Tournament Outlook (using metrics and not voodoo)

[fairfaxgator]

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

I wonder what percentage of this board either is not black or white or understands probability. We have a really small sample size of being up said amount late, fairfax.

Understand it...it was a joke...

[tebowharvin]

Originally Posted by mdgator05

Unless I saw some actual stats disproving it, I would be very surprised if there wasn't state dependence in this data.

Think about it like a random walk. So maybe every team is subject to the same normal distribution of playing better or worse on a given day, with a mean at where they played the last game and some standard error set evenly for all teams.

Even in this year, I would be shocked if there wasn't state dependence in this data. It is a pretty crucial component. Basically, if you took your predicted model and found significant heteroskedasticity, in which, to use Florida as an example, they consistently outperformed the projection early in the year versus underperforming the projection later in the year, you would have a pretty good argument that model accuracy could be improved by the inclusion of some measure of state dependence.

Not meaning this as an attack as I appreciate the use of stats to analyze teams above fairly biased observations as given by the talking heads. Just thinking that might help model accuracy if it isn't there. And if it is, that is a pretty surprising result.

I appreciate the logical response, and I understand your point a little better now, but two things:

1: I think Florida has been consistent this season. Early on when we played bad opponents (relative to location) we destroyed (easy teams, good teams (Marquette, Wisconsin at home)), and we struggled against good teams (relative to location again) (Kansas St. on road Arizona on road). Same could be said for late season favorable scenarios we handled easily, unfavorable ones we struggled. Heck we seem the MOSt consistent if you think about it (maybe not the best team however,

2: Even if that analysis were incorporated into the calculation I just have the opinion that it would not affect the ratings too much.

The point of this thread guys was just a general outlook to keep the entire season in perspective. I do not believe we are top 5, just that we have a GREAT shot at doing very well.

[tebowharvin]

Originally Posted by Jonas

I generally agree with you, but aren't 5 games enough to expect it to average out? I know we came back against Bama, which is great, but I'm slightly worried that when the game gets close at the end, our players might get tight. Maybe it's just variance. Hard to say without really knowing what the players are thinking.

If you don't know if it is variance or not (which I tend to think IS variance) you should assume it is variance in analysis.

Serious statement:
Perhaps someone would like to look at the top 15 of kenpom and create new reasonable Pythagorean ratings taking into account all of the late-game-struggle-sorcery. And then run the numbers. Or give me those numbers and I will pump out the key numbers for you...... If you REALLY want me too.

[tebowharvin]

Originally Posted by fairfaxgator

Understand it...it was a joke...

Sorry.

[fairfaxgator]

Originally Posted by tebowharvin

Sorry.

No worries. We are all a little on edge. Go gators!

[jmoliver]

We are 3-4 down the stretch. We are going no where.

[UFish]

Originally Posted by jmoliver

We are 3-4 down the stretch. We are going no where.

1-4 down the stretch last year.

I don't disagree with you but it's not smart to base it on how we end the regular season. Not this team.

[tebowharvin]

Original Post updated, not much change.

[mdgator05]

Originally Posted by jmoliver

We are 3-4 down the stretch. We are going no where.

We are 4-3 in the last 7. I prefer using a number of games not chosen to make a point. So lets use the last 10, as it is a commonly used stat. We are 6-4 over the last 10. Not good, but not a losing record and certainly better than last year. We will have to play much better to go anywhere.

[tebowharvin]

Why don't we define "nowhere" and "far"? Please. Are you saying no Sweet 16?