Are we overachieving?

[GatorMcCluskey]

Originally Posted by Jonas

I think there is some ambiguity in what "overachieving" means. We definitely haven't beaten teams we shouldn't have, but we might be overachieving in the sense that we don't have elite talent, but are a top 10-15 team. Basically, Billy has gotten the most out of the talent on the roster better than most coaches would have.

agreed - this roster has some fairly obvious issues. There's no above average playmaking guard, there's not much interior scoring or rebounding, and we don't have a go-to scorer who can get buckets when we need them like the last play today.

but our team chemistry and defensive effort were outstanding when we were playing so well during the first half of the year. We were able to be a team where the whole is a lot better than the sum of our parts during that run, but injuries have really sapped the chemistry, and our effort (especially in the second half of games) has gone downhill as the year's gone on.

we're finally healthy again, and I thought that the Alabama game yesterday might have finally gotten our guys to turn the corner and get back to that early season cohesion, but today's loss blew that up. At this point I'm just not sure that we'll be able to play at the kind of high level we'll need to make a run in the tournament.

[CSpantheGatorFan]

Originally Posted by Jonas

I think there is some ambiguity in what "overachieving" means. We definitely haven't beaten teams we shouldn't have, but we might be overachieving in the sense that we don't have elite talent, but are a top 10-15 team. Basically, Billy has gotten the most out of the talent on the roster better than most coaches would have.

I don't see what is ambiguous about the term overachieveing. It sports it means you accomplish more than you should have based on your ability. In a team sport, I would include coaching a part of it. Can anyone really say we have done that? Games like Arkansas happen and a team is going to lose a close one every now and then, but we have done everything in our power to lose to clearly inferior teams several times and not willed ourselves to a win in any of the close ones. That is not overachieving.

I ask the question then (Since our ranking was 13 before the Ole Miss loss), are there really 12 teams with more talent than us? We have a starting lineup of 3 McDonalds All-Americans, a top 100 player in Murphy, and an under the radar recruit (Who jumped a class coming out of HS). We have top 100 players like Frazier and Prather coming off the bench. Yeguette is a great defender with some offensive skills. Ogbueze was a top 50 type player and doesn't even play. All of our top 7-8 seven have shown they can score and play defense at this level. They are at worst good college players. If these guys were truly overachieving, there wouldn't be questions about them being NBA caliber players. Most teams though, would kill to have 2-3 of our starters. Regardless though, this is a college program, not an NBA all-star team. We have more than enough talent to beat anybody really and win consistantly as we have done for the most part despite our losses. Also, keep in mind we have something that very few teams have in our experience. There are no talent/experience issues with this team like there were in the few years following the National Championship seasons. There are some serious confidence and execution issues however.

I think some people think because no one or two players have inflated stats due to the team sharing the ball that no one player is an elite player (Which to me, could be considered a vague term). If Rosario was at Rutgers, still jacking up 30 shots a game and scoring in the mid-high teens a game (He actually has already done this), would he b an elite player? ? If Murphy shot 20 shots a game, then what? If Young (Who is shooting slightly over 60%) got more touches, how many more jump hooks would he have made? I think our players talent is being dismissed in a way because they play so unselfishly.

[gatorump]

Bruce Pearl was an overachieving grill master. If he didn't "overachieve" at his cookouts maybe he would be getting ready for his team to underacheive in the tourney again. However, Pearl tended to underacheive the most when it came to telling the truth to investigators.

[UFG8rGuy3283]

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

Feel bad for this kid. Very talented yet team-first kid, GREAT Gator, but the man just cannot shoot from outside in an offense that really wants the 2-guard to do that well...

I think many underestimate just how much playing next to Beal helped elevate Kenny's play last year. His shot selection this year is not as solid, in part because many of the open looks he used to get were due to Beal being such a threat.

I, as you, feel bad for KB in a sense. We criticize the team for not having a go to guy at the end of games and when Kenny tries to be that guy/senior leader, he gets blasted. I know some of those shots haven't been great looks, but I will give.him credit for at least trying to step up and be that guy.

[InstiGATOR1]

UF was preseason number 10 in each poll. That works out to a 3 seed in the NCAA tourney. UF is a 3 seed in the NCAA tourney.

Winning the SEC might be a surprise as I don't think UF was picked to do so. That of course is more a matter of UK not being as good as the "experts" thought preseason as much as UF doing anything.

[madgator]

I think we have achieved exactly what was expected. What were we? Preseason #9?

So we won the conference regular season, lost the tournament in the finals, and got a #3 seed going into the tournament.


Seems like our end of regular season results are perfectly in line with what was expected in the pre-season analysis.

[trufloridagator]

Originally Posted by madgator

I think we have achieved exactly what was expected. What were we? Preseason #9?

So we won the conference regular season, lost the tournament in the finals, and got a #3 seed going into the tournament.

Seems like our end of regular season results are perfectly in line with what was expected in the pre-season analysis.

Yup. If we win the first 2 and play a good game, win or lose vs georgetown (most likely), we'll be still right in line.

3 straight elite 8s would be pretty incredible tho

Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry

[akaGatorhoops]

I would disagree with Bruce. Though no standout player, our top 7 players will stack up well with any others in the country.
We have some flaws, but every team does. This is a very talented team.

[madgator]

Originally Posted by akaGatorhoops

I would disagree with Bruce. Though no standout player, our top 7 players will stack up well with any others in the country.
We have some flaws, but every team does. This is a very talented team.

we have great team chemistry, we play disciplined on both sides of the court, we give 100%.

The problem is that we have warts all over the place. But we are still a very good team and go as far as anybody.

My expectation for this season has always been sweet 16. if that happens....I'm content.

[akaGatorhoops]

Originally Posted by madgator

we have great team chemistry, we play disciplined on both sides of the court, we give 100%.

The problem is that we have warts all over the place. But we are still a very good team and go as far as anybody.

My expectation for this season has always been sweet 16. if that happens....I'm content.

Very muted expectations for a team returning so much from an elite 8, and near final 4 run a season ago. At least some of these "warts all over the place" had to be there a season ago, right?
And while we lost beal, we do have Yeguete in this post season--- as well as a markedly improved rosario and a solid contributing freshman.

[gottapanda]

Originally Posted by CSpantheGatorFan

I don't see what is ambiguous about the term overachieveing. It sports it means you accomplish more than you should have based on your ability. In a team sport, I would include coaching a part of it. Can anyone really say we have done that? Games like Arkansas happen and a team is going to lose a close one every now and then, but we have done everything in our power to lose to clearly inferior teams several times and not willed ourselves to a win in any of the close ones. That is not overachieving.

I ask the question then (Since our ranking was 13 before the Ole Miss loss), are there really 12 teams with more talent than us? We have a starting lineup of 3 McDonalds All-Americans, a top 100 player in Murphy, and an under the radar recruit (Who jumped a class coming out of HS). We have top 100 players like Frazier and Prather coming off the bench. Yeguette is a great defender with some offensive skills. Ogbueze was a top 50 type player and doesn't even play. All of our top 7-8 seven have shown they can score and play defense at this level. They are at worst good college players. If these guys were truly overachieving, there wouldn't be questions about them being NBA caliber players. Most teams though, would kill to have 2-3 of our starters. Regardless though, this is a college program, not an NBA all-star team. We have more than enough talent to beat anybody really and win consistantly as we have done for the most part despite our losses. Also, keep in mind we have something that very few teams have in our experience. There are no talent/experience issues with this team like there were in the few years following the National Championship seasons. There are some serious confidence and execution issues however.

I think some people think because no one or two players have inflated stats due to the team sharing the ball that no one player is an elite player (Which to me, could be considered a vague term). If Rosario was at Rutgers, still jacking up 30 shots a game and scoring in the mid-high teens a game (He actually has already done this), would he b an elite player? ? If Murphy shot 20 shots a game, then what? If Young (Who is shooting slightly over 60%) got more touches, how many more jump hooks would he have made? I think our players talent is being dismissed in a way because they play so unselfishly.

Well, since you asked:

1. Gonzaga -- #13, #66 players per draftexpress
2. Louisville -- #24, #46
3. Kansas -- #2, #31, #97
4. Indiana -- #4, #7
5. Miami -- #40, #63
6. Duke -- #12, #60, 72,#93
7. Ohio State -- #57, #86
8. Georgetown -- #8
9. Michigan St -- #23, #68, #69
10. New Mexico -- nobody
11. Michigan -- #10, #20, #80
12. Kansas St -- nobody
13. Saint Louis -- nobody
14. Florida -- #39, #58
15. Marquette -- nobody
16. Syracuse -- #15
17. Oklahoma St -- #5, #43
18. Wisconsin -- nobody
19. Memphis -- nobody
20. Pittsburgh -- #22
21. Arizona -- #49, #59
22. Creighton -- #56
23. Notre Dame -- #89
24. UCLA -- #3, #75
25. Oregon -- nobody
26. VCU -- nobody
27. UNC -- #19, #51, #83
28. UNLV -- #6, #100
29. Butler -- nobody
30. FSU -- #55
31. Ole Miss -- nobody
32. Saint Mary's -- #99
33. Belmont -- nobody
34. Colorado St -- #90
35. Wichita St -- nobody
36. Montana -- nobody
unranked - Baylor -- #14, #79, #95
unranked - N.C. St. -- #30, #32, #35, #48, #73
unranked - Minnesota -- #74, #91
unranked - Arizona St -- #76, #78
unranked - Kentucky -- #1, #16, #18, #21

So, it looks like there are probably 13 teams with better talent by that measure. I don't know if being a McDonald's AA is necessarily the best metric for gauging talent at the college level: Kentucky has 4 and NC St also has 3.

I agree with you that we have a very talented team. I also agree that most teams would kill to have 2 or 3 of our starters. Since only Kentucky, NC St, and Duke have more than 3 top-100 players, it's likely that very many teams would take a couple of our guys if they could. I'd rather have 5 top-100 guys than 3, too.

I also think we are better than #14. We're #12 in the coaches poll, which is probably closer. I think we will go far in the tournament. I don't know if we could pull off a win against one of the top 4 teams, but it's certainly not out of the question. Any of the teams ranked #5 or lower, I'd say we're at least even odds against on a neutral floor. If we make it to the Final Four, as I think we can, I'd say we overachieved. As it stands now, I say we're either doing as well as expected or slightly overachieving. How we do in the tournament will determine which it is.

[appgator]

If Beal comes back and We keep Larson that team would be 31-2 or better. Bottom line imho is we got caught up with our lack of size at times. Young is ONE year away still offensively. He needs to tighten his fts up and touch around the rim. Most of the losses this year was due to lack of productivity in the paint. Especially late in games. Am not sure if the lack of depth got em tired or what but its definately has been a problem.

[madgator]

Originally Posted by akaGatorhoops

Very muted expectations for a team returning so much from an elite 8, and near final 4 run a season ago. At least some of these "warts all over the place" had to be there a season ago, right?
And while we lost beal, we do have Yeguete in this post season--- as well as a markedly improved rosario and a solid contributing freshman.

I don't think so. Making the sweet 16 in of itself is a tough accomplishment. Going into the SEC tournament last year I didn't think more than the Sweet 16 until Beal came into his own. Then as the tournament went on, it started to look like we might be able to take it all.

Yeguette right now is concerning me. His offense has gotten worse since he has come back. I also think that you are going to see a cutback in Frazier's minutes moving forward. He was a severe liability on defense against Ole Miss; slow on the rotations, getting blown by a couple of times, and on the offensive end with like 2:30-3 minutes left he missed a wide open three at the top of the key. Generally speaking, you can't trust freshman this time of year.

It was good that he got those crunch time minutes. But that was the SEC tournament. This is the dance.

[gatorich]

Originally Posted by madgator

I don't think so. Making the sweet 16 in of itself is a tough accomplishment. Going into the SEC tournament last year I didn't think more than the Sweet 16 until Beal came into his own. Then as the tournament went on, it started to look like we might be able to take it all.

Yeguette right now is concerning me. His offense has gotten worse since he has come back. I also think that you are going to see a cutback in Frazier's minutes moving forward. He was a severe liability on defense against Ole Miss; slow on the rotations, getting blown by a couple of times, and on the offensive end with like 2:30-3 minutes left he missed a wide open three at the top of the key. Generally speaking, you can't trust freshman this time of year.

It was good that he got those crunch time minutes. But that was the SEC tournament. This is the dance.

I actually thought Will was moving around and a lot more active on the court the last game. Getting over that type surgery has a lot to do with trusting your knee so the mental aspects may be his biggest obstacles. I doubt Frazer has his minutes reduced, at least not in this first game....maybe against some better teams.

[akaGatorhoops]

Originally Posted by madgator

I don't think so. Making the sweet 16 in of itself is a tough accomplishment. Going into the SEC tournament last year I didn't think more than the Sweet 16 until Beal came into his own. Then as the tournament went on, it started to look like we might be able to take it all.

Yeguette right now is concerning me. His offense has gotten worse since he has come back. I also think that you are going to see a cutback in Frazier's minutes moving forward. He was a severe liability on defense against Ole Miss; slow on the rotations, getting blown by a couple of times, and on the offensive end with like 2:30-3 minutes left he missed a wide open three at the top of the key. Generally speaking, you can't trust freshman this time of year.

It was good that he got those crunch time minutes. But that was the SEC tournament. This is the dance.

If this is your criteria for the bench, I am not sure who we are going to send out on the court.

I think WY is looking better with each passing game, and his offense is hardly a component we ever relied upon. And I do not think Frazier will see any significant reduction in minutes.

Though the loss of Beal is significant--- I think the imrpovement of Rosario and Wilbekin, along with the return of Yeguete and contributions of Frazier make this team one that should have have very similar expectations and capabilities.
And if I combine your theory of 'addition by subtraction' to the equation--- well, I am not sure how you have such a conservative benchmark. You were very much laudiing this team early in the season. Are you seeing a regression?

Ok... I will say what I am dancing around here. While I hate to call you out on our tired debate...I see a curiously large discrepancy between your post season expectations this year and last. This makes little sense to me, seeing that we have shown marked improvement in some players, lost only Beal and eliminated a guard who you consdered a hinderance. It is my theory that you over-sold last season's expecations so to claim the team underachieved with Walker. Now, a year later, you set the stage exactly opposite so that you may suggest this year's version met or exceeded expectations wthout him.

While I do not underestimate the loss of Beal, I also will not discount the return of Yeguete, support of Frazier or improvement of Rosario and Wilbekin. I also find it interesting that you site a team with "warts everywhere" whereas a year ago--- with nearly the same roster--- one would conclude from your posts that there was a lone wart.

Anyway, suffice to say--- I hope this team surpasses your 'expectations'.

go gators!

[akaGatorhoops]

I just re-read and edited my own post . . . my ending sounded harsh.
Im not trying to blast you, Mad- - - as I enjoy your posts when we are not on this subject. For whatever reason, I have a complusion to point out what I think was a very unfair standard you assigned to Walker, as well as some overly harsh analysis.
Maybe I read too much into your post and should not have re-engaged.

[madgator]

Originally Posted by akaGatorhoops

I just re-read and edited my own post . . . my ending sounded harsh.
Im not trying to blast you, Mad- - - as I enjoy your posts when we are not on this subject. For whatever reason, I have a complusion to point out what I think was a very unfair standard you assigned to Walker, as well as some overly harsh analysis.
Maybe I read too much into your post and should not have re-engaged.

You know that things can change quickly in the tournament depending on who beats who. What player is stepping up his game ie Alex Tyus (paging Patric Young!) For example, two years ago we arguably were the best team in the country as everything started to unfold in the tournament.

last year, we probably weren't in that discussion however we were at a level where we could compete with anyone.


I feel the same way about this years team as I do about last years team. Can we make the elite 8, the final four, the finals, win it all? Yeah...but I don't think we are the best team in the country. 2 years ago, I thought we really were the best team. So the sweet 16 is a legitimate and fair expectation.


So it's not really a dumping of Walker and a support of it. In retrospect, my problem wasn't really with Walker. He was what he was for both the good and bad. The real target of my frustration should've been with Donovan (and of course his supporters). Points of reasoning I did bring up.

[regurgigator]

I agree with Pearl in that for about 2 thirds of the season (prior to Yeguete's knee problems) we were playing the best basketball I've ever seen a Gator team play, including the 04's, without the NBA talent of those championship teams. We absolutely destroyed some good teams and made some mediocre teams like FSU look like they didn't even belong in a major college basketball game.

I'm not sure I had ever seen games where we were tripling the score on major conference opponents into the second half of a game, and I think we did that several times this year.

I agree with the comments that this team has shown the ability to have the whole exceed the sum of the parts. And, I think the key to that has been some incredible defense. And, I'm hopeful we'll see that same defense in the Tourney now that Yeguete is back and at least somewhat healthy - although apparently still dealing with some pain.