Gator Country

corpgator · 03-14-2013, 02:37 PM

All Gators. 73% chance to win the tournament.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/sec_log5

**regurgigator** · 03-14-2013, 02:54 PM

Wow! He's really on the UF bandwagon...at least compared to the rest of the SEC

corpgator · 03-14-2013, 03:20 PM

In the time they've been tracking it, a team has never destroyed a conference as much as we have. UK last year stands as the 2nd highest efficiency margin.

tommyuf21 · 03-14-2013, 03:26 PM

Vegas has us at 1:2 odds to win it. I guess that's better than 73%.

I sure hope we're not sitting here tomorrow or Saturday wondering what the hell happened.

When was the last time we were such an overwhelming favorite to win the SEC Tourney?

Matthanuf06 · 03-14-2013, 05:36 PM

Wow, I wouldn't touch that at all. You may get better odds than that on the Sunday game alone.

If you say we have a 95% chance of winning tomorrow, 80% on Saturday, and 70% on Sunday that means we only have a 53% chance at winning the whole thing.

To get to 73% you are talking like 99% tomorrow, 90% Saturday, and somewhere between 80-85 percent on Sunday.

Seems like wishful thinking IMHO.

SmootyGator · 03-14-2013, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

Wow, I wouldn't touch that at all. You may get better odds than that on the Sunday game alone.

If you say we have a 95% chance of winning tomorrow, 80% on Saturday, and 70% on Sunday that means we only have a 53% chance at winning the whole thing.

To get to 73% you are talking like 99% tomorrow, 90% Saturday, and somewhere between 80-85 percent on Sunday.

Seems like wishful thinking IMHO.

Yeah, it's the same as having a 90% chance to win each of our three games. Not. Even. Close.

I would guess that we should be around 30-35% chance to win it all.

tommyuf21 · 03-14-2013, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

Wow, I wouldn't touch that at all. You may get better odds than that on the Sunday game alone.

If you say we have a 95% chance of winning tomorrow, 80% on Saturday, and 70% on Sunday that means we only have a 53% chance at winning the whole thing.

To get to 73% you are talking like 99% tomorrow, 90% Saturday, and somewhere between 80-85 percent on Sunday.

Seems like wishful thinking IMHO.

Bovada has us as 2-5 favorites. Interestingly enough, preseason they had UK has 1-1 favorites to win the regular season title and UF was 5-2.

Money wise, I've seen us at -170, -250 and so on.

Going into today, he was the percentage breakdown. It's interesting to look at.

Seed Team R2 Quarter Semi Champ Win
1 Florida -- 100.00% 95.55% 86.91% 69.30%
2 Kentucky -- 100.00% 75.94% 42.77% 12.66%
6 Missouri -- 84.30% 50.93% 28.21% 8.23%
3 Mississippi -- 100.00% 45.08% 20.52% 4.50%
5 Tennessee -- 83.77% 45.01% 5.66% 1.98%
4 Alabama -- 100.00% 51.68% 5.63% 1.78%
7 Arkansas -- 63.22% 17.48% 5.99% 0.91%
9 LSU -- 51.93% 2.42% 0.95% 0.22%
8 Georgia -- 48.07% 2.02% 0.76% 0.16%
10 Vanderbilt -- 36.78% 6.58% 1.56% 0.15%
11 Texas A&M -- 12.95% 3.59% 0.90% 0.09%
13 Miss State -- 4.10% 0.58% 0.01% 0.00%

GatorLurker · 03-14-2013, 06:09 PM

There is a major flaw in kenpom's analysis. He gives Vandy a 0.5 share of home court, but not UK. For anyone that has ever gone to an SEC tournament other than the one in Orlando when UK was on probation and not there this is obviously incorrect.

tommyuf21 · 03-14-2013, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorLurker

There is a major flaw in kenpom's analysis. He gives Vandy a 0.5 share of home court, but not UK. For anyone that has ever gone to an SEC tournament other than the one in Orlando when UK was on probation and not there this is obviously incorrect.

This is essentially a home tourney for UK, but that could be said about any tournament in the Southeast.

If the games were at Vandy's weird and illegal gym, I could buy the .5 share for them. However, with their rebuilding season and a different facility, they have no home court advantage.

gator2109 · 03-14-2013, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

Wow, I wouldn't touch that at all. You may get better odds than that on the Sunday game alone.

If you say we have a 95% chance of winning tomorrow, 80% on Saturday, and 70% on Sunday that means we only have a 53% chance at winning the whole thing.

To get to 73% you are talking like 99% tomorrow, 90% Saturday, and somewhere between 80-85 percent on Sunday.

Seems like wishful thinking IMHO.

States it in the link...

Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Florida 100 100 95.0 84.6 73.2

jagervol01 · 03-14-2013, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tommyuf21

This is essentially a home tourney for UK, but that could be said about any tournament in the Southeast.

If the games were at Vandy's weird and illegal gym, I could buy the .5 share for them. However, with their rebuilding season and a different facility, they have no home court advantage.

What is funny about Kentucky fans is how many of them go to the games on the days they aren't even playing. There were as many Cat fans as Vol fans at the TN/Miss St game today. That is crazy. They are just bball loving freaks!

Matthanuf06 · 03-14-2013, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gator2109

States it in the link...

Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Florida 100 100 95.0 84.6 73.2

No, that's saying we have a 73 percent chance at winning the whole thing, not our winning percentage for each individual game.

tommyuf21 · 03-14-2013, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jagervol01

What is funny about Kentucky fans is how many of them go to the games on the days they aren't even playing. There were as many Cat fans as Vol fans at the TN/Miss St game today. That is crazy. They are just bball loving freaks!

They sure are. I have to respect that and they bailed my butt out on tickets one year when we got bounced in the first round in 1987. Was able to sell my book for a nice profit that gave me enough money to spend the rest of the weekend at Tattletails and the Cheetah.

Of course, the kitties went out and lost the next round. We sure got a good laugh out of that.

InstiGATOR1 · 03-14-2013, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tommyuf21

This is essentially a home tourney for UK, but that could be said about any tournament in the Southeast.

If the games were at Vandy's weird and illegal gym, I could buy the .5 share for them. However, with their rebuilding season and a different facility, they have no home court advantage.

Actually if the game were at Memorial then Vandy would in fact be a home team. I think Pomeroy's reasoning is less crowd related and more that Vandy players get to sleep in their own beds, drink the water of their own city etc. Some part of home court advantage is fans but some part is going through your usual home court routine.

gator2109 · 03-14-2013, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

No, that's saying we have a 73 percent chance at winning the whole thing, not our winning percentage for each individual game.

Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ

1 Florida 100 100 95.0 84.6 73.2

That is the win percentage he has figured for each game. 100% quarters, 95% semis, 84.6% final and 73.2% overall..

themistocles · 03-14-2013, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

Wow, I wouldn't touch that at all. You may get better odds than that on the Sunday game alone.

If you say we have a 95% chance of winning tomorrow, 80% on Saturday, and 70% on Sunday that means we only have a 53% chance at winning the whole thing.

To get to 73% you are talking like 99% tomorrow, 90% Saturday, and somewhere between 80-85 percent on Sunday.

Seems like wishful thinking IMHO.

Well, of course, at 1-2 that would not be a good bet unless one can stretch one's non-local awareness far enough into the future to see the end game.

Also, Matt - you don't compute the probability of winning a tournament using simple conditional probabilities as you did.

A .75 means that if this tournament were played 4 times, the Gators would win 3.

A .67, if played 3 times, 2 wins.

A .50, if played 2 times, 1 win.

Even a .999999999 probability is not "sure."

Matthanuf06 · 03-14-2013, 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by themistocles

Well, of course, at 1-2 that would not be a good bet unless one can stretch one's non-local awareness far enough into the future to see the end game.

Also, Matt - you don't compute the probability of winning a tournament using simple conditional probabilities as you did.

A .75 means that if this tournament were played 4 times, the Gators would win 3.

A .67, if played 3 times, 2 wins.

A .50, if played 2 times, 1 win.

Even a .999999999 probability is not "sure."

I know that. I'm saying our odds of actually stringing together the three wins is definitely less than 75% or even one win vs Mizzou or UK is probably going to be less than that.

corpgator · 03-14-2013, 09:47 PM

That's what his number say and it's based on thousands and thousands of games. Not having to play until Friday certainly helps.

swampgas44 · 03-14-2013, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tommyuf21

Vegas has us at 1:2 odds to win it. I guess that's better than 73%.

I sure hope we're not sitting here tomorrow or Saturday wondering what the hell happened.

When was the last time we were such an overwhelming favorite to win the SEC Tourney?

Actually that would be 67%.

tommyuf21 · 03-14-2013, 10:13 PM

Thanks, Stats 1 wasn't my favorite class, if I remember correctly.