Must Win Games Today

[GothamGator]

After two lackluster days, Friday brings high intrigue to the SEC Tournament. If you like watching desperate teams fight and scratch for their tournament lives, then today's action in Nashville is for you!

The 1pm tipoff features the first appearance of the SEC Champions, Florida, which takes on LSU.

After that, come the must win games for several SEC teams.

3:30 - Alabama vs. Tennessee. Both teams have to win this game to make the NCAA Tournament. If Tennessee wins, they are in the dance, barring mulitple upsests that could push them back to the wrong side of the bubble. If Tennessee loses, they almost certainly won't make the NCAA Tournament. Alabama on the other hand has more work to do, but a win over Tennessee would be the first step to an at-large bid.

7:30 - Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt. Kentucky will be a favorite over a Commodore team they defeated twice this season, but those wins were by 4 points and 2 points. If Vanderbilt pulls off an upset, the Wildcats are almost certainly out of the NCAA Tournament. They are Jerry Palm's last team out today, and a loss to Vanderbilt would be their second bad loss of the season.

10:00 - Missouri vs. Ole Miss. The Rebels are the SEC's most schizo team, and right now are on the bad side of the bubble. However, Ole Miss can make a big statement with a neutral court win over a Missouri team that's already a lock. The two teams split in the regular season, with Ole Miss winning by 15 at home and losing by 18 on the road. Plus, Missouri expended a lot of energy in its late night win over Texas A&M.

[REM08]

Kentucky Tennessee Ole Miss Alabama
Div. I Record 21-10 19-11 23-8 19-11
Non-Conf. Record 9-4 8-4 11-2 7-5
Winning % Rank 65 92 38 92
Avg. RPI Win 158 144 170 152
Avg. RPI Loss 54 61 92 90
SOS 61 42 130 87
Non-Conf. SOS 72 46 290 88
RPI 50 55 56 62
Vs RPI 1-50 2-4 4-4 1-4 1-4
Vs RPI 51-100 5-5 5-5 6-2 6-3
Vs RPI 101-200 5-1 3-2 5-0 6-3
Vs RPI 201+ 9-0 7-0 11-2 6-1
Non-Conf. Away/Neutral 1-2 2-3 3-2 3-2


http://www.mrsec.com/2013/03/tourney...resumes-31113/

I give up. I carefully spaced each column only to see it collapsed after I post. If you click the link, they have the same graph. Its also an interesting, but very detailed, article.

Summary

Keeping in mind that the NCAA selection panel is charged with looking at all 347 teams from across the country, an SEC-only view can be misleading. Especially in a year when the bubble is as soft as it is this year. Kentucky, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Alabama are competing against the Middle Tennessee States, Wichita States, LaSalles and Virginias of the world as much as they are each other.

But our history of accurately predicting the SEC’s bids suggests that this process is 98% math. In a given year, you can look at the RPI and SOS numbers and accurately predict about 34 or 35 out of 37 at-large bids. A couple will always leave you scratching your head and Jay Bilas barking about a better selection process, but the reality is it’s all about the math.

The math today — ahead of the SEC Tournament — tells us that Tennessee is the most likely SEC team to grab a third SEC bid, followed closely by Kentucky. However, the Vols got the worst possible seed for them (#5) and will be force to play a second-round game against the winner of South Carolina and Mississippi State, two sub-200 teams. Lose that game and UT’s tourney hopes are likely kaput (depending on what happens elsewhere).

Kentucky, on the other hand, will have a double-bye and will play the winner of the Arkansas/Vanderbilt game. A win over either will likely guarantee the Wildcats a spot on the NCAA’s dance card.

Alabama and Ole Miss are both in need of deep, deep tournament runs. Both have double-byes. Alabama will play the remaining team from Tennessee/South Carolina/Mississippi State. A head-to-head win over the Vols could definitely help the Tide’s chances, but it’s likely they’ll also need to upset Florida or beat Georgia/LSU in the next round. Bama might just need to win the whole darn tourney.

The negative numbers on Mississippi’s resume are hard to ignore. Therefore they’ll definitely need to take care of the remaining team from Missouri/Auburn/Texas A&M on Friday and then win again on Saturday.

Like the Tide, we believe the Rebels can’t feel safe until they win the tournament outright.

Once again, our view as of Monday: Tennessee is in as of today, Kentucky is probably in, and Ole Miss and Alabama are out. But that most definitely can change.

Joe Lunardi was on one of the SEC telecasts yesterday and said that Kentucky is in a very weird position having lost Noel. Said that its very hard to predict how the committee views them. Said it could range from UK already being "solidly in no matter what" to "still having a lot of work to do." He kept harping on the fact that its hard to know for sure how the committee members will view the loss of Noel.

On one hand, the team was far from a lock before his loss and is only 4 and 3 since Noel's injury - having lost every road game by double digits. On the other hand, even with Noel, UK was a team with zero good wins. They now have 2 good wins on the year - both coming without Noel.

[iam4uf]

An Ole Miss win & subsequent loss to UK would probably get their RPI to 55 & on the bubble. If Ole Miss beats Missouri & UK they are around a mid-40 RPI & in.

A UK loss to Ole Miss keeps UK around 50 RPI & probably in.

A UT win & subsequent loss to UF would leave them with an RPI of around 60 with two 100+ RPI losses. I don't think this will make it.

[co_gator89]

The first two days were just taking out the trash. This is where the real SEC tourney starts.

[iam4uf]

Originally Posted by co_gator89

The first two days were just taking out the trash. This is where the real SEC tourney starts.

Yeah, I think having those first two games is unnecessary. I guess they bring in a little more revenue & maybe get another win that a bubble team could use.

[NorthCaptivaGator]

I see no scenario where UK is not already in, too much money, our loss to them clinched it for them

[gatordavisl]

Originally Posted by NorthCaptivaGator

I see no scenario where UK is not already in, too much money, our loss to them clinched it for them

Agree with this. UK is in. A Vandy loss could muddy the waters, but that simply will not happen. UT is already in IMO. Ole Miss is an interesting case. Good record, but bad schedule. If they beat MZ, they could be in. That outcome, though, is doubtful.

Looks to me like UF/MZ/UT/UK

[GothamGator]

Originally Posted by NorthCaptivaGator

I see no scenario where UK is not already in, too much money, our loss to them clinched it for them

Money is irrelevant. These games sell out and the nation watches regardless.

UK is on the good side of the bubble, but a loss to Vandy likely kills them. They have the worst record of the SEC bubble teams against the RPI top 100 (7-9) and a defeat to the Commodores would be their second bad loss. Add in that they've lost Noel and have performed worse without him, and there is no way they make it in.

This game is do or die for UK.

[MadduxFanII]

Originally Posted by iam4uf

Yeah, I think having those first two games is unnecessary. I guess they bring in a little more revenue & maybe get another win that a bubble team could use.

The SEC Baseball Tournament doesn't invite everybody. I believe it was just eight schools out of 12 as of last year; I don't know what the plans are for a bigger conference.

I see no reason why Mississippi State, Auburn, Texas A&M and South Carolina really have to be here for this.

[tilly]

Originally Posted by GothamGator

This game is do or die for UK.

Can't be...Coach Cal says conference tourneys are meaningless

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Tablet using Gator Country

[rounds]

Stallings was shocked his team won yesterday.

[iam4uf]

Originally Posted by tilly

Can't be...Coach Cal says conference tourneys are meaningless

lol. Didn't he also say that he didn't care about winning SEC championships?

[co_gator89]

Originally Posted by rounds

Stallings was shocked his team won yesterday.

Imagine how shocked he'll be if this current lead holds up for Vandy.

[CASontag]

So Ole Miss beat Missouri. Are they in or do they need to beat Vandy to assure them a spot in the NCAA tournament? I think Ole Miss could give Vandy trouble but it's kind of a toss up to me as to who will win that game.

[tommyuf21]

I think a loss to Vandy hurts them. They really need to win tomorrow and get to the finals to lock themselves in.

[CASontag]

I like the fact that if UF beats Bama they then get either Vandy or Ole Miss, both teams that I think the Gators match up against pretty well.

[GatorPlanet]

Missouri is the better team, but Ole Miss rallied late and won it, so that's good for the Gators. Ole Miss is better than Vandy, but not if Vandy really is as good as they've been the last two days.

Florida is clearly the best of the four remaining. If we take care of the ball, we win this tournament, and lock up a 3-seed, and possibly a 2.

[TampaGatorFan]

Lunardi says Ole Miss is in now, no matter what happens tomorrow.

IMHO, it's going to be Florida and Ole Miss in the final game.

[TampaGatorFan]

Originally Posted by GatorPlanet

Missouri is the better team, but Ole Miss rallied late and won it, so that's good for the Gators. Ole Miss is better than Vandy, but not if Vandy really is as good as they've been the last two days.

Florida is clearly the best of the four remaining. If we take care of the ball, we win this tournament, and lock up a 3-seed, and possibly a 2.

If we win the SECT, we're a solid 2.

[MadduxFanII]

We clobbered Vandy, albeit after more than a little offensive incompetence. We handled Ole Miss with relative ease. And we beat a hyper-motivated Alabama team by 12.

Anything less than a tournament championship is officially a disappointment. In truth, we'd be better off with Missouri in the title game. Better quality win for the resume.