinion.
  2. g8rvet
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    g8rvet Active Member

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    obob, I guess it comes down to how well FSu's D can stop the run and how well Aub can stop the pass. I think both O's will do fine and get theirs, so it may come down to the opposite-how well FSu can run and how well Aub can pass to set the tone of the game.
  3. capnpen
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    capnpen Active Member

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    Agreed. Auburn has gotten better each week, and I think that's the best argument for predicting their victory. I still think that FSU has the edge. They've been more consistent on both sides of the ball all season, and they have multiple weapons on offense. No one has really "solved" the Auburn offense yet, but if FSU figures it out (and there's a decent chance they'll have some success on defense), then Auburn doesn't really have a passing game to carry the load.
  4. Lawdog88
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    Lawdog88 Well-Known Member

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    Major Wright could take care of the Benjamin problem.

    Well, maybe in the old days.
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  5. pringleg
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    pringleg VIP Member

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    I have been thinking about this matchup for awhile and in doing so I had several questions. I did some research on those questions and here is the product. There are no answers here just some different info on the questions.

    1. Will FSU be able to stop the Auburn running game? - FSU faced 2 rushing offenses statically in the top 50, BC at #20 and Syracuse at #38. In both games FSU held them below their average yards per game (BC -18 and Syracuse -51). This would seem to say that Auburn would gain slightly below their average of 335 yards per game. Alabama and Missouri were two of the best rush defenses in the country statistically prior to their games with Auburn and Auburn shredded them. Alabama gave up 23% of their season rush total to Auburn. Missouri gave up 27.6% of their season rush total to Auburn. Those numbers are AMAZING! Two excellent rush defenses knew what was coming and could not stop Auburn’s rushing attack. Alabama gave up 3.57 times its per game average, while Missouri gave up 4.58 times its per game average. Prior to the Auburn game both the Alabama and Missouri rush defenses were better than FSU’s statistically. If FSU gives up a similar multiple to what Alabama gave up, it would extrapolate to Auburn gaining 415 yards rushing. I would say this is a bad omen for FSU.

    2. With additional time to practice against the Auburn offense will FSU be able to keep the Auburn running game in check? - When Arkansas played Auburn they did a very good job statically hold down Auburn’s running game (- 102 yards from their average). Arkansas had a week off to prepare for the game. So did that week of preparation make the difference or was it fresh legs? One thing Arkansas did in this game was keep the ball away from Auburn. Auburn only had 54 plays in the game. Auburn averages about 72 plays a game, Arkansas was able to reduce their number of plays by 18. In this game Auburn still rushed for over 5 yards per play and they won 37-17. I am not sure FSU will be able to use the control the clock strategy as they are more of a quick strike passing team.

    3. Will Auburn be able to control FSU’s passing game? – Auburn faced 6 teams with passing offenses in the top 50 of college football. So half their games against FBS opponents were against teams with elite passing offenses. In those games Auburn gave up more than the opponent’s average yardage per game in 4 of the games with the worst game statistically against Texas A&M where they gave up 169 more yards than A&M’s average. So this trend does not bode well for Auburn; however, they did do other things in pass defense very well in those games. They intercepted 10 passes in those 6 games, broke up 28 passes, hurried the quarterback 45 times and sacked the quarterback 17 times. On a rating basis the Auburn pass defense held 5 of the top passing attacks below their average rating. FSU is a pass first team with 71.5% of their offense in the first half coming from passing. In the second half of games their pass yardage is only 50.9% of their total. FSU’s passing in the first half may be an early indicator of how the game will go.

    4. Who will win the turnover battle? – FSU has had an amazing year creating turnovers with 34 created while loosing just 17 for a +17 margin (tied for second in the country). Auburn has created 18 turnovers while loosing 18. A few other interesting turnovers stats, FSU has never had a negative turnover margin in a game this season (had a margin of 0 in 4 games); FSU created 18 1st half turnovers and scored 14 times after those 1st half turnovers (this accounted for 33% of FSU’s first half scoring); 25 of the turnovers created by FSU were interceptions; finally Auburn has won 5 games with a negative turnover margin. So while turnovers would seem to favor FSU their most prolific unit was their pass defense; however, Auburn only averages less than 20 pass attempts per game and in their last 5 SEC games threw the ball only a total of 70 times for an average of 14 attempts per game.
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  6. The_Graygator
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    The_Graygator Well-Known Member

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    There is no "Post #83" in this thread, not one that I can find, so again, I don't have any idea what you're referring to. How about cutting and pasting it verbatim so I can see?
  7. g8tr96
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    Considering your post here is #146 in this thread, there has to be a post #83 in this thread, and all other threads that have 84 or more posts in them. In this thread all's you gotta do is look on page 5 to see post #83
  8. AndyGator
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    AndyGator Well-Known Member

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    There is no "Post #83" in this thread, not one that I can find, so again, I don't have any idea what you're referring to. How about cutting and pasting it verbatim so I can see?

    Grey, my post was cut and pasted verbatim. It was in response to OBOB. The post number is at the bottom right of each post. For example, this post is post #148.
  9. The_Graygator
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    The_Graygator Well-Known Member

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    Ok, I'm tired of this.

    I did go back before, looked at page #5 and saw posts #82 (acumen) and then #84 (Seacay), there was no post #83 between them that I can see and I certain did not place my own posts on "ignore", and I still do not recall mentioning anything about a "stout Gator run defense" as you have suggested.

    I asked you to paste the comment from this "post #83" and you haven't done it. My guess is you have me mixed up with someone else.
  10. AndyGator
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    AndyGator Well-Known Member

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    THIS IS HIS POST:

    "Wilder had 6+ ypc against us and we had a pretty stout run defense." By OBOB, post number 83.

    It was quoted in my original post, which was not even about you. Not every post is about you. Why are we spending so much time about this?
  11. rmfleone06
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    rmfleone06 Active Member

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    I typically agree with what you say, however your point on being in the SEC not improving recruiting is very wrong. According to 247 all 14 SEC tteams are ranked in the top 39 of recruiting classes while only 7 ACC teams have top 40 classes. Also SEC has 6 top 10 classes and 8 top 15 while the ACC has 2 and 3 respectively. The SEC dominance greatly influences recruiting.
  12. acumen
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    acumen New Member

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    You're not taking into account those defenses without Auburn. Missouri was ranked 2nd in the SEC in rushing defense before the SECCG. After the game they fell to 9th, in one game. (I forget where they were ranked nationally, but it was in the top 20. After their game vs. AU they fell to 50th). Prior to that game, Mizzou was giving up 119 yards per game on the ground. AU rushed for 545 yards.

    Bammer was in the top 5 nationally in rush defense before AU played them, giving up 91 rush yards a game. AU rushed for 296, dropping their ranking to 11th.

    I wouldn't look at the LSU, MSU, and Ole Miss games as being indicative of anything. Gus said after the LSU loss they had a bye week and reevaluated everything on offense. They came out the next week throwing a lot less and running the zone read a lot more. When AU played MSU (3rd week), Nick Marshall had been on campus 4 or 5 weeks. He literally got to AU, practiced for a week or so and then suited up. This is why AU has improved so much on offense throughout the year -- Marshall is basically getting "on the job" training as he goes. I've watched AU football for 25 years and never seen a team improve every week like this. Ever. It's mind-boggling how different of a team this is from Washington St. to now.

    Their biggest improvement came during Tennessee week where they destroyed (an admittedly weak) UT. They got better the next week vs. UGA (game was a blowout at half, but AU let them have the 4th quarter). They got better vs. bammer. And their peak came against Mizzou where they put up 677 yards on the 5th ranked team and eastern division champ.

    The question is will they improve even more with 4 weeks off? Or will it hurt them? I guess that's why we play the game.
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  13. Diesel350z
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    Diesel350z Well-Known Member

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    Lol

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  14. cistern
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    cistern Active Member

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    Nah, that kind of stuff doesn't matter. :rolleyes:
  15. Minister_of_Information
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    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

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    Auburn is going to come out like a pack of crazed dogs and have some fun.
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  16. The_Graygator
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    The_Graygator Well-Known Member

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    ANDY, I'm so sorry, but I guess I was talking to you with wires crossed. I thought you were responding to me after my first post and for some reason (my own oblivious nature of late), I thought you were talking to me. I have OBOB on ignore because I can't tolerate his endless need to provoke.

    Sorry 'bout that... mistake is all mine.
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  17. Forceps
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    Forceps New Member

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    that's hilarious, considering that Rashad Greene is his #1 target. He, Benjamin, and Shaw all have over 900 yds, so, pick your poison.
  18. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    You are correct by saying this, but I regionalized it. Florida and Florida, as well as clemson and USCe, are very similar schools insofar as the relative quality of their football programs, and both schools recruit similarly. They always have. I doubt seriously that either FSU or clemson would smoke Florida and USCe, respectively, in recruiting, had both joined the SEC.
  19. Wormwood56
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    I can agree with this to a point, but one game doesn;t really make THAT much difference when the season is this deep. It may move it a couple percentage points, or even 4-5, but that isn't enough to sway the differences. Add ten percentage points to FSU's total defense and remove ten percentage points from Auburn's, and you would still have a 13th ranked defense versus a 79th ranked defense. They ar worlds apart.
  20. rmfleone06
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    rmfleone06 Active Member

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    The difference is that FSU and Clemson are national brnds and recruit themselves. But you are wrong if you think being in the SEC does not give UF an eedge. Just read what Quincy Wilson has said this week about being committed to the SEC. also look at the classes of GT and UGA, same region both recruit top talentbut UGA is n the SEC.

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