The tournament requires a team to get hot, period. Only a team that is a huge talent mismatch can survive an off night, and those mismatches are pretty much over after round 1 (I refuse to call those play-in games round 1.) UK had that talent advantage last year, but I don't see anyone like that this year. So UF is as solid a long-run pick as any. In fact, if you could guarantee me a hot UF team for six straight, I'd take them all the way and then buy a new driver because I'd be so confident that I'm going to have a few extra Benjamin's in three weeks.
But of course that guarantee can't be made and that's the beauty of the tournament. I love it.
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