Auburn will steamroll the noles

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by algator27, Dec 27, 2013.

  1. DMann
    Offline

    DMann Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    2,846
    Likes Received:
    110
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Hendersonville, NC
    Ratings Received:
    +426
    Back to the original question, FSU should cover the spread. As good as Auburn blocks downfield, they'll have to get past FSU's DT's first. I think FSU's front 7 are better than any SEC team's except Bama. To make matters worse, FSU's receivers - especially Benjamin, should have a big game against Auburn's secondary. IMHO, Bama is the SEC team that would take FSU to the woodshed. I'll pick the very good passing team vs. the very good running team - especially when the passing team plays better D. FSU by 11.
  2. 92gator
    Offline

    92gator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2007
    Messages:
    5,886
    Likes Received:
    296
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +807
    You're the stat geek. Why don't you show how the SEC was supposedly tougher in the 90's, than it is today? You seem to have all the time in the world for assembling every statistical analytic for any assertion ever made. Knock yourself out.

    One poster asserted it; I agreed with it--based on what I see and have seen with my own two eyes. As much as I loved the SEC in the 90's, the weakest champ of this 7x run would destroy the strongest champ of the 90's. Bigger. Faster. Stronger. Tougher.


    Well golly gee, you reeeeeaaaaalllly dun did burn't me there.

    Right. Mickey Andrews is, was, and always will be, clean as the wind driven snow.

    Or did you think I was talking about Mickey Mouse?

    Perhaps you thought I was referring to Julie Andrews?

    Either way....lol yourself.

    Whatever. I'll tell you when people don't talk about punch'n people in the mouth--when they're talking about Steve Spurrier's 90's Gators. That just wasn't our style.

    Yes. And that was merely my opinion that you went all apesh*t over.

    And btw, I don't disagree with any of the remainder of your opinion in this paragraph.

    ...and none of us Gator(or SEC) fans, needed statistics to tell us what we knew from watching with our own eyes.
  3. Wormwood56
    Offline

    Wormwood56 VIP Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    5,344
    Likes Received:
    318
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,272
    Easy answer. No. Now what team has Auburn faced that had as good an offense as FSU AND has a top 5 defense?

    Remember, Auburn didn't pile up fancy offensive stats in an Defense-oriented conference like the Big XII or PAC. Top 30 in total defense and total offense (BCS conferences only):

    Total Defense--------------------------------------------------Total Offense

    Rank---School-----------------Conference------------------Rank---School-----------------Conference


    1............Michigan State........................BiG.....................................1.........Baylor..............................Big XII
    2............Louisville.................................AAC....................................2.........Oregon.............................PAC
    3............Florida State............................ACC....................................3.........Texas A&M......................SEC
    4............Virginia Tech...........................ACC...................................4..........Florida State....................ACC
    5.............Alabama.................................SEC....................................5..........Ohio State........................BiG
    6.............Wisconsin...............................BiG.....................................6..........Texas Tech.......................Big XII
    7..............Iowa.......................................BiG....................................7...........Indiana............................BiG (!)
    8..............Florida....................................SEC....................................8...........Auburn............................SEC
    9..............Cincinnati...............................AAC...................................9...........Clemson...........................ACC
    10............USC.........................................PAC.................................10...........Washington.....................PAC
    11.............Oklahoma..............................Big XII............................11............Mizzou.............................SEC
    12.............Stanford..................................PAC.................................12............Georgia............................SEC
    13.............Baylor......................................Big XII...........................13............Wisconsin........................BiG
    14.............USCe........................................SEC.................................14............Ole Miss..........................SEC
    15..............LSU.........................................SEC..................................15............Cincinnati.......................AAC
    16..............Georgia Tech..........................ACC..................................16............Oregon State..................PAC
    17..............USF.........................................AAC...................................17............LSU................................SEC
    18..............Clemson...................................ACC..................................18............Louisville........................AAC
    19..............Vandy......................................SEC....................................19............Arizona State.................PAC
    20..............TCU.........................................Big XII..............................20...........Cal..................................PAC
    21...............Ohio State...............................BiG....................................21............USCe..............................SEC
    22...............Arizona St...............................PAC....................................22...........Arizona...........................PAC
    23...............Notre Dame............................Ind.....................................23............Alabama........................SEC
    24...............Wake Forest............................ACC...................................24............UCLA.............................PAC
    25...............Miss State................................SEC....................................25............Georgia Tech.................ACC
    26...............Kansas State............................Big XII..............................26............Oklahoma State.............Big XII
    27...............Nebraska.................................BiG.....................................27............Penn State......................BiG
    28...............Syracuse..................................ACC....................................28............UCF................................AAC
    29...............Michigan.................................BiG.....................................29............North Carolina...............ACC
    30...............Pitt...........................................ACC....................................30............Miami.............................ACC

    Now compare the numbers to determine which conference leans one way, the other, or is balanced:

    Conference-----------Total Defense---------Total Offense-----Total

    AAC....................................3......................................3..............................6
    ACC....................................7......................................5............................12
    BiG.....................................6......................................4............................10
    Big XII...............................4.....................................3...............................7
    PAC-12................................3.....................................7............................10
    SEC.....................................6......................................8............................14

    For Auburn, their offense played 3 of the nation's 30 top defenses, while their defense played 6 of the nation's 30 top offenses (and Miss State was just behind Miami). This tells me that their defense is probably better than their 89th ranking shows.

    For FSU, their offense played 3 of the nation's top 30 defenses, while their defense played only 2 of the nation's top 30 offenses. This tells me that perhaps FSU's defense may not be as good as the numbers reflect.

    Both offenses are probably as good as advertised, although Auburn had to play Alabama and LSU, while Florida state missed both Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.

    As an aside, let's see the records of those teams that finished on both lists:

    School-------------W/L Record

    Florida State..............13-0
    Louisville...................12-1
    Ohio State.................12-1
    Alabama....................11-1
    Baylor........................11-1
    Clemson....................10-2
    USCe..........................10-2
    Arizona State.............10-3
    LSU..............................9-3
    Wisconsin....................9-3
    Cincinnati....................9-4
    Georgia Tech...............7-5

    Hmmm. I would venture to guess that Georgia Tech's head coach my be getting a warm seat. Ditto with Dan Mullen's 6-6 record at Miss State, who was in the top 30 on defense and 31st on offense.
  4. 92gator
    Offline

    92gator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2007
    Messages:
    5,886
    Likes Received:
    296
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +807
    Do you see any disconnect in the bolded portions?

    (glass houses come to mind...).

    ...

    First of all, who gives a crap what they think of us? Do you go around thinking Georgia is somehow enlightened? Alabama? Mississippi? Or do you poke at them, where you think it'll hurt them?

    Secondly, as for AU and UA being lying cheat'n sh*tbags--they were. Doesn't for a second, mean we were wise to follow in their footsteps, and hire Charlie Pell, AFTER he got run out of town for pulling the same corrupt crap at Clemson (which of course, he learned from Bear Bryant). The reason those punks had to cheat, is because they didn't have the natural attractants that Florida had. That's exactly why Bear Bryant said if they ever get a coach down there who knows what he's doing, Florida would dominate the Conference. Spurrier proved this, less than 10 years later.

    Third, Miami didn't have to cheat to get a national champ in '83. Point being--the talent was ALWAYS right under our flippn' nose, in our own back yard. We did not have to cheat--we chose to. You seem inclined to blame the SEC for turning us in. Wouldn't have been an issue, if we hadn't been so stupid about it in the first place. Their hypocrisy is theirs to bear; our cheat'n, was ours. And we bore it...and rose above it. Ancient history.

    I could go on, but this discussion is just stupid. You have this antiquated ax to grind/chip on your shoulder....move the hell on.
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2013
  5. Wormwood56
    Offline

    Wormwood56 VIP Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    5,344
    Likes Received:
    318
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,272
    Vet, the lying eyes are usually wrong, colored heavily by personal bias. One longtime poster here is the undisputed KING of the "officials are screwing the Gators" kingdom. anything that LOOKS like a hold that isn;t called is pointed out. Of course, this doesn't also apply to Florida. Those are good non-calls.

    The examples are many for the intangibles based on what your eyes (and more importantly, your heart) tells you.
    Our stout Orange and Blue hearts will always fill in a rational, logical excuse for when something goes awry. For example:

    * If Florida barely gets by Vandy, even if they have a 2-9 record while we are playing for a MNC, the Official Line is "Well, Vandy always seems to play us tough."

    * If Florida wins a tough game against Georgia or Auburn, regardless if they have strong teams or losing records, the Official Line is "Well, Georgia and Auburn are rivalry games! throw the W/L records out the window when those games are played!"

    * If Florida struggles against Ole Miss or Mississippi State, the Official Line is, "Well, those damned Mississippi schools just seem to have our number for some reason."

    * If Florida struggles against an OOC team, the Official Line is "We didn't really want to play the game anyway," "We would beat them nine times out of ten; they were just lucky," or the tried-and-true "We gave the game away" rationalization.

    * If, OTOH, we struggle against Florida State, the Official Lines are (as follows): They only play two tough games a year, so they are well-rested," "Their coaches teach the players to play dirty; they'd lose if the playing field was level." "The game means much more to the Noles than it does to the Gators; we want the SECCG."

    Of course, if the head coach is either Zook or Muschamp, none of the above apply. We are content to simply blame the head coach for it. If Meyer or SOS was the head coach, simple! Blame the OC (for Meyer) or the DC (for Spurrier). Problem solved!

    Needless to say, these same rationales could ALSO apply for fans of OOC teams, but fans rarely take the other teams into account. if we win and dominate, it is because we are Superior and the other team/conference sucks. If we lose, then the usual bromides come out. After a while, the pattern is set in stone. It applies to all fans of all teams. Indeed, it applies to history. Don't believe me? Talk about Gettysburg with a roomful of historians, or debate to determine who was more evil, Hitler, Stalin or Mao, and watch the fireworks fly!

    This is what makes debates and discussions fun. As a professional historian, I have no heroes or goats, and like Orwell, I think there is virtue in unpopular dissent. I loathe Party Lines.

    As for the stats, I did a study going back to 1990, pitting SEC teams against OOC teams from BCS conferences. Of the many games played, the SEC has an edge, but it isn't a dominant one.

    An X-win SEC team beats an X-win OOC team 53.7% of the time.

    An X-win SEC team beats an X+1 win OOC team 29.2% of the time.

    An X-win SEC team beats an X+2 win OOC team 15.7% of the time.

    Therefore one could realistically say that an X-win SEC team should usually be favored over an X-win OOC team, but an X+1 win SEC team should be a slight underdog, while an X+2 win SEC team should be a decided underdog.

    For your example, is a 9-3 Clemson team better than an 8-4 Georgia team, not counting the head to head game. According to statistics, they should win 70.8% of the time, but as the overall quality of the teams rise, the percentage lessens to the point where a 12-win SEC team should be a draw with a 13-win OOC team. Based on the numbers, Auburn SHOULD have a nailbiter with Florida State, but the numerical differences are so vast between FSU's offense and Auburn's defense that FSU should get the nod here.
  6. Wormwood56
    Offline

    Wormwood56 VIP Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    5,344
    Likes Received:
    318
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,272
    They all despise us for being transplanted Yankees in their precious conference. Don't know about you, but I tend not to support those who hold me in contempt...



    Actually, it was Pell who built the program and awakened the sleeping giant. Spurrier was nowhere around when we went 9-2-1, 9-1-1 and 9-1-1. The giant was fully awake, and the SEC had to do something--FAST!

    Nonetheless, they were cheating their butts off and got away with it because they were part of the Network, and we weren't. You think Alabama or Georgia would have been made an example of for all they did? Not a chance. We played by the same rules the other schools played by.

    Nope. Screw the SEC. As I said, I tend not to love those who hold us in contempt. I'll save that for USCe fans...
  7. 92gator
    Offline

    92gator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2007
    Messages:
    5,886
    Likes Received:
    296
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +807
    They're mostly just lashing out, attacking our 'weakness.'

    They recruit the hell out of this 'yankee transplant' state, for a bunch who supposedly 'despise' us.

    It's called ENVY.

    ...with bought and paid for talent.

    Spurrier did it on the up and up, and did it WITH SANCTIONS, complements of Charlie's cheat'n ways--which he learned from the Bear himself (I like to point out).

    NOTE: Charlie's sanctions got Galen Hall screwed, before SOS came---but Spurrier had to deal with the consequences of Charlie's legacy. He didn't need Charlie's 'legacy'--no more than he needed it at Duke.


    That makes them jealous, petty, cheating hypocrites.....

    ...who share our conference.


    You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but the SEC is a huge draw for UF--especially in terms of recruiting...especially against FSU and Miami.
  8. ACCecil
    Offline

    ACCecil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2007
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    70
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +392
    @121

    I'm not sure Bama would take FSU to the Woodshed. I think FSU would be fired up for that game and play lights out which is what it takes to beat Bama. You might see FSU at their best in that game. It would have been one heck of a match up, I appreciate unbeaten vs unbeaten, not to mention the fact that Bama would have been going for a 3rd straight NC.

    I think FSU matches up pretty well against Bama. No one seems to be able to get pressure on Bama's QB, you have to commit so many bodies to stop the run, it is hard, but I think FSU could stop, or at least slow down, Bama's running game with just the front 6. FSU has been playing 4 DL men, and 2 LB's and 5 DB's on first down with Lamarcus Joiner as the 5th DB who can blitz or the blitz can come from the other side. I think FSU's D could play well enough against Bama.

    I think FSU's O could get some business done against Bama's D. It would have been a great game. I am sorry we won't see it, oh hell, I won't lie, I wanted FSU - Ohio St. for obvious reasons. That would have been a lot easier than trying to beat Auburn. I'd be worried about how physical Bama is, they are like Nebraska from the mid-90's, they make no pretenses, they have a huge NFL OL and they are going to pound you plain and simple. They do a few roll out dump off type passes, a few screens, they'll throw deep now and then, but it is all predicated on "we are bigger and stronger than you" type football. FSU has some thick beefy dudes up on the DL. Not great pass rushers but great run stuffers. I would have enjoyed that game.
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. 92gator
    Offline

    92gator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2007
    Messages:
    5,886
    Likes Received:
    296
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +807
    ^^^concur on all points. Good post.

    I for one, won't back off of the SEC Champ, just because I think UA would have been better.

    Which also means, I won't be making any excuses if your boys win.

    IMO, if FSU beats AU, my hat will be the first to be taken off, in all sincerity.

    ...but the 'beating AU' thing--the beating the SEC Champ thing--has to come first.

    FWIW.
  10. g8rvet
    Offline

    g8rvet Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2011
    Messages:
    706
    Likes Received:
    63
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Ratings Received:
    +243
    inWorm
    I read those some excuses. They do not mean much to me. But just because an old saw is tired and antiquated, it does not mean it is never true. It is fine to be contrarian, but sometimes, conventional wisdom is actually right and sometimes stats do lie (actually, of course, they do not, they are just misinterpreted).

    I liked your X+1 wins vs X wins analogy and I use it regularly. It holds merit. HOWEVER, just because a team from the ACC is X wins and the SEC is X-1 wins does not mean that your overall average of those holds any truth whatsoever between those 2 teams. It only means if two teams with those rankings played 100 times, Y percentage would win. It means nothing for a single example where in the sample, n=1. In that case, one must also add watching the teams play and seeing how they match up and where their strengths and weaknesses are based on a season of playing. Injuries, distractions, rivalries, motivations, coaching DO make a difference in single games. Your model falls apart when looking at an individual matchup. That was my longwinded point.

    PS Who wrote the best volume on Robert E Lee? (Your answer will form my opinion on your historical qualifications). ;)
  11. Wormwood56
    Offline

    Wormwood56 VIP Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    5,344
    Likes Received:
    318
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,272
    92, I really don't think it is a great draw for recruiting. Since 2002, Florida was ranked 7th in the recuring on average while FSU was ranked 8th. USCe was ranked 18th while Clemson was ranked 19th. I don't think the SEC makes any difference.
  12. surfn1080
    Offline

    surfn1080 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2008
    Messages:
    1,115
    Likes Received:
    39
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +167
    I am a little late to the party but FSU has played crap for offense all year.
    Team - Scoring offense rank
    1. Nevada - 76
    2. Bethune-cookman - not an FBS school
    3. Boston College - 69
    4. Maryland - 78
    5. Clemson - 11
    6. North Carolina State - 98
    7. Miami - 24 (overrated....)
    8. Wake Forest - 114
    9. Syracuse - 98
    10. Idaho - 115
    11. Florida - 112 :(
    12. Duke - 49

    It is easy too look like a decent defense when you play that all year...
    • Winner Winner x 1
  13. Wormwood56
    Offline

    Wormwood56 VIP Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    5,344
    Likes Received:
    318
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,272
    The problem with convention wisdom is that it NEVER works both ways. When we win, if our opponents would proffer up those excuses, we would ALL temm them to STFU and quit whining like the losers they are.

    Agree completely, but it works both ways.

    Douglas Southall Freeman was by far the most detailed (I have his four volume work on Lee), but he is foremost of the "Lost Cause" historians, a tradition that began with General jubal Earley. clifford Dowdy also wrote a very detailed, flattering portrait, utilizing many records that Freeman never had. if you want the details, get Dowdy's and Freeman's books. but for analysis, they are biased in favor of Marse Robert.

    Burke Davis and Gary Gallagher (from UVa) have decent, objective short histories. I like Walter Taylor's overview the best, however. Some try to overcompensate Freeman's homerism with savage analyses that do not take conditions completely into account. Thomas Connolay's The marble Man was the tip of the revisionist spear, and while not untruthful, like you typical product by Howard Zinn or Noam Chomsky, was overtly critical, IMO. I do agree with Connally's analysis of Longstreet, however, and do believe the Lost Causes made him a scapegoat because he was a hated Republican. John Keegan and Alan Nolan took off from where Connally left with their books that attacked Lee's tactics and strategy. That is fair, except that throughout military history, armies tend to fight the next war with the tacts and strategy of the last, and Lee (or Grant, Sherman, Sheridan, etc) were no exceptions.

    It's rather hard to say, as there is no universally definitive bio of Lee, as there is of Stonewall Jackson, by Professor james I. (Bud) Robertson of Virginia Tech.
  14. bayou_gator
    Offline

    bayou_gator Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2013
    Messages:
    448
    Likes Received:
    46
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    Among the savages
    Ratings Received:
    +347
    War Chickens have absolutely no way to stop K. Benjamin at 6'5"/235 from scoring at will. Jameis is accurate and his receivers can go up and get it. Just facts. I despise the SOW to infinity.
  15. BigSlick
    Offline

    BigSlick Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2007
    Messages:
    3,430
    Likes Received:
    32
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +137
    You guys are drooling all over stats from a criminole team THAT PLAYED NO ONE ALL SEASON!!! They now have to play a real SEC team and will get stomped just like they got from Tenn., UF and Oklahoma championship games, that's the price criminoles pay for playing NO ONE!!!!!!
    • Like Like x 1
  16. Wormwood56
    Offline

    Wormwood56 VIP Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    5,344
    Likes Received:
    318
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,272
    Very true, but with a few exceptions, Auburn hasn't played a ton of strong offenses either.

    1. Washington State - 55th
    2. Arkansas State - 55th (mid-major)
    3. Mississippi State - 79th
    4. LSU - 21st
    5. Ole Miss - 58th
    6. Western Carolinia - not an FBS school
    7. Texas A&M - 5th
    8. Florida Atlantic - 78th (mid-major)
    9. Arkansas - 105th
    10. tennessee - 94th
    11. Georgia - 18th (overrated)
    12. Alabama - 16th
    13. Mizzou - 15th

    Against top 25 scoring offenses, Florida State allowed an average of 300 yards/game.
    Against top 25 scoring offenses, Auburn allowed an average of 523 yards/game.

    Against scoring offenses ranked 70th or worse, FSU allowed 237 yards/game.
    Against scoring offenses ranked 70th or worse, Auburn allowed 348 yards/game.

    Now unless you are going to try to slide the ol' "An 80th ranked SEC offense is as good as a 30th ranked ACC offense" nonsense without objective proof to support that, then we have to conclude that Auburn's defense sucks no matter who they play. That 89th ranked ain't going away. I will say that based on overall numbers that Auburn's defense is better than their numbers and FSU's defense is probably somewhat worse than their numbers, but the difference between 3d in the nation and 89th is rather large...
  17. Wormwood56
    Offline

    Wormwood56 VIP Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    5,344
    Likes Received:
    318
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,272
    Well, they DID get stomped by Florida. That much is certain...
  18. surfn1080
    Offline

    surfn1080 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2008
    Messages:
    1,115
    Likes Received:
    39
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +167
    I don't think anyone here is arguing that Auburn has a bad defense. People here are arguing that FSU has a great defense which I think is far from the truth.
  19. g8rvet
    Offline

    g8rvet Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2011
    Messages:
    706
    Likes Received:
    63
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Ratings Received:
    +243
    Unfair, you are making me defend people I do not agree with.

    Of course, but that means where n=1, the stats become less meaningful. Both ways. In that case, other factors must be considered. Past results do not guarantee future performance and such.

    And, if you list Freeman as the best hagiographer and Connolay as the best revisionist, you pass with an A+. For the record, I am no historian, but my southern roots made me love Freeman-not only for the portrait, but for his writing style. Curiously, I had just read it (the abridged) and started reading a biography of Chesty Puller and his favorite book was Freeman's Lee.
  20. g8rvet
    Offline

    g8rvet Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2011
    Messages:
    706
    Likes Received:
    63
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Ratings Received:
    +243
    True dat.
    I also question how great their offense really is as well (FSu's). Good yes, even very good, but not convinced they are the best in the country.

Share This Page