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Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by gatordavisl, Dec 30, 2013.

  1. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    I could be mistaken, but I think that I've seen data that suggests that FT% doesn't correlate with winning %.
  2. Kirby
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    Kirby Active Member

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    Maybe we can get Eddie dressed up in Gator gear and have him behind the goal to intimidate the opposing team.
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  3. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    FT % may not highly correlate with winning percentage over a number of games, but can definitely kill you in one tight game. Hopefully it doesn't cost us in March.
  4. wci347
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    wci347 Premium Member

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    Round it to 67% and rebuke the devil.
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  5. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    For sure, but if it is a game of 1 or 2 points, you could argue that almost anything was the difference, from the easy layup allowed in the first half to a Wilbekin turnover. But I agree that we certainly want is a strong shooter to try to give the ball to at the end of games, like Frazier.
  6. NorthCaptivaGator
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    NorthCaptivaGator Well-Known Member

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    The key will be, can we get the ball in the hands of the guys that can make them, Prather and Frazier, when we need to.
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  7. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    TBH, any game within 10 points with a couple minutes left, is potential trouble for us right now, even if we've completely controlled the game up to that point. I've seen BD adjust his lineup on offensive and defensive possessions to try to account for teams forcing us to the foul line, so he clearly knows it's an issue.

    Prather has been very impressive in these situations so far. Frazier should be strong too. I'd really love to see Scottie get his FT shooting up to par, because he is the guy we really want with the ball in his hands at that time of the game.
  8. jmac83
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    jmac83 Member

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    The answer is, no. No team, not just the Gators, could reliably get the ball into the hands of just a couple of consistent FT shooters in a must-foul situation. It's too easy to over-defend the reliable guys. Hence the need for others to raise their performance in this area.
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  9. themistocles
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    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    85-90% relieves serious doubts, and even those who shoot 80% and above not infrequently miss shots that end in a loss.

    The question is not what your free throw shooting percentage is, it is what is that percentage when you need to hit the shots, and do you get the rebounds if you miss.
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  10. gatordavisl
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    gatordavisl Well-Known Member

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    Thought I would re-visit this thread after a much improved performance from the line. Gators shot 73.5% on 34 attempts yesterday. The team average is up just a "tad," at 66.8%, but it will take some time if they are going to bump that number up to 70%. Meanwhile, Scottie shot 8/10 and made FTs when they really counted. His average has jumped from 50% to 66.7%. Keep it up Scottie!
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  11. themistocles
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    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    You know Davis, moving from 67% to 74% is probably not "much improved" performance because in fact, it is within the expected distribution range of perhaps 58% to 76% for that 67% average.

    However, most people don't realize it, but ratios (like percentages), distribute in a loge form (should be a subscripted e). Thus, for example, a difference of 5 percentage points at 50% reflects merely a 10% change, whereas 5% at 90% reflects a 100% change. So, at 67%, a 7% change reflects roughly a 20% jump. I wrote a paper about this about 25 years ago, the abstract of which is available at: http://eric.ed.gov/?q=micceri&pg=3&id=EJ419383.
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  12. GatorPlanet
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    GatorPlanet Well-Known Member

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    Scottie is a better free thrower than he'd been showing. Yesterday, in an extremely hostile gym, he did what I believe he can do consistently.
  13. gatordavisl
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    gatordavisl Well-Known Member

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    Agree with the first sentence, but the Gators really did not move from 67% to 74%. You are comparing the game % (73.5) to the season % (67%). Part of the impetus for this thread was the underwhelming game % against Savannah State (59%). There were a near equal number of attempts in both games (32/34). I wonder if, within your statistical model, the move from 59% to 74%, adjusting for the number of attempts, would be considered significant. Note my claim was that they are "much improved," not necessarily that the amount of improvement is statistically significant (though it very well may be when considered for these two games).

    Using a very simplistic model (I'm not a statistician), with a standard deviation of 7.7 (including all season game %s), the game/game comparison between Savannah State and Arkansas games is two SDs apart. The Arkansas game is approx one SD higher than the team average. Implementing my operational definition for "much improved" as being "at or near one SD above the mean," I'm sticking to my claim. :cool:
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  14. bbreece1
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    bbreece1 Active Member

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    Someone on the first page mentioned the "REFEREES" as contributing to our free throw percentage. I guess he was discussing free throw disparity. I surely hope the officials are not applying a foreign substance to the ball before handing it to our shooters.
  15. bakaduin
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    bakaduin Moderator

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    Wheres that bud? I'll be in Springs this weekend to visit family.
  16. bakaduin
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    bakaduin Moderator

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    We can get by shooting a low % of FT's if we can fix some of our other deficiencies.

    Memphis shot under 60% from the FT line for the season in 2008. Though FT shooting didn't help, they truly lost the NC game because they didn't foul with under 3 seconds left.
  17. TampaGatorFan
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    TampaGatorFan Well-Known Member

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    That's one of my faves as well. UP THE IRONS!
  18. gatordavisl
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    gatordavisl Well-Known Member

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    The Gators' avg. has actually dropped from 66.6% ASS (after Savannah State) to 66.4 STAG (subsequent to Auburn game), due to poor FT shooting against UGA. They shot a miserable 55% on 11/20 against UGA, but improved against Auburn to the tune of 23/33 for 69.7%. The best news is that Scottie has improved his avg from 50% to 66.7%. Keep it up Scottie!
  19. tommyuf21
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    tommyuf21 Well-Known Member

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    Scottie has a ridiculously low number of trips to the line. I'm sure missing 5 games has a lot to do with that.

    I believe he'll be in the low to mid 70's by the end of the season.
  20. bayou_gator
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    bayou_gator Active Member

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    Log to the base e.....
    aaaahhh....sweet slide rule memories.

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