#1 inTOP???

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by TBEAU, Sep 24, 2013.

  1. TBEAU
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    TBEAU VIP Member

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  2. KronoGator
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    KronoGator Well-Known Member

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    Interesting that the top 6 all have at least one loss.
  3. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    We were #9 in TOP last year.
  4. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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  5. Tipmoose
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    Tipmoose New Member

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    Oooh! #1 in TOP...SQUEEEEEE!!!!
  6. demosthenes
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    demosthenes Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it's not like we're running a bunch of plays in those 39 minutes each game.
  7. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Many folks think that TOP is the most overrated stat out there. Just want to see if this is true. Looking at the top five AQ conference schools the last six years, and compare with turnover margin:

    Year------Team---------------------TOP Rank---------Turnover Margin---------W/L Record

    2012.......Michigan State...................3d..............................50th........................7-6
    2012.......Georgia Tech......................5th............................45th........................7-7
    2012.......Louisville............................6th.............................17th.....................11-2
    2012.......Florida................................9th...............................7th.....................11-2
    2012.......Alabama...........................11th.............................13th.....................13-1

    2011.......Virginia Tech.......................3d..............................35th.....................11-3
    2011.......Kansas State......................4th...............................9th.....................10-3
    2011.......Georgia...............................6th............................26th......................10-4
    2011.......Texas..................................7th............................59th........................8-5
    2011.......Stanford..............................9th............................30th......................11-2

    2010.......Stanford..............................1st..............................7th......................12-1
    2010.......Wisconsin............................6th.............................6th.......................11-2
    2010.......Ohio State.........................11th.............................4th.......................12-1
    2010.......Illinois................................12th...........................22d..........................7-6
    2010.......Virginia Tech......................16th..............................1st......................11-3

    2009........Wisconsin...........................1st............................47th......................10-3
    2009........Georgia Tech......................3d.............................22d........................11-3
    2009........Kansas State......................4th...........................19th.........................6-6
    2009........Alabama.............................5th..............................4th.......................14-0
    2009........Penn State.........................6th............................26th.......................11-2

    2008........Nebraska............................2d...........................107th.........................9-4
    2008........Virginia Tech.......................3d..............................10th......................10-3
    2008........Texas..................................8th............................49th......................12-1
    2008........Arizona..............................10th............................29th........................8-5
    2008........Alabama.............................11th...........................32d.......................12-2

    2007........Wisconsin.............................1st...........................70th........................9-4
    2007........Wake Forest.........................2d............................18th........................9-4
    2007........Arizona St.............................3d.............................38th.....................10-3
    2007........Oregon St.............................6th............................55th.......................9-4
    2007........LSU.......................................7th..............................2d......................12-2

    Two-thirds of the teams ended up with ten or more wins. Many of the teams have a similar philosophy to Muschamp: Strong defense, ball control to eat the clock and keep the defense fresh, and protect the ball. Last year, Boom was able to do both and we finished 11-2 in spite of a 103d ranked offense.

    The way I see it, once boom has his players and system in place, he would be content to improve the offense to where Bama's usually is, and with our talent, we should be extremely successful. Remember, Alabama's philosophy for their 10-win teams since 1986 were (prior to 1999, TO and TD represented by points for/against):

    Year-------Total Offense------Total Defense------W/L Record

    1986.....................34th.......................5th....................10-3
    1989.....................22d.......................22d.....................10-3
    1991.....................31st........................3d.....................11-1
    1992.....................22d.........................1st....................13-0
    1994.....................58th........................9th...................12-1
    1996.....................60th........................6th...................10-3
    1999.....................42d.........................4th....................10-3
    2002.....................30th........................3d.....................10-3
    2005.....................67th........................2d.....................10-2
    2008.....................63d.........................3d.....................12-2
    2009.....................42d.........................2d.....................14-0
    2010.....................22d.........................5th....................10-3
    2011.....................31st........................1st....................13-1
    2012.....................31st........................1st....................13-1

    Nick Saban didn't bring his brand to Alabama. He simply is coaching Alabama football, and Muschamp learned at his side...
  8. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Assuming that your response is sarcastic, I'd ask you to check our seconds/play stat. It is quite high. What gives us more plays is first downs. And last year, we ranked among the very bottom in plays per game in the nation despite our top 10 time of possession.
  9. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the work Worm. I think what we would really like to see is a correlation analysis with TOP and team quality (which of course would still not tell us causation). I did one in another thread with tempo and team quality that showed basically no relationship. I'll try to do one for TOP as well at some point, since this question keeps coming up.
  10. manigordo
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    manigordo Well-Known Member

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    This year we are combining excellent TOP with about 400 yards a game in offense. If we can stop the turnovers we will win a lot of games. Our defensive prowess is directly related to TOP.
  11. MaceoP
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    MaceoP Well-Known Member

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    As someone who can appreciate TOP in context.. If you don't have a strong D and play ball control, TOP won't work very well. Controlling the ball goes hand in hand with controlling the clock, in that style of play. The 3 games we lost the last 2 years had one thing in common.. No ball control as we had multiple turnovers in each game.

    In our case, TOP will only work if we move the ball, control the clock, play strong D, and DON'T turn the ball over. All these factors have to happen for us to consistently win.
    We have a strong D, we can move the ball, we can control the clock. It's the turnovers that kill us.
  12. Speedofsand
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    Speedofsand New Member

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    We also have lost 6 of 12 fumbles in 3 games.
    Keep that up and it will be a 7-5 season.
  13. manigordo
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    manigordo Well-Known Member

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    Or correct the turnovers and win 10-11. Anything can happen with this team. It is like a box of chocolates.....
    • Like Like x 1
  14. GatorStang
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    Yeah, we are tied for 88th in TO margin at -1... Even after all the TO's we gained from UT, we are still well behind the 8 ball. That needs to change to be more successful as stated.
  15. Claygator
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    Claygator Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. TOP means our offense is wearing out the opposing defense, and our D is coming in fresher.
  16. demosthenes
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    demosthenes Well-Known Member

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    Not being sarcastic at all. We're high in ToP because we have a great defense and we milk the play clock.
  17. demosthenes
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    demosthenes Well-Known Member

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    I linked a statistical analysis of ToP and winning in an NFL thread and the two had a very weak correlation coefficient, around .2. ToP is a reflection of doing other things and shouldn't be given much credence. It's only important that you can run time off the click when you want to at the end of games.
  18. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Well, being that 2/3 of the teams I listed were 10+ win teams, I think that is a pretty fair indication of quality. Now we can also look at the bottom five torunover margin teams and their records:

    Year----Team----------------Turnover Margin-----Time of Possession----W/L Record

    2012.........South Florida............118th.........................112th...........................3-9
    2012.........Colorado..................118th............................24th...........................1-11
    2012.........Arkansas..................118th..........................107th...........................4-8
    2012.........Virginia.....................110th............................14th...........................4-8
    2012.........Illinois.......................106th............................52d............................2-10

    2011.........Notre Dame...............118th...........................59th...........................8-5
    2011.........Florida.......................113th.........................103d............................7-6
    2011.........Iowa State................112th...........................76th...........................6-7
    2011.........Duke..........................108th...........................33d............................3-9
    2011.........Texas A&M.................106th...........................98th...........................7-6

    2010.........Cincinnati...................119th.........................110th...........................4-8
    2010.........Texas.........................116th...........................52d............................5-7
    2010.........UCLA..........................112th...........................55th...........................4-8
    2010.........Duke..........................112th............................83d............................3-9
    2010.........Kansas.......................105th...........................76th...........................3-9

    The average W/L record is 4-8.

    Now, how about the bottom five for TOP?

    2012.........Miami..........................119th...........................30th...........................7-5
    2012.........Indiana.......................118th...........................78th...........................4-8
    2012.........North Carolina............117th...........................30th...........................8-4
    2012.........Tennessee..................116th...........................88th..........................5-7
    2012.........Boston College............115th...........................88th..........................2-10

    2011.........Oregon........................120th...........................22d..........................12-2
    2011.........Maryland......................119th...........................36th..........................2-10
    2011.........Miss State....................117th...........................59th..........................7-6
    2011.........Oklahoma St................114th.............................1st.........................12-1
    2011.........Baylor...........................112th...........................30th........................10-3

    2010.........Arizona St.....................118th...........................86th..........................6-6
    2010.........Vandy...........................115th...........................79th..........................2-10
    2010.........Michigan........................113th........................109th..........................7-6
    2010.........Cincinnati......................110th........................119th..........................4-8
    2010.........Oklahoma St..................109th..........................11th........................12-2

    Average W/L record: 7-5

    IMO, the bottom set of stats are skewed by the handful of teams like Oregon, Okie State and Baylow, whose low TOP was due to their powerful offenses. Generally speaking, however, if a team does not have a lights-out offense, their TOP seems to have only as much value as it relates to their turnover margin.

    IOW, the worst teams cough up the ball the most, and have the most losses. Turnover margin is considerably more important than TOP. in my view, even though I do not believe TOP is overrated.
  19. gator34654
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    gator34654 Well-Known Member

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    TOP will wear out powder puff teams but good defenses usually have depth. One would have thought with our TOP against scum their D would have been worn out but that was not the case. They subbed a lot and most good teams do the same.

    IMO the best thing about TOP is that it keeps the opposing O off the field and keeps our D fresh. As long as we get points and protect the ball, this style should serve us well.
  20. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Oh cool. This is about what I would have figured. I think that I found a correlation coefficient of about 0.1 for the relationship between plays/game and Sagarin rating, and I figured we'd see a slightly higher relationship for ToP. I agree that the running time of the clock at the end is the really important time for that.

    And sorry about the sarcasm assumption. I seem to be getting a lot of those these days, so it seemed a safer bet.

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