2011 and 2012 coaching hires at major and/or SEC programs...how they are doing

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by mikehev, Nov 3, 2013.

  1. mikehev

    mikehev Well-Known Member

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    I did not include new hires for 2013, as those coaches are in their first year. Here is a quick look at how new coaching hires of top programs and/or SEC programs are doing 2 or 3 years in.

    2011:
    UF- Will Muschamp: 7-6, 11-2, 4-4 after replacing 8-5 ('10), 13-1, 13-1, 9-4, 13-1, 9-3
    Vanderbilt- James Franklin: 6-7, 9-4, 4-4 after replacing 2-10 ('10), 2-10, 7-6, 5-7, 4-8
    Miami- Al Golden: 6-6, 7-5, 7-1 after replacing 5-7 ('10), 7-6, 9-4, 7-5
    Michigan- B. Hoke: 11-2, 8-5, 6-2 after replacing 3-9 ('10), 5-7, 7-6
    Stanford- **Internal hire from hbc vertical move** 11-2, 12-2, 7-1 after replacing Harbaugh

    2012:
    Ole Miss- Hugh Freeze: 7-6, 5-3 after replacing ('11) 2-10, 4-8, 9-4, 9-4
    TAMU- Kevin Sumlin: 11-2, 6-2 after replacing ('11) 6-6, 9-4, 6-7, 4-8
    Ohio State- Urban Meyer: 12-0, 8-0 after replacing ('11) 6-7, Tressel

    Biggest Improvement in winning percentage from what they were hired to replace (ie. in Muschamp's case and Meyer's case I am showing improvement from immediate history, not overall history, 8-5 for Muschamp, 6-7 for Meyer)


    1. Meyer 46% to 100% (+54%)
    2. Hoke 41% to 74% (+33%)
    3. Sumlin 50% to 81% (+31%)
    4. Franklin from 32% to 56% (+24%)
    5. Golden 56% to 63% (+10%)
    6. Freeze 48% to 57% (+9%)
    7. Muschamp 62% to 64% (+2%)

    In my opinion, the most impressive of these is Franklin. Meyer inherited a talented team at OSU and he and Hoke both play in a weak, Big 10 conference. Sumlin is benefiting from a once-in-a-lifetime player in Manziel. Muschamp is trailing this pack, and the 11-2 season feels more like the exception than the trend at this point.

    I know stats can be slanted, but I also think this tells us something about recent hires.

    In Christ forever,
    Mike
    John 3:16
  2. ApexNC

    ApexNC Well-Known Member

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    Nice analysis, but Meyer and Muschamp's numbers are greatly inflated by only using one prior year. Comparing apples to apples will do a better job of showing performance compared to recent program strength and success.
  3. TheGator

    TheGator Premium Member

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    Now include 2013 hires. Several first year coaches doing well.

    Kingsbury and Malzahn.
  4. mikehev

    mikehev Well-Known Member

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    Add Meyer and Muschamp non-inflated numbers and rankings (i.e. considering both Meyer's career at Florida in the case of Muschamp, the Jim Tressel era in the case of Meyer, and the internal hire of Shaw after a vertical move from Harbaugh--which again, is skewed, since Harbaugh got them to where they are now, and he is building/sustaining on that foundation)


    1. Hoke 41% to 74% (+33%)
    2. Sumlin 50% to 81% (+31%)
    3. David Shaw 58% to 86% (+ 28%)**skewed...Harbaugh got them to 12-1 from 1-11 before he got there**
    T-4. Meyer 76% to 100% (+24%)
    T-4. Franklin from 32% to 56% (+24%)
    6. Golden 56% to 63% (+10%)
    7. Freeze 48% to 57% (+9%)
    8. Muschamp 81% to 64% (-17%)

    Either way you look at it, it's not good compared to every other big time and/or SEC program in the country.

    In Christ forever,
    Mike
    John 3:16
  5. MiddleTNgator

    MiddleTNgator Active Member

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    Prepare to be skewered by the pro-Muschamp crowd as they offer out every excuse possible.
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  6. Gator_n_Austin

    Gator_n_Austin Member

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    Strength of schedule? Maybe, or does who they played not really matter.
  7. Jonas

    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    SOS doesn't matter, because it's measuring the relative increase or decrease of the program. It really is just comparing how those coaches compare to the previous coach. So Muschamp is being compared to an elite coach (Meyer), while someone like Sumlin is being compared to an average head coach better.

    Interesting analysis, but I'm not sure if you can compare all the coaches directly with this type of analysis.
  8. mikehev

    mikehev Well-Known Member

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    I agree, it can be skewed. That is why I compared Muschamp against Meyer's 8-5 year (one nobody here was satisfied with), and Meyer with OSU's 6-7 year, and threw out Shaw from Stanford as he is sustaining what Harbaugh did.

    I think the 1st analysis gets you closer to being able to form an opinion about how each one is performing.

    In Christ forever,
    Mike
    John 3:16
  9. Gator_n_Austin

    Gator_n_Austin Member

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    Ok, cool breakdown. Im impressed with Sumlin and Franklin, didn't see Sumlin coming at all
  10. Ofg8r

    Ofg8r Active Member

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    Meaningless gibberish.
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  11. mikehev

    mikehev Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps instead of wins and losses we should look at Time of Possession?

    Sorry, couldn't resist :)


    In Christ forever,
    Mike
    John 3:16
  12. ApexNC

    ApexNC Well-Known Member

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    LOL

    Good, thoughtful analysis either way. This does sort of cherry pick the successful coaches. Add in Kiffin, for one...and Coach Muschamp doesn't look quite as bad :grin:
  13. Pieisyummy

    Pieisyummy Active Member

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  14. gator1986

    gator1986 Well-Known Member

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  15. mikehev

    mikehev Well-Known Member

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    Actually, Kiffen got there in 2010. I really did do every coach of a major and/or SEC program that started at the same time Muschamp did. Kiffen would have been Jimbo's year-group.

    I left out the likes of Arizona, Washington St., etc. as I don't see them being major players.

    In Christ forever,
    Mike
    John 3:16

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