Actual Obamacare stats and rate increases on horizon

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by gatordowneast, May 15, 2014.

  1. gatordowneast
    Offline

    gatordowneast Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    11,748
    Likes Received:
    303
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +985
    Several points made in article. Make sure you pay attention to point #5...open enrollment delayed until November 15th after the mid term elections. Just another example of this administration lying and tricking the electorate. Hope and Change baby. FORWARD!

    1. The main point of Obamacare was to provide insurance to the uninsured, but the “enrollment” numbers showed that precious few of those actually gained coverage. The White House announcement of 8 million enrollees turned out to be more like 6.65 million when discounting those who hadn’t paid their first premium, just barely above the estimated 5-6 million who lost their existing plans after the coverage mandates were imposed.

    2. The numbers get worse when looking at how many of these enrollees were previously uninsured. Earlier estimates put that number at around a third, but a new study from the McKinsey Center for US Health System Reform pegs the number lower at 26 percent. When filtering out those who have paid their premium, the number drops to 22 percent of the administration’s claimed enrollees, or about 1.7 million people.

    3. Most of the individual-market enrollments were simply churn created by the market disruption of Obamacare itself. Those enrollments barely made a dent in the claimed numbers of the uninsured, estimates of which range between 30-40 million.

    4. In Virginia, two insurers control 86 percent of the market, and both propose steep increases in 2015 premiums. Anthem wants to boost prices by an average of 8.5 percent next year, while CareFirst wants a hike of 14.9 percent. All five insurers in the Virginia exchange want price hikes, with only Kaiser’s proposal falling below an 8.5 percent increase. If the Obamacare experience in these two states provides any indication, Wu writes, “then consumers might need to brace themselves for rate hikes in the coming months.”

    So much for bending the cost curve downward.

    5. As Forbes’ Avik Roy argued at the time, it meant that the churn in the individual market provided just an appetizer to the main course of market disruption that will come this fall. The White House has been attempting to avoid its consequences ever since. They have delayed the implementation of the employer mandate for businesses with fewer than 200 employees until 2016, and pushed open enrollment this fall for 2015 until mid-November – well after the midterm elections.

    6. Over $5 Billion and Counting for Obamacare Websites

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-increases-obamacare-premiums-deductibles-100000679.html
    • Informative Informative x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  2. gatorbronco
    Offline

    gatorbronco Member

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2008
    Messages:
    618
    Likes Received:
    10
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Jacksonville, Mcall, Idaho
    Ratings Received:
    +39
    From the Florida Times Union, editorial page, Jacksonville:

    Health tidbits: Cost remains big challenge with health care
    Wed, May 14, 2014 @ 11:09 am


    The death spiral is the biggest danger to national health care.



    It involves too many sick people making too many claims without enough healthy people paying premiums to make up the difference.

    Now the political tendency is to make people think they can have their cake and eat it, too.

    So changes need to be made in the Affordable Care Act before its finances crumble and fall.

    The big question now is what rates insurers will institute next year based on the sketchy results of the first year.

    WellPoint, the biggest carrier in the exchanges, is talking about double-digit increases in 2015.

    “If the health plans do issue double-digit rate increases for 2015, Obamacare is finished,” health industry expert Bob Laszewski wrote on his Health Care Reform blog.

    Kaiser Health News reported that while the extent of the increases vary, no health insurer is talking about decreases.
    • Informative Informative x 2
  3. gatordowneast
    Offline

    gatordowneast Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    11,748
    Likes Received:
    303
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +985
    When Guvmint decides to intervene, it is similar to an IRS agent showing up claiming he's here to "help".
    • Winner Winner x 3
  4. dirigo
    Offline

    dirigo Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +23
    All that Morrisey has written could come to pass but forgive me if I see this as just another iteration of the far right's "wishin' and hopin'" that somehow, some way the ACA will fail. Morrisey has fit that mold for years (Heritage Foundation; Michelle Malkin blogger; etc). You guys need to wake up and smell the coffee. If the pubs don't like the ACA then propose an alternative. My God, it's been 5 years that the pubs promised/threatened to do just that and we're still waiting.
    • Boring Boring x 1
  5. gator7_5
    Offline

    gator7_5 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2007
    Messages:
    12,502
    Likes Received:
    180
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +622
    It's simple math. I mean really simple.
    • Agree Agree x 2
  6. surfn1080
    Offline

    surfn1080 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2008
    Messages:
    1,085
    Likes Received:
    37
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +144
    Fred i will save you the time:

    But Bush started two unfunded wars like 10 years ago!!
    • Funny Funny x 2
  7. dirigo
    Offline

    dirigo Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +23
    I'm reminded of that old saying, "figures don't lie but liars figure". I'm not saying Morrissey is a liar but so many of the things he's predicted have not come to pass that I'll wait to see what a more neutral columnist reports. It could all unfold just as he described but if so that would be,"one in a row" for Morrissey.
  8. mdgator05
    Online

    mdgator05 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2010
    Messages:
    6,288
    Likes Received:
    120
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +453
    Could you please find working links to any of the claims in 1-5?

    There are some major issues with the math and the theory in points 1 and 2. First, the McKinsey study you cited said that 87% of people had paid their first premium. Even if we assumed nobody else will, that would be 6.96 million, not 6.65 million.

    The issue with your second number is that it ignores natural churn. So some uninsured people got jobs with insurance and some insured people lost their jobs and thus lost insurance. So your statistics ignore a whole group of people that would have been without insurance, but instead were able to remain insured as they would be listed as "previously insured." If the churn continues in one direction (ie. people without insurance getting jobs and getting insurance) and lowers in the other direction, the overall effect is substantial increases in the number of insured people.

    That is one of two ways in which the uninsured rate has fallen by approximately 9 million people as a point estimate with a distribution of +- about 2.5 million.
  9. gator7_5
    Offline

    gator7_5 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2007
    Messages:
    12,502
    Likes Received:
    180
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +622
    I'm sorry. I was referring to the smack you in the face, 1+1=2 type math problems that are extremely obvious with Obamacare.

    If all of the sick people rush to get covered and very few healthy people do. Rates = Skyrocket. First grade simple math

    If your coverage is expanded and requires you to pay for many additional aspects of insurance (such as breast pumps) that won't be needed. Rates = Skyrocket. Kindergarten type math


    That's the stuff I'm talking about. Only in Obama's world does 1+1= limitless supply of taxpayers money, and only in his world can you get 5 bucks out of a nickel.
  10. AzCatFan
    Offline

    AzCatFan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2007
    Messages:
    7,495
    Likes Received:
    187
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +513
    The problem with this math is the fact that rates have been skyrocketing for decades as the number of uninsured as swelled. That's because, in the end, we still cover the treatment for the uninsured and sick, while the increase in premiums price more people from getting insurance every year. So if we insure more while not suffering larger increases than before, is that not at least a partial win?
  11. g8orbill
    Offline

    g8orbill Gators VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    67,996
    Likes Received:
    3,957
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Clermont, Fl
    Ratings Received:
    +7,803
    I will never understand you libs and your dependence upon the guvment
    • Agree Agree x 2
  12. dirigo
    Offline

    dirigo Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +23
    Az don't waste your time with 7-5. He so desperately wants to see the ACA fail that he'll seize on anything that might give him hope. Think Rove/election night/Ohio.
  13. dirigo
    Offline

    dirigo Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +23
    Bill, if the ACA followed what they have in the UK or even Canada I'd better understand your concern. However the main role of the ACA is to require (1) the insurers to sell policies to those who want but are being denied coverage and (2) the freeloaders to buy basic coverage. If you're against Medicaid and its expansion then state it but the rest of the Act rests squarely upon the for-profit insurance industry.
  14. malligator
    Offline

    malligator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    3,230
    Likes Received:
    66
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Ahwatukee
    Ratings Received:
    +265
    And the government wants so desperately for it to work that they have become like folks that live beyond their means, but get by with "creative financing"...buy groceries with this credit card, pay this bill with this credit card, call this creditor and explain the check is in the mail when it isn't, forget to sign the check so this creditor can't deposit the check, delay this payment until next payday since it won't show up as late on their credit report, open a new credit card to start the process all over again next month.

    If Obama had implemented the bill as written and (air quotes) passed (/air quotes) it'd already be dead.
    • Winner Winner x 2
  15. dirigo
    Offline

    dirigo Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +23
    "And if my aunt had ****s she'd be my uncle". We all realize how many of you hate this President and his signature piece of legislation. Politics is a messy, dirty exercise (think Daniel Day Lewis in "Lincoln" and his portrayal of all that had to done to pass the 13th Amendment). In 20 years historians will applaud the President for his pragmatism in overcoming the unending challenges to bringing the ACA to life. I expect you'll disagree.
  16. malligator
    Offline

    malligator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    3,230
    Likes Received:
    66
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Ahwatukee
    Ratings Received:
    +265
    I don't hate this President AND his signature piece of legislation. I hate this President BECAUSE of his signature piece of legislation. He got it passed by an 11th hour parliamentary procedural trick with ZERO votes from the other party. He didn't overcome challenges. He steamrolled it through voters/citizens/economy/future be damned.
    • Winner Winner x 2
  17. dirigo
    Offline

    dirigo Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +23
    I supported Hillary and until he selected Gov. Palin, Sen. McCain. Obama didn't have the experience required to manage the political infighting that exists in D.C. and unfortunately my concerns were spot on. However it is because of the ACA that I respect Obama. The fact that he had to pass the ACA w/out any pub votes was more due to the hand-to-hand political combat than the quality of the goal (after all it was crafted by the Heritage Foundation). The ugliness of the process was not dissimilar to that associated with the passage of the 13th Amendment, Social Security, the Civil Rights Act and Medicare. That's my opinion though I doubt that you share it. The reality was that our healthcare system was spiraling out of control at the same time that it represented the only "low hanging fruit" in so far as reining in federal (and more significantly state expenditures. Each year fewer and fewer citizens had insurance coverage and that meant that higher premiums for those that paid them and the unfunded costs passed on to the federal government. If you don't like the ACA then please describe with some detail what you want instead. If you want to just go back to what we had in 2010, just state it. Don't just sit on the sidelines and complain about what those on the field are trying to do to solve a major problem.
  18. RealGatorFan
    Offline

    RealGatorFan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    13,027
    Likes Received:
    99
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +432
    Who needs to hope? ACA is doin fine on its on. The question isn't if ACA fails, but when. I hate to say it but Hillary might see 2 healthcare defeats under her watch. By 2017, premiums will go up over 25% from where they are now. Worse, many companies are looking at getting rid of their own coverage because of the rising costs. Imagine if most companies did away with their plans. That's Obama's plan from the beginning and it's what we have been saying for 4 years here on this board. Obama wants to nationalize our healthcare system and flush it down the toilet. Medicare patients already feel it when their usual appts made in a day or 2 are now weeks and their doctor doing just the minimum. Our son's MRI on his leg took 3 months to schedule and another 6 weeks to get the results back. Almost every receptionist has told us that ACA has so much paperwork, that they don't have time to get back with patients - they actually wait until the patients call the office. My own HBP med ran out and it took 7 calls over a week to get it filled. All due to ACA. You want to see what ACA will end up like? Take a look at the VA. I've been saying that for as long as Obama talked about ACA that if the government can't handle something as tiny as the VA or Medicare, how in the world will it be able to handle ACA?
  19. dirigo
    Offline

    dirigo Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +23
    I take that you want to go back to what we had pre-ACA? A couple of thoughts about the VA and Medicare - by most standards is "tiny" (20M and 50M beneficiaries respectively) and both enjoy patient/beneficiary positive satisfaction ratings that are comparable or exceed most private pay insurance programs. I'm sorry for your families troubles but I question your conclusion as to the cause. Adding 8M patients to the existing pool of approx 260M doesn't, by itself trigger the problems you described.
    Last edited: May 15, 2014
  20. QGator2414
    Offline

    QGator2414 VIP Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2009
    Messages:
    12,509
    Likes Received:
    139
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Ocala
    Ratings Received:
    +483
    The crazy/scary thing is how people here are defending Obama and obamacare all because Obama says it is good.

    But in reality Obama's actions prove what a disaster is.

    Waiver anybody?

Share This Page