Gator Country

BengermanV · 03-18-2013, 12:27 PM

I know, I know. It's a Gator board. But count me in as one of the guys who loves talking SEC Basketball, and feels an utter dislike towards the Wildcats. I also think we have some really good rival posters over here, and this series is moving closer and closer to feeling like an actual big-time rivalry.

Next year poses an interesting predicament for the 'Cats. The closer we get to the offseason, the more it seems like they'll have a couple guys coming back, and a recruit or two more headed their way (which would be a ridiculously sized 7-man class). Especially for Poythress and Goodwin, how much playing time could they actually expect to get when the Harrison brothers come in? Probably not much. Calipari has never been one for a deep bench, so it this either means that two or three of his recruits get no playing time, or that two of the incoming Freshman don't get PT.

What's even more worrisome is that UK has yet to land a game changer of a recruit. There is no John Wall, no Anthony Davis, and no Nerlans Noel. The bright side? This class really resembles the Final Four squad that Brandon Knight was a part of. If they can somehow get WCS to return, it instantly becomes a Final Four quality team. Even with the addition of Randle or Wiggins probably makes them a Final Four team, but at some point, they are going to need someone who has gone through the ringer before and unless I'm mistaken, they have no players with tournament experience next year.

The most likely roster, IMO, would be this:

PG: A. Harrison
SG: Aa. Harrison
SF: A. Poythress
PF: J. Randle
C: M. Lee

With Wiljter, Willis, and Young coming off of the bench.

I don't see UK getting Wiggins, but I think they get Randle. Obviously could be wrong, but both of those guys have the potential to be "gamechangers" that I think they might lack otherwise. Obviously the Harrison twins are very good, but I'm not sure they have the playmaking ability of their past elite players that have lead them to Final Fours.

When you look at the Gators, I think there is a lot to compare between the two teams:

PG: Hill/Wilbekin
SG: Frazier/Graham
SF: Finney-Smith/Prather
PF: Walker/Yeguete
C: Young/Harris

The great thing about that team (which is under the assumption everyone returns) is that you could easily flip the subs for the starters and still have a great squad. Next years team will be much better on the boards, but not quite the defensive threat. I think we'll also be much more consistent offensively, given that we won't have to rely so much on the three.

Out of curiosity, which team would you all take next year?

mac4lyfe · 03-18-2013, 12:37 PM

While I value talent, I think coaching is more important. I'm still not sold on Cal's ability to coach in-game. I see his teams with several flaws most years. Poor free throw shooting, lack of overall focus/effort, lack of ball movement in the half court, low basketball IQ, etc.

I don't think UK is going to blast everyone away next year like most think. We shall see.

LoyalGatorFan · 03-18-2013, 01:02 PM

As far as next year's UF team, I would argue the opposite that Bengerman did...I think we will be even better defensively because we will be longer, taller, and more athletic across the board....what im worried about is finding offense...we lose our top three scorers.....our offense will have to change somewhat next year at the 4 spot especially...we will really miss Murphy's 3 pt shooting

REM08 · 03-18-2013, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BengermanV

I know, I know. It's a Gator board. But count me in as one of the guys who loves talking SEC Basketball, and feels an utter dislike towards the Wildcats. I also think we have some really good rival posters over here, and this series is moving closer and closer to feeling like an actual big-time rivalry.

Next year poses an interesting predicament for the 'Cats. The closer we get to the offseason, the more it seems like they'll have a couple guys coming back, and a recruit or two more headed their way (which would be a ridiculously sized 7-man class). Especially for Poythress and Goodwin, how much playing time could they actually expect to get when the Harrison brothers come in? Probably not much. Calipari has never been one for a deep bench, so it this either means that two or three of his recruits get no playing time, or that two of the incoming Freshman don't get PT.

What's even more worrisome is that UK has yet to land a game changer of a recruit. There is no John Wall, no Anthony Davis, and no Nerlans Noel. The bright side? This class really resembles the Final Four squad that Brandon Knight was a part of. If they can somehow get WCS to return, it instantly becomes a Final Four quality team. Even with the addition of Randle or Wiggins probably makes them a Final Four team, but at some point, they are going to need someone who has gone through the ringer before and unless I'm mistaken, they have no players with tournament experience next year.

The most likely roster, IMO, would be this:

PG: A. Harrison
SG: Aa. Harrison
SF: A. Poythress
PF: J. Randle
C: M. Lee

With Wiljter, Willis, and Young coming off of the bench.

I don't see UK getting Wiggins, but I think they get Randle. Obviously could be wrong, but both of those guys have the potential to be "gamechangers" that I think they might lack otherwise. Obviously the Harrison twins are very good, but I'm not sure they have the playmaking ability of their past elite players that have lead them to Final Fours.

When you look at the Gators, I think there is a lot to compare between the two teams:

PG: Hill/Wilbekin
SG: Frazier/Graham
SF: Finney-Smith/Prather
PF: Walker/Yeguete
C: Young/Harris

The great thing about that team (which is under the assumption everyone returns) is that you could easily flip the subs for the starters and still have a great squad. Next years team will be much better on the boards, but not quite the defensive threat. I think we'll also be much more consistent offensively, given that we won't have to rely so much on the three.

Out of curiosity, which team would you all take next year?

Not shocking, but I like this thread already. I'll love watching the tournament, but honestly this thread topic is where my mind is already at.

First, lets look at what I think will be the UK roster as far as minute worthy players:

Harrison 6'5
Harrison 6'5, Goodwin 6'4
Poythress 6'8, Young 6'6
Randle 6'8, Wiltjer 6'9
WCS 7'0, Lee 6'9, Johnson 6'11

Just like last year's UK team, I expect a great defensive team. They wont' have a Davis/Noel shotblocker (although WCS isn't bad) but they'll be more oppressive at the guard positions.

I'll agree there isn't an Anthony Davis or John Wall, but there are 9 NBA draft picks, possibly all 1st rounders (who knows) and possibly 7 or 8 of which could be lottery picks. The only two that I don't know how much to expect from them next year are Wiltjer and Dakari Johnson. By any measurement, thats a talented team - a team whose second 5 probably has as many first round draft picks than any other teams starting 5.

The big question mark is experience. Next year will be the ultimate test of that. Cal's best teams have heavily relied on freshmen, but there have always been other guys with at least a year of experience. Now, Goodwin, Wiltjer, Poythress and WCS all have a year, but it wasn't tournament experience. So which kind of experience matters? Again, next year is the perfect test to at least provide us with one data point on this.

I'm not sure how Cal will work out playing time, but I dont' think we can point to his past of having a short bench as being an indication for next year. He's simply never had the options he'll have next year. This year, he needed every single player to buy in and work great together - and even develop individually - for the team to have success. Next year he's got a lot more margin for error. Poythress still passive? No big deal. Goodwin playing out of control? Wiltjer can't guard anyone? WCS in foul trouble? A deep bench helps. Cal has already been quoted as saying it will be his "best friend" next year and that this year it was his "worst nightmare."

I love Florida's team for next year as well. I think it will be better than this years team and I like this years team. I think Hill is a difference maker and what this team is missing. I also love the transfers. Walker I'm not so sure about as a freshmen. He could blow up and dominate or struggle. The good news is he isn't counted on to be perfect next year. Both UK and Florida will be very deep.

The comparison between the two teams comes down to, IMO, how much of UK's potential is reached. I honestly dont' care much about experience. We'll have a few sophomores. I expect some of you to pick next year's Florida team over UK's team and that's perfectly fine. But IMO UK's ceiling is higher. If UK lives up to about 50% of their potential (like this year), then I'll take Florida because I think their floor is higher than that.

However, I expect UK to be dominant next year. I've said for the last year (as has other UK fans) that I expect UK and UF to be two of the top teams in the nation all of next year. I just expect UK to be better. If Cal can get the team to gel like he has 3 of his 4 years at Kentucky, I don't think there's a team with as much elite talent or as much quality depth.

Who knows though. We'll know for sure in a year.

UFG8rGuy3283 · 03-18-2013, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REM08

Not shocking, but I like this thread already. I'll love watching the tournament, but honestly this thread topic is where my mind is already at.

First, lets look at what I think will be the UK roster as far as minute worthy players:

Harrison 6'5
Harrison 6'5, Goodwin 6'4
Poythress 6'8, Young 6'6
Randle 6'8, Wiltjer 6'9
WCS 7'0, Lee 6'9, Johnson 6'11

Just like last year's UK team, I expect a great defensive team. They wont' have a Davis/Noel shotblocker (although WCS isn't bad) but they'll be more oppressive at the guard positions.

I'll agree there isn't an Anthony Davis or John Wall, but there are 9 NBA draft picks, possibly all 1st rounders (who knows) and possibly 7 or 8 of which could be lottery picks. The only two that I don't know how much to expect from them next year are Wiltjer and Dakari Johnson. By any measurement, thats a talented team - a team whose second 5 probably has as many first round draft picks than any other teams starting 5.

The big question mark is experience. Next year will be the ultimate test of that. Cal's best teams have heavily relied on freshmen, but there have always been other guys with at least a year of experience. Now, Goodwin, Wiltjer, Poythress and WCS all have a year, but it wasn't tournament experience. So which kind of experience matters? Again, next year is the perfect test to at least provide us with one data point on this.

I'm not sure how Cal will work out playing time, but I dont' think we can point to his past of having a short bench as being an indication for next year. He's simply never had the options he'll have next year. This year, he needed every single player to buy in and work great together - and even develop individually - for the team to have success. Next year he's got a lot more margin for error. Poythress still passive? No big deal. Goodwin playing out of control? Wiltjer can't guard anyone? WCS in foul trouble? A deep bench helps. Cal has already been quoted as saying it will be his "best friend" next year and that this year it was his "worst nightmare."

I love Florida's team for next year as well. I think it will be better than this years team and I like this years team. I think Hill is a difference maker and what this team is missing. I also love the transfers. Walker I'm not so sure about as a freshmen. He could blow up and dominate or struggle. The good news is he isn't counted on to be perfect next year. Both UK and Florida will be very deep.

The comparison between the two teams comes down to, IMO, how much of UK's potential is reached. I honestly dont' care much about experience. We'll have a few sophomores. I expect some of you to pick next year's Florida team over UK's team and that's perfectly fine. But IMO UK's ceiling is higher. If UK lives up to about 50% of their potential (like this year), then I'll take Florida because I think their floor is higher than that.

However, I expect UK to be dominant next year. I've said for the last year (as has other UK fans) that I expect UK and UF to be two of the top teams in the nation all of next year. I just expect UK to be better. If Cal can get the team to gel like he has 3 of his 4 years at Kentucky, I don't think there's a team with as much elite talent or as much quality depth.

Who knows though. We'll know for sure in a year.

REM, are you guys hearing that several of your guys are returning?

I thought for sure based on "potential" that Goodwin and Poythress would be gone, along with Noel.

REM08 · 03-18-2013, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UFG8rGuy3283

REM, are you guys hearing that several of your guys are returning?

I thought for sure based on "potential" that Goodwin and Poythress would be gone, along with Noel.

What seems to be believed as of now is that Harrow will transfer and Noel will go pro, leaving Poythress, Goodwin and WCS returning. Evidently this came from a very good source, but is only supposedly accurate as if the decisions were made right now - and not necessarily a prediction for the future if things change.

All 3 returning players would be passing up first round draft status, with WCS and maybe even Poythress passing up late lottery.

Who knows but we'll find out soon.

**wci347** · 03-18-2013, 02:16 PM

Why would any of them come back? They will develop minimally because all of Cal's new recruits have been guaranteed starting positions.

UFG8rGuy3283 · 03-18-2013, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wci347

Why would any of them come back? They will develop minimally because all of Cal's new recruits have been guaranteed starting positions.

This was my thought. Seems like Goodwin would not stay due to reduced PT, especially. I could see the Harrisons throwing a fit.

Can Harrow transfer again??

REM08 · 03-18-2013, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wci347

Why would any of them come back? They will develop minimally because all of Cal's new recruits have been guaranteed starting positions.

Shows you know nothing about how Cal recruits. He never promises anything. Read every quote from every player he's gone after. Many (including the Harrison twins) are on the record saying he's the only coach who didn't make promises. The concept that Cal panders to players is a particularly naive and uninformed one.

Harrow is just a RS sophomore. I think he could transfer and waste a year of eligibility. I'm not saying he's gone for sure, just passing on what most of the talk is suggesting.

BEH · 03-18-2013, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wci347

Why would any of them come back? They will develop minimally because all of Cal's new recruits have been guaranteed starting positions.

I can't believe you really think this.

LetItFly · 03-18-2013, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BEH

I can't believe you really think this.

Its easy to believe. How many of cals mcd all american recruits are shining in the nba. Right now I would easily say Billy is wayyyyyyyyyyyyy better at developing players and getting them ready to succeed in the nba.

**gatorlife** · 03-18-2013, 05:25 PM

WCS's play the last few games has him as a lottery pick (as a seven footer). I think he goes after what happened to Noel...

kellgator · 03-18-2013, 05:39 PM

If REM is correct and only Noel leaves then UK certainly has a big talent/potential advantage. WCS is the key. He changes the game from a defensive standpoint. Maybe not as much as Noel, but a year from now I would expect him to have a similar affect on opposing teams. If he or any of the others go then the talent gap is much closer. Losing Harrow would be addition by subtraction IMHO. That guy was a disaster in many of the games I watched him play this year. I can't imagine either of the Harrison twins not being a significant upgrade over Harrow.

As for us, the only position we'll take a step back is at the 4 spot. Walker will certainly upgrade the athleticism of the position, but Murphy was a match up nightmare that stretched opposing defenses out of position. So Walker and Yeugette will have big shoes to fill on the offensive end. Defensively they will be an upgrade, so maybe it will be a wash in the end. The combination of Young and Harris at the 5 will be a big upgrade over Young and an out of position Murphy and Yeugette. Harris is a big strong dude that cleans the glass and blocks/alters shots. Both of them will be able to stay fresh and out of foul trouble. Finney-Smith is long and athletic at 6'8" with a scorers mentality. He, Prather, and (hopefully) a bulked up Devon Walker will be a huge upgrade at the 3 position. If this were last year I would say the loss of Boynton would be a serious downgrade. But the reality is that the Boynton of this year, while still a significant loss, isn't as big as I would have thought. Frasier is much bigger and shoots much better. His defense isn't on the same level yet, but he's only a freshman. I would expect Wilbekin to share minutes with Frasier at the 2 when Kasey Hill is in the game and slide over to the point when Hill is on the bench. So at worst this position is a tie, but if Frasier picks up his defense then it will be a plus. I love Wilbekin's defense, and his outside shot and penetration has gotten much better, but he is a guy who has learned to be an effective PG on the collegiate level. Whereas, Hill is natural PG who routinely breaks down defenses and creates scoring opportunities for those around him. He makes the game easier for the bigs and perimeter shooters. So while I expect Scottie to begin the year as the starting PG, I expect he'll finish the year in the similar role to last year where he splits time at the point and off guard. Maybe he slides to the starting 2 guard spot if his shot continues to improve and Frasier's defense doesn't progress. How his ego handles that could be a key to our season. Regardless, I look for the PG position to be a big improvement.

As for whether UK of UF will be the better team next year, it's so hard to predict. UK will be more talented, but they were more talented this year, especially with Noel. So the answer to the question can only be provided by UK. UF will be a great team. I think our UK friends will agree on that. UK could be a good team, a great team, or the best team in the country. There's just no way of knowing.

GatorLurker · 03-18-2013, 05:47 PM

A lot of chicken counting before they are hatched going on here. And some of the eggs (Randle) haven't even been layed.

And we don't know which chickens fly the coop.

TampaGatorFan · 03-18-2013, 06:17 PM

Folks, we're still playing this season...it's WAAAAAY too early to worry about next season.

gator2109 · 03-18-2013, 06:20 PM

I would probably be posting about next season if I was in the NIT too..

TampaGatorFan · 03-18-2013, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gator2109

I would probably be posting about next season if I was in the NIT too..

**tampajack1** · 03-18-2013, 07:10 PM

We need Patric Young to return and Chris Walker to qualify. Also, it would be great if we could sign Mikyl Mcintosh, who looks to me to be an absolute stud. If all of this happens, we could be the equal of Kentucky even if they get Randle. We would go 2 deep at each position with much better athleticism than we have this year. We likely would not have as good perimeter shooting with the loss of Murphy and Rosario, but we would be able to run and defend at a furious pace for 40 minutes a game.

Gator8239 · 03-18-2013, 07:45 PM

Two 6'5 guards in the back court for UK? We better press the ever living life out of those two guys. That is just too tall to be a press breaking back court. Average height of a point guard in the NBA is 6'1. The only NBA point guard close to 6'5 if John Wall at 6'4.

Kasey Hill should give those guys fits in a press. Unfortunately, if they do get in a half court set they can just shoot over Hill like his name is Erving Walker.

UFG8rGuy3283 · 03-18-2013, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tampajack1

We need Patric Young to return and Chris Walker to qualify. Also, it would be great if we could sign Mikyl Mcintosh, who looks to me to be an absolute stud. If all of this happens, we could be the equal of Kentucky even if they get Randle. We would go 2 deep at each position with much better athleticism than we have this year. We likely would not have as good perimeter shooting with the loss of Murphy and Rosario, but we would be able to run and defend at a furious pace for 40 minutes a game.

Tampa, I've been seeing a lot about McIntosh recently and he's really been blowing up due to his athleticism and ability to get to the bucket, but so far have seen mainly mid majors and UCLA and Miami in the mix. I haven't seen anywhere that we are interested. I'm guessing you have heard otherwise?