A cold Arctic summer has led to a record increase in the ice cap

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by mocgator, Sep 9, 2013.

  1. jimgata
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    jimgata Premium Member

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    How many years has sea ice been measured? Since satellites? Any measurement before that can't be too accurate. The few years ,as previoulsy mentioned, amounts to a pimple on an elephants ass. 20 years hardly amounts to any correct measurement of a cycle, when this earth has been around millions of years.
    Some posters say wait until the La Nina and El Nino cycle play out to determine the actual trend. Will those cycles of nina and nino just disappear after that or will they reappear?
  2. Emmitto
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    Emmitto VIP Member

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    1979. So it's 30+ years and a generally accepted minimum snapshot.

    But your point about short timeframes/massive inferences is taken. Which when you consider the genesis of this thread, is a real deathblow.

    This thread is about the incredible "gains" in Arctic sea ice this year and how that points to global cooling. So along with your contribution, we have determined:

    A) The only "gains" in sea ice are relative to last year's record low, which is the expected rebound from a record low. In actuality the overall trend is still down.
    B) After this year's "increase", arctic sea ice is the 6th lowest ever (since 1979.)
    C) Sea ice volume remains at a record low (no modest rebound this year, unlike extent.)
    D) If the 30+ year record of sea ice loss isn't enough to confidently proclaim a trend, then last year's "gains" aren't enough to confidently start a TH thread, much less proclaim an opposite trend.
  3. jimgata
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    jimgata Premium Member

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    Since 1990 there have been increases and decreases in the amount of sea ice. 2013 has as much sea ice as in 1990.
    Is 23 years enough time to think that sea ice melting is not the calamity that the warmers would lead one to believe?
  4. Swampmaster
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    Swampmaster New Member

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    Al Gore was spotted at REI recently, buying a big parka for the upcoming winter.
  5. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    Are you sure it wasn't Mink? Lol...
  6. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Unless we see subsequent years of increasing extents, the trend is pretty clear and strong. Sea ice extents since 1970 compared to 1981-2010 mean:

    [​IMG]
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  7. Emmitto
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    Emmitto VIP Member

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    Before we get to the timeframe, let's delve more into the 2013 sea ice equals 1990. I see it at around 5.1M square km currently, about 6.1M in 1990. For a brief period earlier in the year (May-June), they were close (and 2013 has never exceeded 1990 at any point) but the overwhelmingly majority of the time 2013 has been well below 1990. It's currently about halfway between last year's record low and 1990, with the gap between the two years in question increasing over the past few months.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

    I'd be interested to see the data you're using that suggests otherwise.

    And 23 years? Eh, I personally consider 30 to be the general minimum. But I won't discount shorter timeframes entirely, whether it's up or down. I'd just be more wary of the shorter one.
  8. jimgata
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    jimgata Premium Member

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    why 30?
    The national Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report that sea ice surrounding Antartica is 4 1/2 % higher than the average between 1981 and 2010 and is the highest since 1979.
  9. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    So, I will ask again. Absent man made causes, what has caused the climate to warm previously?

    Ask the "majority of climate scientists."
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  10. Emmitto
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    Emmitto VIP Member

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    This thread is about the Arctic. But the gains in the Antarctic don't offset the losses in the Arctic anyway. There is less sea ice total. From 1979 to 2008 the Antarctic has increased roughly 0.9% per decade. The Arctic has decreased 4.1% for the same time. When the raw numbers are included, it's a significant overall loss, about 1M square km or so.

    [​IMG]

    As for 30 years, I believe that climate is generally described in terms of average weather over at least that timeframe, by the World Meteorological Organization in order to smooth out year to year variances from known weather phenomena. I'm willing to accept that. But I'm not married to that number or anything.
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  11. Emmitto
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    Emmitto VIP Member

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    Well that's certainly a big graph. Sorry, I'lll try to fix it.

    EDIT: Fixed! Thanks in no small part to a certain poster who shall remain nameless, less he/she get "blamed" for it. Thanks, You-Know-Who.
  12. g8trjax
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    g8trjax Well-Known Member

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    I get my sea ice reports from deadliest catch. Last few years have been a bitch.
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  13. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    You seem to know the climate models better than anyone else, so I'd assume that you know what their answer is better than I do.

    But here is the link that I've given you the last couple of times that you've asked: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-1-1.html
  14. rpmGator
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    rpmGator Well-Known Member

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  15. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Dr Curry asks the questions very well

    and this addresses the Row/Rade contention of "Hey, most everybody believes it so it must be true!" meme

    http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/20/the-ipccs-inconvenient-truth/#more-13050
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  16. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    After all this time, I'm surprised by how much you misunderstand my "meme", as you call it. First off, I never believe in truth. A better wording of my position is probably "If you believe that the experts are misunderstanding something so simple as not looking for "natural variation", then why would you ever assume that you and other novices are incapable of such a mistake?"

    This is a question that I have never seen you or Curry address.
  17. candymanfromgc
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    candymanfromgc Well-Known Member

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    Rick, I have said the same thing to leftist before and well-they can't get past that they may not be right.
  18. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    All the Leftists care about is what their leaders tell them to think and say. They're parrots.
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  19. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    "All ___________ care about is __________. They're parrots"

    No irony there?
  20. Row6
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    Row6 New Member

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    China surpassed US carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 but we are still 2nd. On a per capita basis we emit far more than the Chinese and since it remains in the atmosphere for a very long time, the total present today is overwhelmingly due to us. on the good side the US and China signed an agreement this summer to work together to cut emissions.

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