Gator Country

ofmgator · 03-20-2013, 01:13 PM

It's very simple , if we're on our game we'll generally win, if not then things are up in the air. When we hit three's we're fine if not we're not

MaceoP · 03-20-2013, 01:23 PM

6 out of our 7 losses we were trailing with 2 minutes to go in the game.. the exception was Arizona... For the most part, the games we lost were games where we were either behind most of the game, or lost the lead during the 2nd half.

It's really not the case we are going into end of game scenarios with the lead and folding.

Both Bama games we were losing into the 2nd half.. I guess if Bama didn't go foul happy at the end, we would have only won by single digits, and this whole discussion would be moot.

trufloridagator · 03-20-2013, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madgator

Donovan is 58-78 in his career in games decided by 5 or less points.

What about other coaches?

We have been over this stat before & most coaches will have average to poor records in close games because they're winning the rest of them by a ton.

That stat includes games where you're down 6-15 points (or more) and you end up losing by only 5 as well. It's just a bad stat.

madgator · 03-20-2013, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

That is simply 10 coin flips gone wrong... How is that ouch? Jesus Christ, help this board...

10 flips to break even

if he is to be at 65% positive clip, then its like 30

UFreak · 03-20-2013, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaceoP

6 out of our 7 losses we were trailing with 2 minutes to go in the game.. the exception was Arizona... For the most part, the games we lost were games where we were either behind most of the game, or lost the lead during the 2nd half.

It's really not the case we are going into end of game scenarios with the lead and folding.

Both Bama games we were losing into the 2nd half.. I guess if Bama didn't go foul happy at the end, we would have only won by single digits, and this whole discussion would be moot.

True, but for us it's been the last five minutes in close games where things have gone a bit sour for us. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I bet we had more leads with 5 left to play.

**GothamGator** · 03-20-2013, 01:39 PM

Ken Pomeroy had the best description of the issue when he said this.

Quote:

Maybe if Florida had played worse in some of their 26 double-digit wins, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

Look, I do think we've struggled to win close games, but more importantly, we haven't played our strongest basketball in recent games. Systems like Ken Pom's weigh every game the same whether played in November or early March. But, college basketball is largely about how much a team learns and improves over the course of a year. I think our high ratings are too much the result of how we were playing early in the season, rather than how we are playing now.

madgator · 03-20-2013, 01:41 PM

Coach K is 136-111 (55%) in games decided by 5 or less

Roy Williams is 90-72 (55%)

Bob Knight was 125-100 (55%)

Rick Pitino is 92-90

Dean Smith was 77-48 (62%)

Larry Brown 45-23 (66%)

Lute Olson 115-113

Jim Calhoun 158-108 (59%)

Jim Boeheim 188-110 (63%)

Dale Brown 73-70

Tom Izzo 72-61 (54%)

NOT ONE of these guys is below 50%.....let alone at 42%. In fact, most are above 55%. Which the stats show to be the standard of the truly great ones.

I love how this is being chalked up as "luck."

tebowharvin · 03-20-2013, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GothamGator

Ken Pomeroy had the best description of the issue when he said this.

Look, I do think we've struggled to win close games, but more importantly, we haven't played our strongest basketball in recent games. Systems like Ken Pom's weigh every game the same whether played in November or early March. But, college basketball is largely about how much a team learns and improves over the course of a year. I think our high ratings are too much the result of how we were playing early in the season, rather than how we are playing now.

This is not true. He weights more recent games.

tebowharvin · 03-20-2013, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madgator

Coach K is 136-111 (55%) in games decided by 5 or less

Roy Williams is 90-72 (55%)

Favorable refereeing works out as luck.

madgator · 03-20-2013, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

Favorable refereeing works out as luck.

many people (even Gators) recognize that Donovans biggest weakness is as a "in-game coach."

I think this stat illustrates that point.

does that mean that overall he is not one of the best coaches in the game today? Absolutely not. Does it not mean that he is the best coach for our program? No. Does it not mean that he is not a Hall of Fame worthy coach? Not at all.

But he is not perfect......he just is not a great game coach

tebowharvin · 03-20-2013, 01:53 PM

You don't win championships by winning close. You win championships by winning. Billy's philosophy is the best in this sport. You REALLY think there is anyone better?

Jonas · 03-20-2013, 01:54 PM

Basically you should be about 50/50 in games that come down to the wire because variance is going to impact the income significantly. Billy's record is slightly lower than expected, but still inline with variance. The other elite coaches are inline with variance as well.

Also who gives a shit about that stat? I think his tournament win percentage is much more important.

Jonas · 03-20-2013, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madgator

many people (even Gators) recognize that Donovans biggest weakness is as a "in-game coach."

I think this stat illustrates that point.

does that mean that overall he is not one of the best coaches in the game today? Absolutely not. Does it not mean that he is the best coach for our program? No. Does it not mean that he is not a Hall of Fame worthy coach? Not at all.

But he is not perfect......he just is not a great game coach

Maybe dumb gator fans think he isn't a good in game coach. And no that stat does not illustrate that.

tebowharvin · 03-20-2013, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonas

Basically you should be about 50/50 in games that come down to the wire because variance is going to impact the income significantly. Billy's record is slightly lower than expected, but still inline with variance. The other elite coaches are inline with variance as well.

Also who gives a shit about that stat? I think his tournament win percentage is much more important.

This, only I would change one thing: I think his consistently high rankings of teams is more important. As the Gator basketball tradition grows, so will their luck (refereeing) in close games. Billy may not be a great "in-game" coach because you cherry-picked some statistics, but he believes in a greater purpose and project. And he is succeeding; win or lose this tourney.

madgator · 03-20-2013, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonas

Maybe dumb gator fans think he isn't a good in game coach. And no that stat does not illustrate that.

No, pretty much anyone I know who knows anything about basketball knows this. Those who are stubborn with their orange and blue glasses and think that Donovan is perfect don't realize it. Does it make him any less of a great coach for what he is? Not at all.

and yes, close games are so often resulted by coaching decisions. time-outs, set plays, defensive adjustments, substitutions all factor.

can a guy miss FTs? sure. can luck play in? yep. bad reffing? ok

but to say that Donovans record at 42% is "inline" with the standard set by hall of fame coaches is a delusion.

madgator · 03-20-2013, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

This, only I would change one thing: I think his consistently high rankings of teams is more important. As the Gator basketball tradition grows, so will their luck (refereeing) in close games. Billy may not be a great "in-game" coach because you cherry-picked some statistics, but he believes in a greater purpose and project. And he is succeeding; win or lose this tourney.

I agree and like I said....I still believe he is a great/hall of fame coach. but he is not without this slight.

no one is perfect...

Matthanuf06 · 03-20-2013, 02:06 PM

Many of you aren't understand KenPoms point. It isn't that we are good in close games, it is that we are really damn good because we don't have many close games.

It is safe to say BillyDs team are below avg in close games, and the last few years tack on a bit of an unlucky streak and it results in a terrible close game record.

I think it can really be summed to this. In the tournament You are better off going with the team that will probably blow out 3-4 teams and then have a 45/55 win/loss ratio in close games than a team that may blow out 2-3 teams but have a 60/40 win/loss ratio in close games.

The mark of a good team is really how badly you beat teams, not whether you are moderately better or worse in close gamds

madgator · 03-20-2013, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

Many of you aren't understand KenPoms point. It isn't that we are good in close games, it is that we are really damn good because we don't have many close games.

It is safe to say BillyDs team are below avg in close games, and the last few years tack on a bit of an unlucky streak and it results in a terrible close game record.

I think it can really be summed to this. In the tournament You are better off going with the team that will probably blow out 3-4 teams and then have a 45/55 win/loss ratio in close games than a team that may blow out 2-3 teams but have a 60/40 win/loss ratio in close games.

The mark of a good team is really how badly you beat teams, not whether you are moderately better or worse in close gamds

So basically, the only way the Gators can win the title is if you are clearly the best team in the country. otherwise, the odds of us winning 3-5 games in a row in which we are evenly matched is extremely unlikely.

tebowharvin · 03-20-2013, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madgator

No, pretty much anyone I know who knows anything about basketball knows this. Those who are stubborn with their orange and blue glasses and think that Donovan is perfect don't realize it. Does it make him any less of a great coach for what he is? Not at all.

and yes, close games are so often resulted by coaching decisions. time-outs, set plays, defensive adjustments, substitutions all factor.

can a guy miss FTs? sure. can luck play in? yep. bad reffing? ok

but to say that Donovans record at 42% is "inline" with the standard set by hall of fame coaches is a delusion.

A lot if people here "know about basketball," but cannot wrap their heads around statistical analysis. "In-game" coaching is not even a real phenomenon. You just keep reminding your players to run the system both sides, hope you knock down open shots, and work the refs a bit.

Matthanuf06 · 03-20-2013, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonas

Basically you should be about 50/50 in games that come down to the wire because variance is going to impact the income significantly. Billy's record is slightly lower than expected, but still inline with variance. The other elite coaches are inline with variance as well.

Also who gives a shit about that stat? I think his tournament win percentage is much more important.

For all intents and purposes 50/50. There are some skills that tilt it in your direction (FT shooting, go to guy, defense, 3 pt shooting, as an examples), and not all close games are of the same directionality. For example UF is more likely to be behind in a close game than ahead. Plus Billy does do worse in close games, which makes sense given his skill set. Overall it may mean we should win 4 or 4.5 of 10 close games. Not significantly different than anyone else.