Auburn will steamroll the noles

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by algator27, Dec 27, 2013.

  1. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Same argument applies. Indeed, it should be even MORE applicable being that the ACC is tougher now than it was then.

    Hardened? LOL! That is a fatuous argument that is applicable only part of the time. FSU wasn't hardened by their 1990s schedules, yet they beat Florida more times than not. The usual excuse for this was either (a) FSU only had to play two real games per year( patently false) or (b) Spurrier was focused on the SECCG and didn't care about the FSU game (patently absurd).
  2. Wormwood56
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    I didn't say that. As for the stats, I already did that. The SEC team had the more favorable stats in most of those seasons. The one season that stuck out was the 2010 season, where Oregon had the slightly better offensive stats and considerably better defensive stats, yet lost by a FG to Auburn.

    Auburn has a chance to do this again, and they can indeed do so, but there has never been such a discrepancy between the total defenses while having similar offenses since 2000. No team won a MNC with an 89th ranked defense. Auburn can do that, and the best way to do that is to run the ball, eat the clock, don't cough the ball up, and keep FSU's offense off the field.
  3. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Perhaps the Nole fans at the Hooters in Tally say this nonsense, but I the next time I read that the ACC is a dynasty conference from a Nole fan, or any other fan of an ACC team, on a message board, will be the first time. Most Nole fans want to leave the ACC, as do Clemson and VT fans.
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  4. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I haven't heard anything about an ACC dynasty.
  5. AndyGator
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    AndyGator Well-Known Member

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    Wormwood is a Nole homer. No need to get too worked up about his comments.
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  6. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    1. SEC in the oughts was/is significantly tougher than the SEC of the 90's--which is what his post was directed to (don't give half a damn about the ACC);

    2. FSU wasn't 'tough' in the 90's--they were dirty as hell. Mickey Andrews taught his players to play like thugs, and St. Bobby's charm disarmed the refs--let them get away with a lot;

    3. Spurrier's Fun n' Gun philosophy was more about avoiding contact, than prevailing by it (i.e.--get the ball where they ain't, more than punch 'em in the nose...). 'Tough' wasn't exactly the hallmark of Spurrier's Gator teams in the 90's--so again, redirecting the discussion to 90's FSU/UF simply misses the point;

    4. I don't think I'm taking anything away from FSU, or disrespecting them. They had a wonderful year. They put up fantastic numbers. They deserve to be in the BCSNC game. But until they best the SEC champ--until any team bests the SEC Champ--which has proven to be superior to the best the nation has thrown at them for 7 years running (ok, the Champ did lose, but to SEC team)--seems to me that the default should be SEC Champ, until proven otherwise.

    I'll concede that other than '06 and '10 (coincidentally, also AU as this year) the expectation is that the SEC Champ will not demolish the next best non-SEC opponent. But until I see any non-SEC team take down the SEC Champ, I believe in the SEC Champ--and the system that yields that Champ.
  7. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    That's kind of dismissive. I see a lot of irrational anti-FSU stuff here that has no real basis in reality and he seems to provide a counterbalance there.
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  8. manigordo
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    manigordo Well-Known Member

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    I am pulling for Auburn, but as the game approaches I think advantage FSU. Other teams only have a week to prepare for Auburn's offense.. FSU has real talent on defense and a month to prepare. They may not have a "battle hardened" team, but that does not mean they do not have sufficient talent on both sides of the ball. They are Uber- talented. I would argue that they are far more talented than Auburn on Defense and that they score on Auburn enough to win.
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  9. diehardgator1
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    diehardgator1 Well-Known Member

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    Lord please let it happen. My daughter, Son in Law and two of my Grand children or Nole fans. The youngest 13 yr old is a big Gator Fan If FSU wins we will never hear the end of it. Go War Eagles
  10. Wormwood56
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    Not completely sure the SEC is tougher today. Please show me how, from top to bottom, not just the top three teams (we have more teams now than we had in 1992).

    Gee, how did I miss THIS excuse? lol

    When people talk about "punching teams in the mouth," they aren't just talking about the offense. They also play defense. Florida had to play the Mighty "Gauntlet," in the 1990s as well, which is why they had such a tougher road than FSU who (allegedly) played only two good teams a year, so presumably they rested all their stars for those two games only. I've been here in the 1990s and know all the arguments.

    Why? Because of history? Personally, I think the best team in the SEC is still Alabama, and if FSU played the Tide, I'd pick Alabama to win. Auburn, OTOH, was extremely fortunate throughout the year and got very lucky to beat Bama. My opinion. Heck, I'd pick USCe to beat Auburn.

    Only in 2010 did the non-SEC team have better overall numbers. In 2006, we had the better defense and offense (Florida's 19th total offense to OSU's 26th, and Florida's 6th total defense to OSU's 12th). The reason why OSU was expected to demolish us was because of the year-long media saturation that proclaimed OSU among the greatest teams of all time. The numbers didn't support that, however, which is why Phil Steele was among the few to pick Florida to win, rather than drink the Conventional Wisdom kool-aid, as the rest of the media did.
  11. DoctorGator
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    DoctorGator Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, 92. Worm is consistent in his gigging of the Gators and, as he says, "SEC superiority." What folks need to realize is that Worm is a fan that is double-minded. He likes the Gators, but he also likes VPI. So anything that he perceives as a put-down of the acc will elicit that kind of response, even if he has to resort to posting things totally irrelevant to what has his panties in a wad. Just as you pointed out..... my post was regarding "the SEC vs. the rest of the country since 2006." He comes back with some crap about "UF vs. fsu in the 1990s". He does this ALL THE TIME. In fact, he does little else on here.
  12. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    I've been a Gator fan for nearly a half century and a Gator since I graduated from Florida in 1982. This is the usual response from those who cannot debate the point. I've seen it on these boards since the 1990s. My response to these types of posts is usually "the defense rests."
  13. Wormwood56
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    Gee, doc, you got me all figgered out...ROTFLMAO! Can I ignorantly pigeonhole you as well?

    If a team is "hardened," as you say, it should not simply apply to the SEC since 2006. After all, that was the thesis of your post. I simply refuted it by saying that if the "hardened" team has the advantage, then why did florida lose so often to FSU in the 1990s? After all, they had a "cupcake" schedule while we faced the mighty SEC "gauntlet." By your definition, Florida SHOULD have been the better team because they were FAR more battle-tested than the Noles. What you call "crap" is nothing more than empirical data. Are you REALLY a doctor, or do you just play one on a message board? A real physician would presumably be more mature...

    When I see the usual drivel about how weak the ACC is, it has little to do with Virginia Tech, who has only been in the conference for a decade. It has more to do with the arrogance you and many other SEC-homers have about a superiority that doesn't substantially exist, except at the very top levels. I've proven it with facts and data; you offer anecdotal information to counter.

    If you and the other SEC honks want to beat your chests over the SEC Champ being the best in the nation, I'm with ya all the way. The last seven years clearly demonstrated that. But the fact is that there isn't nearly as much difference between the SEC and the ACC from about the third best team to bottom. We all go after pretty much the same players. WE sucked this year in the SEC, and would have sucked in the ACC as well.

    As an 1980s Gator, I simply cannot comprehend why Florida fans, of ALL people, should be SEC honks. The SEC always sneered at Florida as a northern school in a southern region, filled with transplanted Yankees rather than southern boys.

    And for clarification, I do like Virginia Tech, and have a few connections with the university, but I am a Gator. Blood is thicker than water.
  14. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Worm - good point on the SEC's treatment of us. The conference pride thing is bittersweet at best given that history.

    WRT FSU in the 90s, I think there were multiple factors involved - in order of importance... (1) FSU was damned good, (2) we were often beaten up (as opposed to "hardened") at the end of the SEC schedule, and (3) SOS put more emphasis on the SEC Championship than the FSU match up.

    I do think there is a case for teams being "hardened" against tougher competition, as long as they are healthy enough for the hardened players to actually play. The team's health plays a big role.

    With the bowl games, there is also the case of which coaching staff is best at managing the layoff and getting their team ready to play the bowl game.
  15. DoctorGator
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    DoctorGator Well-Known Member

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    I'm a '60s and beyond Gator. Spurrier was my hero - as a QB. Graduated from UF the same year as you. How 'bout that?

    As I've told you on numerous posts before, I don't disagree with anything that you ever say about how the SEC has treated UF through the years. In fact, I have about a 2-page history on that subject that I post from time to time. It's absolutely shameful. Within the conference, I pull for all the new teams, plus Miss. State first, simply because Miss. State was the only school that stood by us in 1984. AU and UA "voted" for us, but then their coaches, Perkins and Dye both went on a rampage, railing against the criminals in Gainesville. So screw 'em.

    However, at the present time, the SEC being the top dog is good for Florida. Period. It helps Florida. And I am for anything that helps Florida. If it ever ceases to help Florida, I will cease pulling for SEC teams in OOC games.
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  16. Lawdog88
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    This is why we take this position. SEC.
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2013
  17. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    I'd love to read it. Post it again sometime. As an aside, Alabama and Ole Miss (I think) also stuck by us. Alabama for sure, as Charley was one of theirs. Where else did he learn how to do that? From the Master Himself...

    I think this is where we differ. I honestly (and respectfully) don't see how the SEC helps us, unless perhaps it is national exposure for top recruits. But I wonder if that is a myth. Being in the SEC doesn't appreciably help other teams with recruiting, and teams like Clemson and FSU (among many others) don't appear to be hurt in recruiting by being in the ACC. Look at the rankings over the years:

    Year-----------Florida---------FSU---------------------USCe--------Clemson

    2002..................20th/3.22..........4th/4.09.........................11th/3.42..........22nd/3.04
    2003....................2nd/3.65.........21st/3.53............................8th/3.30.........57th/2.82
    2004....................7th/3.52...........3rd/3.59..........................35th/2.61.........53rd/2.38
    2005..................15th/3.39...........2nd/3.82..........................23rd/2.96.........17th/3.08
    2006....................2nd/3.89...........3rd/3.68..........................24th/3.08.........15th/3.40
    2007....................1st/3.89...........19th/3.25............................6th/3.42..........21st/3.18
    2008....................3rd/3.82............9th/3.33..........................22nd/3.18.........12th/3.42
    2009..................11th/3.94............7th/3.62...........................12th/3.34..........37th/3.50
    2010....................2nd/3.89..........10th/3.50..........................25th/3.04..........18th/3.35
    2011...................12th/3.58............2nd/3.55..........................18th/3.25.............8th/3.34
    2012.....................3rd/3.70............6th/3.79..........................19th/3.24...........14th/3.36
    2013.....................4th/3.67............9th/3.57..........................16th/3.38............14th/3.30

    Average...........7th/3.77........8th/3.61....................18th/3.19.......24th/3.18

    It doesn't seem that the SEC gives a team a recruiting advantage. Success, recruiting grounds, and great recruiters tends to breed great recruiting. I really don't think that if Florida and USCe went to the ACC, their recruiting would drop any more than if FSU and Clemson went to the SEC, their recruiting would correspondingly rise.

    That said, I respect your reasoning for supporting the SEC, even if I don't really agree with it. It has far more substance than the usual chest-beating means for fans to feel better about themselves by rooting vicariously through others.
  18. Wormwood56
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    Oak, I looked at the injury reports back in the 1990s and didn't see an appreciable difference in the relative health of the two teams. 1996 is certainly the exception, however. As for the SOS thing, well, that was an excuse we liked to use. He certainly enjoys beating Clemson, as he did Georgia back in the day (and even now).

    Looking at the schedules and the three games prior to FSU and Florida:

    Year--Florida------------------------------------------------FSU

    1992.....S. Miss (7-4 mm), USCe (5-6), Vandy (4-7)..............UVa (7-4), MD (3-8), Tulane (2-9 mm)
    1993.....La-Lafay (8-3 mm), USCe (4-7), Vandy (4-7)...........MD (2-9), ND (11-1), NC St (7-5)
    1994.....S. Miss (6-5 mm), USCe (7-5), Vandy (5-6)...............GT (1-10), ND (6-5-1), NC St (9-3)
    1995.....N. Ill (3-8 mm), USCe (4-6-1), Vandy (2-9)...............UVa (9-4), UNC (7-5), MD (6-5)
    1996.....UGa (5-6), Vandy (2-9), USCe (6-5)............................WF (3-8), S. Miss (8-3 mm), MD 5-6
    1997.....UGa (10-2), Vandy (3-8), USCe (5-6)..........................NC State (6-5), UNC (11-1), WF (5-6)
    1998.....UGa (9-3), Vandy (2-9), USCe (1-10)..........................UNC (7-5), UVa (9-3), WF (3-8)
    1999.....UGa (8-4), Vandy (5-6), USCe (0-11)..........................Clemson (6-6), UVa (7-5), MD (5-6)
    2000....UGa (8-4), Vandy (3-8), USCe (8-4)............................NC St (8-4), Clemson (9-3), WF (2-9)

    Changing the W/L records downward for mid-major teams by an arbitrary two games:

    School------------W/L Record of Opponents

    Florida........................126-176-1 (.417)
    Fla State......................160-150-1 (.516)

    FSU's previous three opponents were substantially better than Florida's. if we go back:

    Four Games:

    Florida........................188-219-1 (.462)
    Fla State.....................216-197-1 (.523)

    Five Games:

    Florida........................251-258-2 (.492)
    Fla State.....................265-254-1 (.515)

    Six Games

    Florida........................305-306-4 (.498)
    Fla State.....................337-287-1 (.540) (Miami was the usual opponent)

    Tennessee was usually the third game of the season for the Gators, so they never factored in, while teams such as Georgia, LSU and Auburn alternated great seasons with poor ones. None were consistently good throughout the decade.
  19. g8rvet
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    What was the combined offensive and defensive rankings of each teams opponents? ie What was the level of competition that each team accrued their defensive and offensive stats against? Certain stats are meaningless in a vacuum and I concede that the SEC is not as crazy better than the rest of the country from top to bottom as many folks maintain. I would quote Mark Twain, but as a stat lover, I am quite sure you already know the quote. I don't disagree, that on paper, FSu should be favored (as they are). I just think that when the metal hits the meat, FSu is gonna be surprised by the manliness of the "finesse" or "gimmicky" offense of Auburn. I could be wrong, Lord knows I have been before. I posted my prediction of the game somewhere on here. It is half prediction and half hope, but I do not think it is out of the realm of possibility.

    Forgetting stats, I assume you watch the games. Do you think FSu has faced a team with the ability to run the ball that Auburn has?
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  20. g8rvet
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    That seems to make your point for you. However, the only way to know if it does would be to go back and look at the quality of wins vs quality of losses of each of the teams. I don't have the time or the inclination to do that, but it would actually make the stats more meaningful. It is not like they all played each other. Was the 8-4 UGA team better than or worse than the 9-3 Clemson team in 2000 (I do not know, I am asking). Was the 99 Vandy team better than the 99 MD team? You quote a lot of stats that "prove" your points to you, but are not as ironclad as you seem to believe. If they did, you would be the best NCAA football handicapper in Vegas and would not be giving this info away free. I am not trying to start a pizzing match, just saying that sometimes, your stats don't pass the eye test and please don't quote me a mess of stats about the above, it is an example, not a stat war. Please don't waste your time, I am making a general point, not a specific one that you are referencing. (Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes? Groucho Marx) ;)

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