Gator Country

**RealGatorFan** · 03-18-2013, 09:05 PM

Watching this right now so I hope I can cover it all:

Using an advanced computer prediction tool they are predicting each game right now:

1. Florida has a 100% chance to win Game 1; the only non-#1 seed to get that %
2. Minnesota has a 69% of beating UCLA
3. Florida has an 85% chance of beating Minnesota in Round #2; highest seed to get that.
4. Ole Miss 89% chance of losing their first game. Wisc has a very good perimeter defense that will bruise Henderson into submission. God I want to watch that game if true.

If you want to see the rest, it's on ESPN2. I'll try to update as they continue on.

**RealGatorFan** · 03-18-2013, 09:09 PM

Florida with a 77% chance of beating Georgetown to advance to the Elite 8...Wow.

gatorbogey · 03-18-2013, 09:21 PM

we probably had an 85% chance of beating ole miss too

**RealGatorFan** · 03-18-2013, 09:26 PM

They gave kudos to Billy for getting a team of virtually no one to get this far. Said we have no players in any stat Top 10 yet as a team are very good defensively. The catch is how the backcourt shoots. Key is Rosario (they say).

**RealGatorFan** · 03-18-2013, 09:31 PM

Florida over Kansas to advance to the FF...68%. Gonzaga with a 51% chance to beat Ohio St to advance. Indiana in the FF too so that's who we would play next.

gtr2x · 03-18-2013, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RealGatorFan

They gave kudos to Billy for getting a team of virtually no one to get this far. Said we have no players in any stat Top 10 yet as a team are very good defensively. The catch is how the backcourt shoots. Key is Rosario (they say).

Not buying that. Rosario played well in last game and we lost. This team needs at least 2 guys to step up.

**RealGatorFan** · 03-18-2013, 09:38 PM

Well, they were gushing over Murphy and Young so I guess there is the second and third men. I would say one or both of them have to step it up and take the pressure off the back court. They think they can. So their FF is Louisville - Gonzaga and Florida - Indiana.

**RealGatorFan** · 03-18-2013, 09:40 PM

Notice 3 #1s and the lone #3:-) Of course, Seth and the other guys there said their brackets do not resemble this predictor. They did say the FL-Indiana game would be one of the best in the tourney...very high scoring.

ufgator4ever · 03-18-2013, 09:44 PM

Man. Hope the team isn't reading this stuff. They've lost several games to worse teams than what they'll see after game 1, so not sure where these % are coming from.

**Emmitto** · 03-18-2013, 09:45 PM

Too chalky, although I'd take it.

**RealGatorFan** · 03-18-2013, 09:51 PM

I doubt they are reading this. Billy probably banned them. But if they are:

THIS IS ALL HYPOTHETICAL GUYS!!!!! IT'S FOR ENTERTAINMENT VALUE ONLY.

But as a fan, this is fun stuff but we really have to be playing extremely well to get this far. I don't know if we can but we have the ability to do it. If they believe in what Billy is teaching them they can win it all. This is a tourney of 1 and done so it isn't about the best team winning it all; it's all about surviving each game.

**RealGatorFan** · 03-18-2013, 09:59 PM

They have a Louisville - Florida championship with Florida with a 61% chance of beating them. Then the guys went nuts saying no way Florida gets to the Final 4. Seth says Pitino is the best single game coach ever. He can beat you with his team and then beat you with your team.

**RealGatorFan** · 03-18-2013, 10:00 PM

This software is a statistical model using all sorts of data so take it for what it is. Statistically, we could beat anyone but we've seen a few stinkers. I will add that we will lose any game where we shoot more 3s than 2s.

xenythx · 03-18-2013, 10:05 PM

We put up historical efficiency numbers in the first half of the season. That's why all the models and predictors love us.

HayGator · 03-18-2013, 10:05 PM

So a gauntlet of Minn, Georgetown, Kansas, Indiana and then Louisville to win it all. Yep, sounds about right.

trufloridagator · 03-18-2013, 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xenythx

We put up historical efficiency numbers in the first half of the season. That's why all the models and predictors love us.

Ya but keep in mind the data also includes our poor play as of late. That said the sample is a bit skewed because we played a lot of teams that won a lot of games like MTSU, Bama, UK, UT, Ole miss, Wisc, Marq, etc that raised our SOS but caught some of them playing worse than they are now or arent tourney teams at all or barely are.

Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry

gatorfansrule · 03-18-2013, 11:10 PM

Statistically we have a very, very good team. The only thing stopping these guys is themselves. All the games we have lost (except when Arkansas shot lights out) were games we gave away. If they are focused, intense and avoid bonehead plays then they can beat anyone.

HayGator · 03-18-2013, 11:28 PM

Billy is one of the best tournament coaches. I'll leave it at that.

**Gatuar** · 03-18-2013, 11:39 PM

Lunardi picked Louisville over UF in champ game...no computer and another "expert" had same bracket on panel of 5

Matthanuf06 · 03-19-2013, 12:28 AM

We need to crush the teams we are supposed to. Blow out one of the better teams. Then win a few close games, hopefully one or two in the 5-10 pt range and not come down to the final possession.

IMO we are the best team in the nation for 35 mins and the 30th team in the nation for 5. We can go very far as long as we minimize the times those 5 minutes matter and if Lady Luck is on our side when it does matter.

Lets not act like we have a 0% chance of winning a close game.