Gator Country

tebowharvin · 03-20-2013, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madgator

So basically, the only way the Gators can win the title is if you are clearly the best team in the country. otherwise, the odds of us winning 3-5 games in a row in which we are evenly matched is extremely unlikely.

Wow

madgator · 03-20-2013, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

For all intents and purposes 50/50. There are some skills that tilt it in your direction (FT shooting, go to guy, defense, 3 pt shooting, as an examples), and not all close games are of the same directionality. For example UF is more likely to be behind in a close game than ahead. Plus Billy does do worse in close games, which makes sense given his skill set. Overall it may mean we should win 4 or 4.5 of 10 close games. Not significantly different than anyone else.

First point.....why?

second point.....what is his "skill set?" I'm not understanding what you are saying.

madgator · 03-20-2013, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

A lot if people here "know about basketball," but cannot wrap their heads around statistical analysis. "In-game" coaching is not even a real phenomenon. You just keep reminding your players to run the system both sides, hope you knock down open shots, and work the refs a bit.

It's not that simple. A good game coach can be worth 6-10 points in set plays per game.

Tupac used to bring this point up all the time and it was extremely legitimate. We RARELY get easy baskets off a time out.

madgator · 03-20-2013, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

Wow

coming from the guy who is sold by the "it's just bad luck" analysis

Matthanuf06 · 03-20-2013, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madgator

First point.....why?

second point.....what is his "skill set?" I'm not understanding what you are saying.

The Alabama games are a good example. We are an elite team, so we are more likely to push our positive close games to not a close game anymore territory.

Billy is known for his weaker set pieces, end of game plays, etc. He just isn't known as an elite "in game" type coach. Plus he has always been a "team" type coach, which is great for 98% of the game, but end games require more individual type play. He doesn't build teams that way

madgator · 03-20-2013, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

The Alabama games are a good example. We are an elite team, so we are more likely to push our positive close games to not a close game anymore territory.

Billy is known for his weaker set pieces, end of game plays, etc. He just isn't known as an elite "in game" type coach. Plus he has always been a "team" type coach, which is great for 98% of the game, but end games require more individual type play. He doesn't build teams that way

So pretty much....we agree?

tebowharvin · 03-20-2013, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madgator

It's not that simple. A good game coach can be worth 6-10 points in set plays per game.

Tupac used to bring this point up all the time and it was extremely legitimate. We RARELY get easy baskets off a time out.

Most teams RARELY get baskets out of timeouts.

Matthanuf06 · 03-20-2013, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

Most teams RARELY get baskets out of timeouts.

We are talking about whether you win 55% of one possession games versus 45%. It's extremely marginal. Hence why Pomeroy likes Florida. We are less likely to have those types of games even though we are slightly more likely to lose them.

NitroSmoke · 03-20-2013, 02:33 PM

Anybody hear Dykes railing the Colonials coach last night for calling a TO deep in his own corner with 5 secs left on the shot clock? Then they convert a perfect play because Poythress wasnt guarding the ball with his shoulders square to the basket? I thought that was a great example of a coach knowing another teams weakness and exploiting it.

Matthanuf06 · 03-20-2013, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madgator

So basically, the only way the Gators can win the title is if you are clearly the best team in the country. otherwise, the odds of us winning 3-5 games in a row in which we are evenly matched is extremely unlikely.

You can say that about any team. He picked us because we are more likely to have less close games than other teams. Louisville is probably marginally better than a split in a bucket margin games whereas we are marginally worse. The less times you have to flip the coin the better off you are.

tebowharvin · 03-20-2013, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

We are talking about whether you win 55% of one possession games versus 45%. It's extremely marginal. Hence why Pomeroy likes Florida. We are less likely to have those types of games even though we are slightly more likely to lose them.

If it truly is only "slightly," could it not just be variance?

SmootyGator · 03-20-2013, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NitroSmoke

Anybody hear Dykes railing the Colonials coach last night for calling a TO deep in his own corner with 5 secs left on the shot clock? Then they convert a perfect play because Poythress wasnt guarding the ball with his shoulders square to the basket? I thought that was a great example of a coach knowing another teams weakness and exploiting it.

You think the other team's coach knew Poythress was going to do that? (Serious question)

UFreak · 03-20-2013, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SmootyGator

You think the other team's coach knew Poythress was going to do that? (Serious question)

Maybe. Maybe he picked it up on film while scouting???

tebowharvin · 03-20-2013, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SmootyGator

You think the other team's coach knew Poythress was going to do that? (Serious question)

Lol, right?

NitroSmoke · 03-20-2013, 02:40 PM

THey might have with scouting and tape. Not 100% of course. But I think if he didnt, they had another quick hit shot inside that same play. I didnt slow it down and look, but he spent the first part of his timeout making sure that the ball was going to be taken in from that exact spot.

Matthanuf06 · 03-20-2013, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

If it truly is only "slightly," could it not just be variance?

Whether we actually win or lose those games in the tournament would amount to natural variation due to the sample size. If the sample size was appropriately large you'd definitely see variations from 50/50 due to mainly differences in skill.

madgator · 03-20-2013, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

Most teams RARELY get baskets out of timeouts.

ok....if you say so

tebowharvin · 03-20-2013, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madgator

ok....if you say so

Same to you.

madgator · 03-20-2013, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

Same to you.

I can't debate a topic with someone who ignores the existence of something that happens around a half a dozen times a game.

and I'm not the only stating the point. Matthanu gave a very good explanation why Donovans teams do not have success on set plays.

this point wasn't created out of thin air. Perhaps you don't think that points come off of timeouts because you watch a lot of UF games.

in a good portion of the rest of the basketball world.....it happens

so I must conclude that you are either ignorant on the subject or being obtuse

InstiGATOR1 · 03-20-2013, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madgator

So basically, the only way the Gators can win the title is if you are clearly the best team in the country. otherwise, the odds of us winning 3-5 games in a row in which we are evenly matched is extremely unlikely.

So what? That is basically what Pomeroy says. This is true of every team. Thus every team has a low probability of winning the tourney. But someone must.