4 times in a season?

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by red4512, Mar 30, 2014.

  1. Colin
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    Colin Active Member

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    And I'd rather be playing UK after having beaten them three consecutive times than having lost to them three times in a row.
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  2. gulfgator
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    gulfgator Well-Known Member

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    1. The trend is your friend, not the other way around.
  3. orlandogator
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    orlandogator Well-Known Member

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    that really isn't true. Your assuming a random flip of the coin. You have to take into account a teams growing familiarity of the way the other team plays, if a team happens to be off shooting or rebounding or whatever. Beating any team even once isn't a coin flip.
  4. oneatatime
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    oneatatime Well-Known Member

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    I was at the final four semifinal in 2000 when we beat North Carolina and Michigan State beat Wisconsin for the fourth time (2 regular season, Big10 tournament and the final 4). MSU was also the only top seed to break through and like this year neither North Carolina nor Wisconsin were in the top 4
  5. REM08
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    REM08 Well-Known Member

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    Think some of you are missing the point of the coin flip analogy. It doesn't matter if its truly a 50/50 proposition. If because of Florida's "sum of their parts" or experience or whatever they have a 70% chance of beating UK, that 70% chance exists whether they won the previous three times or not. Both teams have had the same exposure to eachother. Hard to say which team should have learned more from the past. Its probably close to even. Also, whatever random chances affect games, like ft shooting or 3pt shooting or foul trouble, exist the same no matter what happened in previous matchups.
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  6. austingtr
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    austingtr VIP Member

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    And they have to win theirs as well.
  7. gatorfansrule
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    gatorfansrule Well-Known Member

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    My problem playing Kentucky in the championship game is that if Kentucky were to beat us for the National Championship, it would basically wipe away the 3 times we beat them in the season and conference tournament. Yes, we'd still have the conference regular season and tournament championships, but they'd have the ultimate trophy.
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  8. bakaduin
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    bakaduin Super Moderator

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    This.

    UK winning definitely ended the weekend on a sour note. I have no problem not winning the NC this year. We've already won our region and everything else is gravy at this point. That being said, if we were to lose and UK was to win the NC? Worse still if they were to beat us for the NC. That would really sting after beating them 3 times.
  9. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    This is kind of where I am. Beating UK once isn't that hard because Calipari's stuff is easy to figure out, whereas ours is not. Give those freshmen three exposures to it, though, and they don't need their coach to spell it all out for them anymore. They know our personnel, they know what we run, they know what they have to do to stop it. Then the game basically comes down to two factors: execution (particularly shooting from the arc and the stripe) and officiating. I don't expect Calipari to do anything different (after all, as he constantly maintains/makes excuses for himself, "they are still freshmen"), but having to play them four times in the span of two months essentially takes away our single greatest advantage: Donovan's system/game prep.
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  10. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    Agree with both of you. Again, precedent is not necessarily on our side for a title game (re: 85 Nova, 88 Kansas), but beyond that it reveals the one real problematic quirk of a single elimination tournament, and it further substantiates the frustrating opinion that the hoops regular season doesn't matter.
  11. gatorpower
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    gatorpower Active Member

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    Kentucky's freshmen have played the role of the underdog for the past two weeks. Everyone was favored to beat them, even in the SEC title game. They played loose with no pressure.

    Now for an entire week, they'll hear from the talking heads and, perhaps more importantly, their own fan base, that they're awesome and should win the title.

    Think of that pressure for two seconds. A bunch of freshmen having the maturity to win back to back games against great teams with seasoned veterans? Nope.
  12. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    I know we all feel slighted by this, but having the two best teams in the country - if we accept that premise - does not preclude the league as a whole not being very good this year.

    While I agree with this, I can also say that Kentucky played us progressively better in each game, and that should give some of us something to think about.

    If, indeed, we're a team of chemistry and experience and Kentucky is a team of raw talent, it's entirely feasible that time is and will be an equalizer of sorts. I'm more afraid of UConn and Wisconsin but as weird as it sounds, Kentucky in the tourney(s) is almost an "unknown" to me, they're playing so much better than the regular season.
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  13. samit23
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    samit23 Well-Known Member

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    I think this Final Four sets up well for Florida. It's obvious that the storyline going into any potential game is going to be either "this team beat Florida already..." or "...nobody can beat this team 4x in a season..." Either way the #1 overall seed in the tournament is going to have a very large chip on their shoulder heading into to North Texas. And lets not forget that we have Billy Donovan.
  14. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    No matter what, we're not the "chip on the shoulder" team when we've won 30 straight and have been #1 for more than a month.

    And we don't need that. This is a very business-like group, focused and unshakeable. They don't need a false narrative like that to win. They never have.
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  15. Brewski
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    Brewski Well-Known Member

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    Heh, how do you think UK fans feel about facing us again? Come on, anyone but Florida! They've beat us 3 times already and we don't have WCS anymore.
  16. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    UK fans? They have selectively ignored every bad game this season, chalking any supposed "losses" to prologue to winning a national title. After all, that is how their coach treats the regular season.
  17. Brewski
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    Brewski Well-Known Member

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    Heh, I don't doubt it. Although many Cat fans I know are rooting hard for Shabaaz to take over on Sat. They'd much rather have a go at UConn instead of us. One actually told me to "fear the tweak." I asked if there was a second tweak because the first one wasn't effective in Catlanta.
  18. fox
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    fox Well-Known Member

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    Yes I believe they will fold under pressure facing us. But they might beat Wisconsin. All these wins give young guys confidence. We will have to make it false confidence and beat them down again if we face them. They've always impressed me as an entitled group who are surprised they can't beat us. Almost like they don't play all out so they can say "well, I wasn't playing all that hard which is why you beat me."

    I have seen them play very hard in the tournament so maybe they've turned the corner.
  19. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    That's hilarious. I find it hilarious that the "tweak" only seemed to work in the second half of the tourney game against us, not the first. I suspect the "tweak" is typical Calipari offensive coaching: "Just drive the ball right into a crowded lane--I am sure you will get the foul."
  20. akaGatorhoops
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    akaGatorhoops Guest VIP Member

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    A basketball game is not a coin flip. The statistical analogy is pointless. The sports, the better team typically wins. To date, that has happened 3 times in our match ups with UK.
    I would be confident going into the 4th.
    I would much rather play a team I beat 3 straight times than one I had lost to.
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