Nate Silver- Election Expert picks Gators in South

[tgatorstew]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-bask...ds-nate-silver

This guy predicted the electoral outcome in all 50 states last presidential election and only missed one state in 2008. Based on his numbers, he picked Louisville, Florida, Indiana and Gonzaga in the Final four. He give a statistical breakdown of each teams chance.

[ovillegator]

Us over Kansas... interesting.

I know this team could get there... or not.

I'll cheer come game time 100% -- if the players bring the same energy I will, they will win!

[orangeblueorangeblue]

Sports are far more prone to short-term anomalies than longer-form statistical analysis (baseball tendencies, etc.) or elections.

Hope he's right again, though.

[NorthCaptivaGator]

I feel so much better now

[BengermanV]

Silver is the best of the best at this stuff. I agree with the experts in that I feel we have as good of a chance as anyone. But we are so prone to cold streaks that I'd probably take Kansas or Michigan over us right now.

[tgatorstew]

It seems that the statistical nerds (Pomeroy, Silver) prefer us over most T.V. analysts. Only one guy on CBS has us going to the final four and I don't believe any ESPN guys picked us. Probably has a lot to do with us freezing up in these close game loses. We seem to be attractive statistically, but do not pass the analyst eye test. If Billy can get these kids to relax and live in the moment then I like our chances.

[born2beagator]

This team is perfectly capable of winning it all if it gets hot.

[allig8ralli]

I am hoping that the win or go home mentality will fire them up

[corpgator]

Pomeroy gives us nearly even odds (48%) to win the South.

[gatorich]

Interesting.
Looking at his percentages it looks like the West bracket is the widest open with his favorite, Gonzaga, only at 33%. The South bracket is the closest between his top two teams, Florida at 37% and Kansas at 32%. The other two brackets are heavily toward his favorites, Louisville in the Midwest at 53% and Indiana in the East at 51%.
Florida can beat anyone they face but getting by Kansas will tough. This year's tourney is more wide open than any in a long time.

[GatorKWM]

Originally Posted by allig8ralli

I am hoping that the win or go home mentality will fire them up

That's what Sunday was, and it didn't seem to make any difference. Billy was really fired up on a few timeouts, but the team didn't respond.

[tommyuf21]

Something to consider is the likelihood that Kansas could very well be knocked off before we have the chance to meet them.

Of all the one seeds, they have the worst loss this season to TCU. All of our losses have been to above average to good teams.

[csugator]

Originally Posted by GatorKWM

That's what Sunday was, and it didn't seem to make any difference. Billy was really fired up on a few timeouts, but the team didn't respond.

Remember, the conference tourney is a different beast. 3 to 4 days of playing in a row. The NCAA is spread out - 2 games in 3 days, then a week break. Repeat. Maybe that will help these guys stay fresh. We move a lot on both sides of the ball. This means back to back to back games are tough. The NCAA tourney is more suited to our style. I am optimistic.

[hastings15]

FWIW, after the first week of the NFL playoffs this year, Nate Silver predicted a Patriots - Seahawks Super Bowl.

[orangeblueorangeblue]

Originally Posted by hastings15

FWIW, after the first week of the NFL playoffs this year, Nate Silver predicted a Patriots - Seahawks Super Bowl.

Yeah, his models are not as successful in short-term, and I believe he's admitted as much.

Like most models, it benefits from a lot of data over a long amount of time.

[tgatorstew]

I think the point of all this is that we are statistically a top 3 team. However, the intangibles might be a little lacking. We need someone to step up and make big shots, we need to handle adversity better, and finally we need to not freeze up when the game gets tight. How Billy can change the team's course in that regard might be difficult, but if anyone can do it, he can!

[REM08]

I dropped in to debate the merits of pre-destination, but it appears I made the wrong assumption about the thread title.

Still interesting though. I gotta admit, I'm having a hard time picking between Kansas and Florida.

[Jonas]

I think football is also different because there aren't anywhere near as many games as in baseball or basketball.

[lean_gator]

More worried about Minnesota, GTown or VCU than Kansas if we make that far and have to play them. They don't have a true point guard can be easily pressed.

[sevmonster]

complete article http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ding-favorite/