8-4 Would Really Be Good

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by bbreece1, Dec 26, 2013.

  1. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    * In his third season, prior to the bowl game, Spurrier went 8-4. He went 9-3 in his 10th season.

    * In his 6th season, Urban Meyer went 7-5.

    In all three cases, however, the team lost 12 starters prior to the season. The 2014 team loses 8 (I think, at last count). I foresee a MINIMUM of 8-4, barring key injuries. anything worse, and I think Boom will be on the sidelines -- at Sanford Stadium as their DC, being a thorn in our butt.
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  2. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    If 8-4 is all he is capable of, then how did he go 11-1 in 2012, beating four ten-win teams in the process? Smoke and mirrors?
  3. gatorev12
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    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    How did he do it? We had a strong defense with several NFL-caliber talents on it that was able to execute the defensive schemes our NFL-caliber DC put on paper.

    Without that defense, there's no way we go 11-1. Our offense certainly wasn't carrying the team, as I would expect you to know.

    And, it must be said, as nice as that 11-2 season was; there were serious concerns even then about Muschamp. All our games were incredibly close (largely due to an inept offense); we showed a disturbing lack of focus and discipline in some of our biggest games (UGAy and the bowl game); and there didn't appear to be much (if any) player development--especially on the offensive side of the ball.
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  4. gator07
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    gator07 Well-Known Member

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    pretty much by riding the backs of someone else's players who are now in the nfl. How is your guy doing with his own players that he brought in and developed? (Which is all we will have moving forward)
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  5. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    How about we pull Muschamp out of the equation for a moment, and consider context for what an acceptable record is.

    Next year, depending on how things play out for our scheduled opponents, we'll play against four to five top 10 teams and seven top 25 teams, on a 12 game schedule. Nobody plays schedules like that.

    What is a reasonable expectation for any team against that kind of schedule?

    What is a reasonable expectation for a team that returns 14 starters (est), including a QB coming off a broken leg, who hasn't played a full season in his career, and with probably a true frosh as his backup?
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  6. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    OK, but I think there is more to it than that:

    Year-----------W/L----Total Off---Total Def---Pass Def---Pass Eff Def---Rush Def---Scoring Def

    2010..................8-5...............82d...............9th..............12th..................12th.................31st.................29th
    2011...................7-6............105th..............8th................7th..................28th................40th................20th
    2013...................4-8............113th..............8th................9th....................9th................34th................17th

    Average..............6-6............100th.............8th................9th.................16th..................35th................22d

    2012..................11-2............103d...............5th..............17th....................2d....................4th..................5th

    While we were able to shut down the pass in the red zone and stop the run better in 2012, our defense appeared to be strong all four years. As for NFL-caliber talents, Muschamp can have those again and repeat the season he had in 2012, dontcha think? I seriously doubt his peak is 8-5 when he did so much better than that. He went 11-1 in the 2012 regular season. Who would have done better besides Saban?

    There are many teams that would not have great records if they had to depend on their offense to win them. Florida wasn't unique. And we had poor offenses and great defenses all four years. You want the answer?

    Year-----------Turnovers Gained---Turnovers Lost---Turnover Margin----National Rank

    2010...........................29.........................................27..................................+2........................47th
    2011............................14.........................................26.................................-12.......................113th
    2012............................30.........................................15.................................+10..........................7th
    2013............................18..........................................20...................................-2........................73d

    I certainly agree with you in principle, but how was that different from 2010 or 2005? Even 2006, many of our games were incredibly close, and player development was sketchy at best. You were here in 2006. Remember all the whining about how poorly the offense was developing, and that Mullen doesn't know how to develop players, tinkering with different formations, etc? And that was a team with a FAR, FAR better quarterback than any QB Muschamp had at Florida.

    My point is when a coach, regardless who it is, doesn't have all the pieces in place, with gaping holes on one or both sides of the ball, that team will struggle. Remember the howling in 1998 and especially in 1999, when Doug Johnson and a hurt Jesse Palmer were struggling? We had several close game that year, including lackluster games to Vandy and USCe (who combined for a 5-17 record), topping it off with home loss to FSU, a beatdown in Atlanta, and a close loss to Michigan State and Plaxico Burress? Spurrier's offensive machine wasn't working on all cylinders, either.

    Even in 2012, Muschamp didn;t have all the pieces in place.

    Meyer had the horses in 2005 and 2006, but he insisted on taking the SEC's top passing quarterback and making him a spread QB. If not for our defenses both years, we would have fared FAR worse than we did. Heck, in 2007, we went 9-4 with the Heisman Trophy winner on offense. You may find this interesting:

    Year---------Team-----Total Offense-----Total Defense---W/L Record-----Head Coach

    2007.............Florida..................14th........................41st.....................9-4.....................Meyer
    2010.............Auburn...................7th........................60th..................14-0.....................Chizik
    2012..............Texas A&M............3d..........................57th..................11-2.....................Sumlin
    2013..............Mizzou.................16th.........................69th..................11-2.....................Pinkel

    Of the four teams, we had the BEST defense of the group, and had both Tebow and Harvin on offense, yet lost four games. Meyer did less with more than the other three, and overwhelmingly, Meyer is considered the best coach in the nation outside of Tuscaloosa.

    So in sum, they all struggle. In 2012, our offense was horrible due to a lesser quality quarterback, a sketchy O-line, and WRs who couldn't get open. Is that all due to coaching? Perhaps. But it could very well be a talent issue as well. that is, unless you want to attribute the other coach's struggles to poor coaching as well.
  7. Wormwood56
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    My guy did extremely well, but he had the great fortune of winning his first MNC with his predecessors players.

    Oh wait, are you talking about Urban Meyer?
  8. Wormwood56
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    Ahhh, maturity. A breath of fresh air...
  9. gatorev12
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    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    I recognize that your question is a fair one--and a good one in order to keep perspective. Florida has always had a top 10, even top 5 schedule going back as far as most can remember. So you're right: it isn't an easy coaching job by any means.

    However, certain coaches can handle that and do well. Spurrier and Meyer faced the #1 toughest strength of schedule and won the national championship against it. Both had down years when their teams were rebuilding and were replacing multiple starters, but their "low" was 7-5, at worst. When you have the recruiting base and national brand that Florida does, getting talent isn't a problem. Coaching that talent, developing that talent--that's on the coaches and certain coaches are better than others at it.

    Zook was 7-5 consistently. That wasn't good enough.

    Muschamp's low has been the worst of the four: 4-8. On top of that, he also has a 7-6 season on his record. If he has another 7-5 record next year, then we'll know that's his average. And that average, like it was when Zook was here and putting up those numbers, isn't good enough.

    Florida will always have a tough schedule and if a coach can't deal with it, he shouldn't be here. Call me unreasonable if you want, but Florida has the money to hire elite coaches. We shouldn't accept mediocrity just because we have a tough schedule.
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  10. gatorev12
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    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    For a stats guy, I'm surprised this isn't more patently obvious to you. Look at our offense under Muschamp: it's been abysmal all three years. You need both offense AND defense to win. If a coach can't figure out how to get both units up to functioning levels, then he isn't getting it done. Period.

    No one questions Muschamp as a brilliant defensive mind. He has our defense playing very well.

    But so what? Our defense has been nationally ranked multiple times under several other coaches. And, again, as a head coach, unless both units are functioning, then you won't win consistently. That much is proven.
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  11. msa3
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    Oak, I think you're asking the bigger and better question. I'm not sure how to answer, but I'll give it a shot.

    You have to start with the basics of the program. UF has a large stadium, a recognizable brand, a large booster organization and therefore, one would surmise, a lot of money. It is the flagship program in the second- or third- best state for recruiting in the country. While it is not tradition empowered like Michigan, Texas, Bama, USCwest or Ohio State, the last 20 years have proceed as many national championships as almost anyone. In other words, you're not talking about creating or rebuilding an attitude around the program. That has already been done.

    Next, look at recruiting. I don't follow it closely, but I can't remember when UF didn't have a class ranked at least in the top 15 by multiple sources, and usually that class is in the top 10, often in the top 5 and occasionally the top-ranked class. So if we were to take an average, lets's say 8. That would mean there are, on average, seven teams that have a higher talent level than UF. The average win total for teams in the top 15 this year looks to be about 11. So if we're living up to our talent level, we ought to average 10-11 wins.

    Now, let's look at the conference/schedule. While the SEC is a very good conference, on average half the league would be considered formidable. If you assume those are split half between the two divisions, then that means three or four good teams on each side. Since UF plays in the East, and we'll assume UF is one of the good teams, that means three difficult games and three not difficult games. In addition, UF schedules, on average, three cupcakes a season. So between those games, there are six nearly automatic wins out of 12 games.

    So out of the remaining 6 games (and that's assuming that the rotating schedule has UF getting a difficult West opponent as opposed to an easy one. This year we got an easy. Next year a hard one. So it goes) splitting those games -- merely being one of the SEC's better teams, ought to get you at least two more. We're up to eight wins without the team being anything special or winning any games where they are out-talented. Then there's State, against whom we ought to at least split -- win one of our more difficult SEC games in years when we lose to FSU, and vis-versa.

    Even if we don't live up to level of talent we bring in we ought to be at at least nine wins. And 9-3 ought to be a lousy year -- it means we went 3-3 in the games where the talent level was close. Nothing special about that.

    But to your original question: if the QB is gimpy and injury-prone, then you ought to spend as much time as possible in the spring developing a backup plan and a backup QB.

    If you're playing five top-10 teams, and you're a school with what should be top-10 talent, you ought to at least split them. If you're a team with top-10 talent and you're playing teams with 10-15 talent, you ought to win three quarters of them.

    Since 1990, the median win total at UF has been 10. In a year where there are less than the median departing started (8 vs 9.5) the win total ought to be at least that, or even little better. And if you're a school that consistently recruits in the top 10, but doesn't finish there, you ought to be asking yourself why. What happened to the talent, what happened to the program? Were there sanctions like USC? Or a cultural shift, like Colorado saw where admission standards increased dramatically? Or was it something else?
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  12. msa3
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    Just for clarity's sake, SOS went 8-3 in the regular season. The fourth loss was the SECCG. The current schedule allows for one more "automatic" win than the old one did.
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  13. OaktownGator
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    I know we always had tough schedules on average when compared to the rest of the country... but playing four top 25 teams including two top 10 teams puts you near the toughest... and that schedule is far, far easier than what we're facing next year, or what we faced in 20012 for that matter.

    In the 2008 regular season based on final standings, we played three top 25 teams, no top 10 teams and we went 2-1 against those top 25 teams. That's the type of schedule we complain about for "pretenders" from other conferences.

    In 2006, we played four top 25 teams including two in the top 10. We went 1-1 against the top 10 teams, and beat the other two top 25 teams.

    Neither of those schedules are remotely as tough as our 2012 schedule or our projected schedule for next year. In fact, the toughest games from those two years combined, wouldn't be as tough as the projected schedule we play next year. And no SOS coached team faced a schedule like that either... as the SEC was clearly weaker in the 90s than it is now.

    The great Nick Saban's mighty Bama team lost to the only top 10 team it played this year, and beat the two other top 25 teams they played. How would they do against a schedule with four or more top 10 teams and seven top 25 teams? My guess is that even as good as they are, they lose two to three games against that schedule.

    So again, I think it's reasonable that we all consider what our expectations should be against the kind of schedule we play next year.
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  14. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    There's a lot of good thought put into this. I won't try to answer point by point, but will point out that we don't get 6 "cupcakes" next year as we'll probably play seven top 25 teams. And even looking at a team like Tennessee as a "cupcake", may be true from a winning and losing standpoint, but they are still an SEC physical team that is coming to play. Week in and week out, playing seven top 25 teams, plus a couple more teams that are very physical is just a level of competition that no team in the country ever faces.

    As I pointed out in my response to gatorev12, our toughest games combined from our last two national championship years wouldn't make as tough a schedule, as our projected schedule for next year. And teams like Bama this year don't face anywhere near that level of schedule.

    I'd like to think if we really have our act together and can keep our QB healthy, we can get to 10-2, and 10-2 against that schedule would make us one of the top teams in the country - a legit top 5 team. Even with 3 losses, if they are competitive, we're probably a legit top 10 team against that schedule.
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  15. Wormwood56
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    Zook was 8-4 consistently, as we are talking about regular season records in this thread. Not much different, but enough, considering he had 12 or 13 lost starters before the season started EACH year he was here. When SOS and Meyer had such teams they ALSO averaged 8-4. Be fair, rev.

    Muschamp's low has been the worst of the four: 4-8. On top of that, he also has a 7-6 season on his record. If he has another 7-5 record next year, then we'll know that's his average. And that average, like it was when Zook was here and putting up those numbers, isn't good enough.[/quote]

    Well, of Boom goes 7-5 next year with fewer than 12 starters, he is substantially BELOW the Zook standard, and deserves to be fired.
  16. gatorev12
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    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    True, Oak...but also keep in mind: Bama, LSU, South Carolina, and UGAy are all replacing their QBs. South Carolina's backup is good and has experience, but we get him at home this year, so that sets up well for us. Same with Mizzou--who also lose a lot of players on this year's team and won't be nearly as effective next year.

    Preseason rankings are a bit premature. Sure, it looks extremely daunting right now--but who knows what those teams will be like in October after things like previous losses and/or injuries start adding up? Florida was a top-10 team preseason last year...by October, we looked and played like a laughingstock.

    That's my optimistic post in this thread. :D
  17. Wormwood56
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    Couldn't agree more. But Muschamp isn't unique. Meyer went 8-5 with a poor offense and went 9-3 with a poor offense, considering the talent he had on that team in 2005.

    I agree with you that if Boom can't get the offense at least at Spurrier (at USCe) level to go with his great defense, he is not long for the Gator Nation.
  18. wingtee
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    Well, of Boom goes 7-5 next year with fewer than 12 starters, he is substantially BELOW the Zook standard, and deserves to be fired.[/quote]

    I know you are pulling hard for that.. Instability is a great thing worm
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  19. gatorev12
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    That's kinda been my point all along...

    But glad to see we're on the same page. The ball's in his court. I wish him the best and truly do hope he gets it right. Unlike Zook, Muschamp has avoided embarrassing off the field incidents and that's probably a huge reason he's kept his job thus far.
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  20. gatorlaw71
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    The position where there is the biggest talent difference between UF and Alabama is ...

    ... head coach.
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