2013 Picks Panel Thread --- Week 1

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by RealtyGator, Aug 26, 2013.

  1. RealtyGator
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    RealtyGator Active Member

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    The 2013 Picks Panel

    RealtyGator
    intimigator1
    dadx4
    MiddleTNgator
    atlantagator86
    LetItFly
    Wormwood56
    scamgtr
    ThePlayer
    tilly
    feartheswamp2009

    Week 1 Schedule and lines SPREADS LOCKED

    Aug. 29 (Thursday)
    Ole Miss (-3.5) at Vanderbilt
    North Carolina at South Carolina (-11.5)

    Aug. 31
    Alabama (-20.5) vs. Virginia Tech (Atlanta, Ga.)
    UL-Lafayette at Arkansas (-10.5)
    Washington State at Auburn (-15.5)
    Toledo at Florida (-23.5)
    Georgia (-2.5) at Clemson
    Western Kentucky vs. Kentucky (-4.5) (Nashville, Tenn.)
    LSU (-4.5) vs. TCU (Arlington, Texas)
    Miss. State vs. Oklahoma State (-12.5) (Houston, Texas)
    Murray State at Missouri (-37.5)
    Austin Peay at Tennessee (-49.5)
    Rice at Texas A&M (-26.5)

    ***THURSDAY GAME THIS WEEK SO PICKS ARE DUE WEDNESDAY***
  2. dadx4
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    dadx4 Well-Known Member

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    Alrighty then.

    Give me Vandy and South Carolina for Thursday.

    Bammer
    UL-Lafayette
    Washington State- The "fighting" Leaches.
    UF (come on offense!!!)
    Clemson
    Western Kentucky (sad huh)
    TCU
    Oklahoma State
    Mizzou
    Tennessee
    Texas A&M

    If we have a "game of the week"-

    give me Oklahoma State and South Carolina.
  3. atlantagator86
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    atlantagator86 Well-Known Member

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    I guess I'm just not invited this season! :)
  4. RealtyGator
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    RealtyGator Active Member

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    Atlanta, my computer that I had the records on from last year crashed a few months ago, so I had no written record of who participated last year. I could only remember a few participants off the top of my head. You are more than welcome to be on it again this year if you wish...
  5. ACCecil
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    ACCecil Well-Known Member

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    Is the W KY line right? You have W KY -5. Shouldn't W KY be getting points on the road against KY?
  6. MiddleTNgator
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    MiddleTNgator Active Member

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    Yes, it is right. WKU is favored over UK.
  7. Brewski
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    Brewski Well-Known Member

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    No that is flipped. UK is favored in all books. If you find a book with WKU favored, please let me know.
  8. MiddleTNgator
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    MiddleTNgator Active Member

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    You and Cecil were right --- good catch. For whatever reason I was thinking WKU was favored. Especially after everyone here on local radio has been bashing UK for how awful they will be.
  9. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    August 29th: Ole Miss at Vandy, Line: Ole Miss favored by 3.5
    Ole Miss 2012: 7-6
    Total Offense: 46th ………Lost Starters Offense: 2
    Total Defense: 46th……....Lost Starters Defense: 1
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 20th, Star Avg: 3.26

    Vandy 2012: 9-4
    Total Offense: 80th………..Lost Starters Offense: 4
    Total Defense: 19th………..Lost starters Defense: 6
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 45th, Star Avg: 2.84

    Talent Edge: Ole Miss
    Experience Edge: Ole Miss
    Offense Edge: Ole Miss by a comfortable margin
    Defense Edge: Vandy, but not by much

    Analysis: Ole Miss finished strong last year, as did Vandy, but the Rebs return their quarterback, while the 'Dores start a new one. The talent and experience edge heavily favors Ole Miss and overcomes any homefield advantage Vandy may have (which isn't much). As ever, Vandy plays better opponents tough, making up for raw athleticism with intelligence. But Ole Miss seems poised to take their team to the next level, as the stars are aligned for them.

    Prediction: Ole Miss 27, Vandy 17

    August 29: North Carolina at USCe, Line: USCe favored by 11.5
    North Carolina 2012: 8-4
    Total Offense: 14th ………Lost Starters Offense: 5
    Total Defense: 56th……....Lost Starters Defense: 4
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 25th, Star Avg: 3.18

    USCe 2012: 11-2
    Total Offense: 82th………..Lost Starters Offense: 4
    Total Defense: 11th………..Lost starters Defense: 6
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 18th, Star Avg: 3.25

    Talent Edge: USCe (slightly)
    Experience Edge: UNC (slightly)
    Offense Edge: North Carolina by a comfortable margin
    Defense Edge: USCe by a slightly less comfortable margin

    Analysis: After compiling an unprecedented 22-4 record over the last four years, USCe is getting a lot of love from the media and the coaches. Both teams finished strong last year, and both teams have talented experienced quarterbacks who will not lose the game for their team. All of the Tarheels losses were due primarily to defense, while USCe's losses were due to offensive struggles. Each team will play to each others strengths. The key to this game is the impact USCe's defense will have on Bryn Renner, an experienced senior who does not get rattled. Renner is also protected by one of the nation's top tackles, James Hurst. I predict that the defensive star of the day will not be Jadaveon Clowney, but his counterpart, Chaz Sutton, who will benefit from single blocking. USCe's offense is never explosive, but it is efficient, and I do not believe Connor Shaw or Dylan thompson will be as harried by UNC's defense as much as Renner is. USCe's homefield advantage is a strong one.

    Prediction: USCe 21, North Carolina 17

    August 31st: Alabama versus Virginia Tech, Line: Alabama by 19.5

    Alabama 2012: 13-1
    Total Offense: 31st ………Lost Starters Offense: 5
    Total Defense: 1st……....Lost Starters Defense: 4
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 2d, Star Avg: 3.79

    Virginia Tech 2012: 7-6
    Total Offense: 81st………..Lost Starters Offense: 4
    Total Defense: 18th………..Lost Starters Defense: 2
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 23d, Star Avg: 3.17

    Talent Edge: Alabama
    Experience Edge: Virginia Tech
    Offense Edge: Alabama by a comfortable margin
    Defense Edge: Alabama by a less comfortable margin

    Analysis: Alabama is coming off their second MNC season in a row, while Virginia Tech is coming off their worst season since 1992. The wheels fell off the Hokies offense last year, as the team had to replace virtually their entire starting lineup except for QB Logan Thomas. This year, they replaced eternal VT scapegoat Brian Stinespring as OC, replacing him with former Gator Scot Loeffler, and the intent is to make the VT offense more of a ball control type offense so as to rest Bud Foster's defense. VT is in a sense a carbon copy of USCe with strong defense and (hopefully for VT) an efficient if unspectacular offense (the Saban/Woody Hayes Big Ten model). However, VT doesn't have a Clowney, and VT lost three starters on defense, including their preseason AA DB Antone Exum. Hokies are banged up as they prepare to go against the most complete team in college football. The Hokies will probably rebound and finish with another 10-win year, but like in 2007 against LSU, this game won't be pretty, as VT is not at full strength. Even at full strength, they would probably lose, but as they are now...

    Prediction: Alabama 47, Virginia Tech 10

    Georgia at Clemson, Line Georgia favored by 2.5

    Georgia 2012: 12-2
    Total Offense: 22d ………Lost Starters Offense: 3
    Total Defense: 32d……...Lost Starters Defense: 8
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 10th, Star Avg: 3.56

    Clemson 2012: 11-2
    Total Offense: 9th………..Lost Starters Offense: 5
    Total Defense: 63d………..Lost Starters Defense: 5
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 18th, Star Avg: 3.37

    Talent Edge: Georgia
    Experience Edge: Clemson
    Offense Edge: Clemson by a slight margin
    Defense Edge: Georgia by an even slighter margin

    Analysis: This is probably the best game of the week, a wild night affair at Death Valley. Georgia's offense looks to be among their best ever, and they will go against a clemson defense that was not good last year. The problem is that clemson's offense may even be better than Georgia's, and they are going against a defense that wasn't that good last year, and lost 8 starters, seven of which left in the NFL draft including two first rounders (how on Earth could a defense with that much talent finish 32d?).

    This game has shootout all over it. The key to this game is ball control, and because of the fact that Georgia's running tandem of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall have the edge over Clemson, I will have to conclude that...

    Prediction: Georgia 52, Clemson 48

    LSU versus TCU, Line: LSU favored by 4.5

    ***TOP PICK!!***

    LSU 2012: 10-3
    Total Offense: 85th ………Lost Starters Offense: 3
    Total Defense: 8th……....Lost Starters Defense:
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 8th, Star Avg: 3.60

    TCU 2012: 11-2
    Total Offense: 72d………..Lost Starters Offense: 4
    Total Defense: 16th……...Lost Starters Defense: 2
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 41st Star Avg: 3.04

    Talent Edge: LSU
    Experience Edge: TCU
    Offense Edge: LSU due to playing in defensive conference
    Defense Edge: TCU due to playing in offensive conference

    Analysis: Another game with two teams in the Bama/VT/USCe/Florida mold. Both teams live and die with their defense. LSU has a tremendous talent edge, but TCU has a large edge in experience. TCU's defense is probably a bit better than LSU's last year due to playing five top 12 offenses, while LSU's is probably better due to playing three top 11 defenses.

    The key to this game is experience. LSU lost all eight defensive players to the NFL draft. While TCU is no offensive juggernaut, they return most of their offense, and should be able to control the ball better against a green defensive unit, while LSU, whose offense is hardly explosive, will face a 16th ranked defense that returns 9 starters. As such:

    Prediction: TCU 21, LSU 17

    Mississippi State versus Oklahoma State, Line: Cowbows by 12.5

    Miss State 2012: 8-5
    Total Offense: 79th ………Lost Starters Offense: 4
    Total Defense: 52d……....Lost Starters Defense: 6
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 32d, Star Avg: 3.05

    Oklahoma State 2012: 8-5
    Total Offense: 4th………..Lost Starters Offense: 4
    Total Defense: 80th……...Lost Starters Defense: 2
    Recruiting Avg, 2009-13: 33d Star Avg: 3.01

    Talent Edge: Even
    Experience Edge: Oklahoma State
    Offense Edge: Oklahoma State by a massive margin
    Defense Edge: Miss State by a slight margin due to OSU’s experience

    Analysis: Oklahoma State struggled through an 8-5 season last year, replacing 12 starters, mostly on defense. The Cowboys can move the ball on anyone (742 yards against La-Lafayette). All those rookies on defense last year have a year under their belts. Miss State returns QB Tyler Russell, and Dan Mullen put together a team with a balanced offense and defense. The Bulldogs slumped badly last year, however, while the Cowboys did somewhat better, losing close games against Oklahoma and Baylor, two teams with top ten offenses. Miss State replaces six starters on a defense that wasn't very good last year and will have to face what will possibly be the best offense in the nation.

    Prediction: Oklahoma State 37, Miss State 20

    Other Games:

    UL-Lafayette at Arkansas (-10.5): 'Cajuns lose 8 starters, but Hawgs return 8 on defense, and Bielema will have them playing good defense: Arkansas 24, La-Lafayette 14

    [B]Washington State at Auburn (-15.5): [/B]Both teams were 3-9 last year, both return most of their starters, both have certified offensive gurus as head coach, and both have teams that need work. Malzahn has several players that remember his offense, however, and the game is at Jordan-Hare. Unless Leach has them working like he had 'em working at Texas Tech, I see... Auburn 37, Washington State 17

    Western Kentucky at Kentucky (-4.5):[/B] Bobby Petrino was the best offensive coach in the SEC while at Arkansas, leading the conference in offense with 8th-ranked (in SEC) recruiting). The Hilltoppers shocked the Flagship University last year. It won't happen again, as Stoops will ensure that the 'Cats at least TRY to play defense. With the talent advantage heavily in Kentucky's favor, I don't think the 'Cats will allow that to happen again. Kentucky 27, Western Kentucky 17

    Mizzou blows out Murray State, 58-7

    Tennessee Crushes Austin Peay, 44-3

    Texas A&M crushes Rice, 55-21


    Toledo at Florida (-23.5): Florida wins 34-17. We begin Florida's analysis next week against Miami.
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  10. MiddleTNgator
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    Ole Miss (-3.5) at Vanderbilt
    North Carolina at South Carolina (-11.5)
    Alabama (-19.5) vs. VA Tech
    UL-Lafayette at Arkansas (-10.5)
    Washington State at Auburn (-15.5)
    Toledo at Florida (-23.5)
    Georgia (-2.5) at Clemson
    Western Kentucky vs. Kentucky (-4.5)
    LSU (-4.5) vs. TCU
    MS State vs. Oklahoma State (-12.5)
    Murray State at Missouri (-37.5)
    Austin Peay at Tennessee (-49.5)
    Rice at Texas A&M (-26.5) -- pick of the week

    edited to reflect the updated spreads
  11. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    WW - I like the way you approach the analysis. Seeing as you're taking the time to be that detailed, I'd suggest that if the information is available to you, you look not just at returning starters, but returning starts, or returning plays.

    If two teams both return 6 starters on defense, but one of the two teams had all five new starters play a lot in the two deep the prior year, while the other had little or no playing time, there is a huge difference in the returning experience, although it would look the same if you just look at returning starters. If number of plays/starts isn't easy to get, maybe the number of players returning from the two deep, as most teams will rotate in their second team players.

    I'd maybe also look for how many big plays return (TDs and over 20 yd gains on offense, picks and fumble recoveries, sacks, kick blocks on defense).

    Good stuff, though.
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  12. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    That would take a good hour for EACH game. I make certain presumptions, such as the idea that EVERY coordinator ensures that his backups get plenty of snaps. You are right, there ARE nuances, but how wide do they vary? I can assure you that Kirby Smart, John Chavis, Bud Foster, Lorenzo Ward, and all the other good DCs out there rotate their backups liberally.

    Based on my studies, less that 20% of winning teams are able to exceed or even duplicate their previous year's record if they lose 12 or more starters, or more than 7 on a side. Charlie Strong said it takes time for a team to gel as a unit, and starting units play most of the snaps as a unit, with supplemental replacements as needed. Blowouts get the backups in even more, so it makes sense that explosive offenses tend to play their backups more.

    I wanted to do this as a means of determining if prognostication by statistical analyses is actually worth the time and effort. There is no way one can measure intangibles, and the knowledge one needs to keep abreast of EVERY injury take an enormous amount of time and effort. But if this is actually a good way to handicap games, I want to see if it would be worthy to take this system to Vegas as a hobby. I certainly don't see the talking heads discuss this stuff. They are too starry-eyed with whoever the head coach is to pay attention to details.

    As a baseball fan, I learned a lot from Bill James on how stupid Conventional Wisdom can be. For example, James said that for years, baseball managers equated the ideal leadoff hitter with someone who has great speed, like Luis Aparicio, but at the end of the year, in spite of hitting .300 and leading the AL in steals, Aparicio would rarely score 100 runs a year, because he seldom drew a walk and his on-base percentage was poor. A plodder with a good batting eye, who hits .275 with 100 walks a year, OTOH, tends to score many more runs each year. Until Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines came up and demonstrated that speed AND plate discipline was essential (especially the later), everyone followed the Aparicio paradigm.

    Never trust Conventional Wisdom. Usually, it is flawed and archaic. And never trust the fan. They think with their heart, not their brain.
  13. atlantagator86
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    atlantagator86 Well-Known Member

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    Ole Miss at Vanderbilt - Vandy is a well coached team.
    North Carolina at South Carolina - Spurrier wins but doesn't beat the spread
    Alabama vs. Virginia Tech - Bama wins by 2 TDs, but doesn't beat the spread.
    UL-Lafayette at Arkansas - Arkansas is going to struggle on offense this year and ULL returns Broadway at QB and it's top rusher. I could see this game being VERY close. Maybe even an upset.
    Washington State at Auburn - UI expect Auburn to be a much better team than last year with Malzahn running the offense and Ellis Johnson running the defense.
    Toledo at Florida - Offense finally puts together an impressive performance.
    Georgia at Clemson - Hope I'm wrong on this one.
    Western Kentucky vs. Kentucky
    LSU vs. TCU - LSU rolls! PICK OF THE WEEK!
    Miss. State vs. Oklahoma State - Something tells me that MSU's defense is going to give OSU trouble and keep it close. OSU wins a close one.
    Murray State at Missouri - I think Mizzou might be pretty strong on offense with Franklin and Green-Beckham, plus Josey returning at RB.
    Austin Peay at Tennessee - Tennessee wins easily but with a new QB, the offense isn't going to beat anyone by 40 points.
    Rice at Texas A&M - A&M wins but the distractions of Manziel will weigh on the team. My season prediction is that even if Manziel plays all season (and I think he will), Texas A&M will be the most overrated team in the SEC this year.
  14. intimigator1
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    intimigator1 Well-Known Member

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    From the beautiful island of Fregate Island Private, Seychelles and coming off a disappointing mid season GC ban are my winning picks:
    Ole miss vs Vandy....Vandy by 8
    Alabama vs Vtech....Alabama
    Ull vs Arkansas....Ull
    Wsu at Auburn...Auburn
    Toledo at Florida ...Florida (game of the week)
    Georgia at Clemson...Clemson in a high scoring game
    Wku at Kentucky...Kentucky
    Lsu at Tcu....Lsu
    Miss St. At Ok.St. ...Miss.St
    Murray St at Missouri....Missouri
    Austin Peay at Tenn......Tennesses
    Rice at Texas AM.....Texas AM
  15. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Points taken.

    I think it may be of value to look at the number of returning two deep (particularly on defense) if you are considering rotations a wash.

    Your call certainly. I know this has to be a lot of work.

    It will be interesting to see how well this approach works as a predictive tool, but it looks like a good approach to me.

    For instance, my take would be Ole Miss over Vandy, as you predicted based with your analysis, while several here see Vandy (based on last year no doubt) as being the stronger team.

    FWIW, I'd go with Clemson over UGA as I see their offenses as a wash, and Clemson brings more back on defense and has the home field advantage which might be worth a TD for them. But I can see your argument for UGA winning due to ball control. Either way, it definitely looks like a shootout.
  16. GATORAZ
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    GATORAZ Well-Known Member

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    If LSU loses to TCU it is going to be a long season.
  17. RealtyGator
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    RealtyGator Active Member

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    The spreads are now locked for this week. Please note the corrections made in the lines for the Kentucky and Tennessee games. BTW, I get the lines from VegasInsider.com, and occasionally they do make errors in posting the lines which they usually correct in a day or so. That was the case with the Kentucky game. Regardless of any errors, once the spreads are locked, THAT is what we use in this game :)
  18. ACCecil
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    ACCecil Well-Known Member

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    This is not coming from a beautiful private island.

    The LSU-TCU game is being played in Texas not in Death Valley. I believe the game is being played in Jerry World. In addition, ESPN has reported that the head coaches have been exchanges barbs which spices up the game some. I think this is a good chance for the underdog to win out right. LSU's QB is, in my humble opinion, putrid. He is fairly accurate but he is immoble and easy to sack and virtually no threat to run. In this day and age of duel threat QB's that is freaking huge.

    As much as I want Clemson and UNC to win I find myself worried that the ACC team will get blown out by the more physical SEC rival. Clemson looked great last year except against USCe because the Gamecocks didn't stand for any of that finesse BS and just pushed them around. UGA may be replacing lots of guys but I feel they might get stronger as the game goes on and eventually choke the fight out of the Tigers. It is really hard to take an ACC team in games against SEC teams because ACC teams disappoint you when you put any faith into them. Of course, Clemson did beat Auburn and LSU last year.

    Great work Wormwood. Good luck!
  19. gtj31
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    gtj31 Active Member

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    Hopefully without completely hijacking the thread, I have only been to Praslin (5 days) and Mahe (not really been per se, walked around the capital for an afternoon). We LOVED Praslin. Beautiful place. I would go back in a heart beat. It was my first time at the Equator (I have been well south of it but never virtually on it) and the sun was amazingly intense. I couldn't believe how fast I burned.

    As for the picks (the games that interest me anyway):
    USCe rolls
    Clemson upsets UGA
    Bama rolls
    TCU upsets LSU
    Ole Miss whips Vandy
    Toledo covers but UF wins by 17
    Auburn rolls over WSU
    I don't even know the line but I wouldn't be shocked by Pitt covering (still losing) against the SWAC just because of no QB experience on the SWAC' sideline.s
  20. ACCecil
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    ACCecil Well-Known Member

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    Vegas likes W KY because of Petrino. Well, Petrino won't making any tackles or catching any passes and coaches with spread, wide open, pass on all four down offenses aren't as rare as the used to be. I think KY kicks W KY's small school, not good enough for prime time, try playing in other than a high school stadiums butt's.

    I'm feeling some SEC love there.

    KY is going to get that thing done at home.

    Pitt will probably cover but FSU's QB Winston isn't some weak kneed, wide eyed, scared player who will cough it up just because he is being rushed. Winston will play fine, FSU's OL will be good, FSU will run the rock, FSU's D will be much improved and will cause some freaking TO's, Pitt might cover, if they are lucky, I'll throw them a bone, but FSU will win and they might win big or let up early.

    TCU will make LSU's Mecklinberger look dumb. He already looks dumb to me. I am still feeling TCU wins out right. I'm feeling that. Big ole Texas crowd to see some SEC butt deep fried too. I'm liking the Frogs there.

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