Auburn will steamroll the noles

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by algator27, Dec 27, 2013.

  1. algator27
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    algator27 New Member

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    The closer we get to this game, and the more I take a look at how these teams match up, the more I LOVE Auburn. I really think they will win convincingly. In an absolutely atrocious and forgettable gator season, January 6th will be a great ending. It will be a very satisfying night for Gator Nation.
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  2. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    I hope so.

    More than anything.

    But I don't see it. FSU plays defense. Auburn won 6 games by fewer than 10 points and lost one, FSU won them all by 14.

    But if I'm wrong, it will kick my 2014 off on the right note.
  3. Tito22
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    Tito22 Premium Member

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    I sure hope so. Just lock up Benjamin and pressure Winston. The rest will take care of it self
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  4. gatordavisl
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    gatordavisl Well-Known Member

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    I'm in the "hope so" camp. Don't see how anyone can "love Auburn" in this game, with F$U an 8.5 point fave. The only reason I have to believe in Auburn is that they appear to be a team of destiny.
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  5. gtj31
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    gtj31 Well-Known Member

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    I don't see it. The highest rated D traditionally wins the MNC and AU's D just isn't good enough. In addition, AU's O is gimmicky to me and I expect the SWAC to be very prepared for AU.

    If this game was played the week after the championship games, I could see AU winning. In this scenario, I think the SWAC wins by 10.
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  6. ufrc86
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    ufrc86 Active Member

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    I would like to be optimistic but just don't see it. Noles will get their points and have enough defense to slow down Auburn. I think 34-24.
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  7. AlfaGator
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    AlfaGator Well-Known Member

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    The Aubie pass D is not very good and that worries me. Franklin threw on them pretty well and FSU's passing game is better.

    But, when the Aubie finally blitzed Franklin they shut Mizzy down. And that is my ray of hope.

    ROLL TIGER ROLL!
  8. Claygator
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    Claygator Well-Known Member

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    Auburn has to get to Winston, or he is going to torch Auburn's secondary. Both UGA and Bama lit Auburn's secondary up, especially Murray. Auburn has to run the ball well, keep the Nole offense on the bench, and get to Winston. Otherwise, I think the Nole passing game will be too much for them.
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  9. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    I like Aubie as u'dog. I'd be much more concerned if they were favored. U'dogs tend to play the 'disrespected' angle up, while favorites tend to come in a bit on the complacent side. Sure there are exceptions to every rule, but with these 2 teams, FSU--who thinks their sh*t don't stink-- is notorious for coming in with their scrotum slung over their shoulders like they're 'God's gift....', and promptly getting embarrassed. Meanwhile AU has a history of being overlooked, disrespected, written off as fluke...and then going on to break teams' hearts (God knows they've broken ours countless times...). Perhaps not the most compelling angle, but certainly better than if the opposite were the case.

    Here's hoping history holds true.

    War-damn-Eagle!
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  10. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    lol @ "just lock up Benjamin."

    I honestly think he's more responsible for their offensive success than Winston.
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  11. Tito22
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    Tito22 Premium Member

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    He is. I think Jameis slumps next year when he is gone.
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  12. Lawdog88
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    I wish the Tallahassee Police Department had thought of that.
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  13. Brodeur
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    Brodeur Active Member

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    I'm in this camp. I'd rather bet on a balanced offense after such a long layoff than a gimmicky one. The only advantage I see Auburn having is FSU's schedule may not have them well prepared for a slugfest if Auburn can give them one.
  14. GatorLaw
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    GatorLaw Well-Known Member

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    My heart says Auburn but my head says FSU. I think FSU will win, I don't even expect a very close game. When one team's strength (FSU offense) goes against the other team's weakness (Auburn D) strength usually wins. The only way I see anyone beating FSU this year is a team with a great defense, especially a team that can keep constant pressure on Winston without a lot of blitzing. I haven't followed Auburn that closely but I don't think they're that team.
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  15. g8rvet
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    g8rvet Active Member

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    I don't see Auburn's offense as gimmicky at all. It is just a read offense. It relies on reading the way the defense is reacting and takes a certain skill set to run it well. They have that skill set in their players. It is a strong run offense with a lot of strength at the point of attack, both in blocking and running. These are not undersized lineman using a veer offense to trick defenders into the wrong lanes. It is smash mouth football, with a twist. FSu has seen nothing like it this year, but does have a month to prepare.

    I also recall FSu had the third ranked D last year before our game. All the talking heads talked about how strong they were. I don't think this year's team has really played any better of defenses. They rely heavily on passes thrown into double or tight coverage and Benjamin just comes down with the ball. Many of them not particularly well thrown. Benjamin is just that good this year. If he has a bad game or is injured, they are less scary.

    I don't doubt that FSu's passing game is superior to AU's pass defense, but I think it is less inferior than AU's run game to FSu's rush defense. And long scoring drives on the ground are clock killers and serve to demotivate a team's defense (like I think they did vs Bama). I read where people talk about the AU-Bama game as if it was a fluke win (which I DO think the UGA game was), but had that game gone to OT, I think AU still had the edge due to their run game.

    With all this being said, if FSu comes out quickly (which they have not done against even decent defenses) then it would be over early. But AU will eat the clock and score points. I pick AU by 6 points.
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  16. Jonas
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    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    My issue with hurry-up offenses is that they tend to simply things so they can run it really fast. Problem is with a month of prep, opposing defenses can learn to defend it just as fast. It's why I think we were able to shut down OU so much back in the 2008 NC. I still think Auburn's offense will score points, but it will probably be in more of the 20-30 range.

    FSU has a great passing offense, and Auburn's pass defense isn't worth shit. So I think FSU will easily put up more than 30 points.

    I hate to admit it, but from a talent perspective, FSU is similar to other SEC teams. The only disadvantage I can think of is that FSU hasn't really been tested, but I don't think that will be enough.
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  17. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    ^^^concur, and excellent post.

    AU is not being 'gimmicky'. Bama's defense didn't just coincidentally suck one night. Bama did not look past AU. Anyone suggesting that Bama 'looked past' the Iron Bowl, doesn't understand what that game means to their state. Bama's D. played what they saw well; problem is, what they saw didn't betray what followed. It's called 'misdirection', not 'gimmickery', or 'trickeration' or such.

    IMO, the only way FSU stops AU, is if they can pick up on some latent 'tells' as to which way the plays are going before they go, and AU doesn't realize these 'tells' are detectable (and fails to adapt during the game).

    IMO, this game will be a shoot-out, and therefore the winner will be the team that 'held serve' more (and maybe got a couple of big plays or breaks on D/ST). I know...stating the obvious....pardon...

    I'm frankly expecting a great game. Lot's of points from both sides, and a suspenseful finish.

    I'm just not seeing a lopsided affair at all, either way (and certainly not a low scoring affair, by any stretch).
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  18. ACCecil
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    ACCecil Well-Known Member

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    I'm worried but then again I've been worried every week. Duke hung around for a quarter and a half. The Noles have rolled people but it takes time to get going and if a team hangs around they are dangerous.

    The thing that scares me the most about Aub is their running game, obviously, but not so much the running game itself it is the pace they run their offense at. They can really confuse people.

    A bunch of message board experts are going to analyze this game and discuss "gap control" and what not, and that is fine, but I think, on top of that, the Noles have to tackle well. They have all year. And even if you do Aub will move the ball but hopefully not in big chunks of yards.

    I'd sure like to see Aub's QB throw the ball and I don't mean play action, I mean out of desperation. That would be nice but I am pretty sure Aub will stick to their main mode of transportation and FSU had better be ready. I see this game as going well into the 4th quarter still in doubt. I expect Winston to start slow again. FSU has the ability to come from behind to win, I'm not sure Aub can fall too far behind and come back and win although if FSU gets ahead I have no doubt Aub will make a run to get it close.

    It should be quite a match up. I have tremendous respect, and fear, of any SEC team that is 12-1.
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  19. atlantagator86
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    atlantagator86 Well-Known Member

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    I think this will be an interesting match-up. On paper, this would look like a complete mismatch.

    FSU has a very balanced offense that really nobody has been able to stop. Believe it or not, UF's defense was the ONLY defense to hold them under 40 points all season. And on the other side of the ball, Auburn has a pretty weak defense, especially for the SEC.

    And then you have FSU's defense, which is the best in the country (albeit in the weak ACC). But only once all season, have they given up more than 17 points. FSU has only given up 200+ rushing yards to BC, and held almost half their opponents, including UMD, Pitt, UF, Miami, Idaho and Duke under 100 total yards rushing. And that matches up with a very one-dimensional Auburn offense. While nobody has been able to stop Auburn's running game, they haven't played many defenses with the speed of FSU.

    So on paper, I really don't like Auburn's chances, but ...

    There are 4 factors I see that may make a difference:

    1 - FSU hasn't faced adversity all season. Other than maybe the BC game (which is a stretch), they haven't had to find a way to win all season. Auburn has faced adversity and had to find ways to win. Obviously the Bama game, but also the miracle Hail Mary pass against UGA, the sack of Manziel with 11 seconds left to beat Texas A&M inCollege Station, and the TD pass to beat MSU with 10 seconds left. I really think that experience may come into play.

    2 - Winston winning the Heisman may be a distraction. It doesn't seem to be as big a deal as it was 10 years ago, but there are still a lot of events that take away from preparation time and focus, and while Winston comes off in the media as a team guy, I think deep down he's more of a me guy than a team guy. I may be wrong about that but his demeanor reminds me a lot of Cam Newton.

    3 - FSU may be somewhat overconfident and since they haven't faced adversity all season, you have to wonder how well the coaches and players will be able to adjust if Auburn hits them in the mouth early.

    4 - While FSU looks like the the most dominant team in college football this year, Auburn seems to have that magic or maybe be that team of destiny.

    We'll see how it plays out. I expect it to be a very fast paced game where the offenses move up and down the field and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see 100+ points scored in this game. In the end, I'm afraid FSU just won't be able to do anything to stop FSU's offense. One or two mistakes and FSU may build an insurmountable lead Auburn just can't recover from.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2013
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  20. coach
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    I think Auburn will run and score at will. Defensively I don't think they can do much against FSU's passing attack. But they should be able to dial up some blitzes to get enough 3rd down stops to outscore the holes.
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