Who do think will win the NC this year? Pick your 5 favorites.

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

Oh, the old that game doesn't really count rationale. UNTIL, yes, until, I actually SEE the offense get better after three consecutive years of being bad then I will agree. Until then, the jury is out.

PS UGA will score at will next year. Us? Not so much.

Right, UGA worst case scenario is our 2007 team with a less dynamic but better passing QB. I think our defense will be good but I'm not entirely sure where people are getting the idea our defense will be as good or better than last years plus an improved offense- you guys do realize that we lost basically every major star on defense other than our corners (one of whom may lose his job to VH3), Easley and the 2 freshmen right? That our best returning pass rusher is a guy coming off a major knee injury?

I don't think the bottom falls out a 9 or 10 win season is certainly a fair expectation but we had a ton of breaks go our way last season (fitting given the previous 2 seasons- especially 2010, we had a ton of breaks go against us) and if we just have a small regression to the mean in fumbles for instance-- we could very easily be a 4 or 5 loss team, its the danger of the Muschamp ultra low margin approach vs. a Spurrier or Meyer style gameplan-- when you want every game to be a 17-10 type of contest vs. a 35-17 type of ball game and thus limit possessions and run the clock constantly every small mistake is magnified and you have far, far less room for errors.

[whitelakegator]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

Right, UGA worst case scenario is our 2007 team with a less dynamic but better passing QB. I think our defense will be good but I'm not entirely sure where people are getting the idea our defense will be as good or better than last years plus an improved offense- you guys do realize that we lost basically every major star on defense other than our corners (one of whom may lose his job to VH3), Easley and the 2 freshmen right? That our best returning pass rusher is a guy coming off a major knee injury?

I don't think the bottom falls out a 9 or 10 win season is certainly a fair expectation but we had a ton of breaks go our way last season (fitting given the previous 2 seasons- especially 2010, we had a ton of breaks go against us) and if we just have a small regression to the mean in fumbles for instance-- we could very easily be a 4 or 5 loss team, its the danger of the Muschamp ultra low margin approach vs. a Spurrier or Meyer style gameplan-- when you want every game to be a 17-10 type of contest vs. a 35-17 type of ball game and thus limit possessions and run the clock constantly every small mistake is magnified and you have far, far less room for errors.

Ten wins would tell me we are headed in the right direction. We lose a ton on defense without the fire power to make up for it. Muschamp seems to be a genius on D so I think we'll be alright(not like last year's championship caliber defense but decent nonetheless).

[gator0316]

at this point i dont think fl should be included ,lost to many defensive players and offense has to improve quit a bit.they may put it together but it to earlie for nc talk.

[1gatorbear]

OSU
Bama
Georgia
FSU
USC

[GATORAZ]

Originally Posted by gator0316

at this point i dont think fl should be included ,lost to many defensive players and offense has to improve quit a bit.they may put it together but it to earlie for nc talk.

Florida should def be included. If you look at what we have coming back you wont find many defensive lines better in the entire country. Florida also returns one of the best CB combination in the country. The offensive line will be better than last year and we have a talented back field. Other teams lost players as well. This team is loaded we need to figure out the LB situation and find a vertical threat but there are no excuses this year unless Jeff gets hurt. This is a top 5 team and should win the SEC east.

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by GATORAZ

Florida should def be included. If you look at what we have coming back you wont find many defensive lines better in the entire country. Florida also returns one of the best CB combination in the country. The offensive line will be better than last year and we have a talented back field. Other teams lost players as well. This team is loaded we need to figure out the LB situation and find a vertical threat but there are no excuses this year unless Jeff gets hurt. This is a top 5 team and should win the SEC east.

You're saying barring an injury to Jeff not playing in Atlanta would be an indictment of the coaching staff? I'm pretty critical of Boom's approach offensively ( I don't think it's the right way to attack Bama under Saban-- it's playing for best copycat instead of trying to be the top dog) but that seems wildly optimistic and a good way to set Will up to fail.

[theghost]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

You're saying barring an injury to Jeff not playing in Atlanta would be an indictment of the coaching staff? I'm pretty critical of Boom's approach offensively ( I don't think it's the right way to attack Bama under Saban-- it's playing for best copycat instead of trying to be the top dog) but that seems wildly optimistic and a good way to set Will up to fail.

Agreed. We lost 7 defensive starters....and lost our leading receiver (Reed), our leading rusher (Gillislee) and 3 OL starters....but if we don't get to Atlanta - barring an injury to Jeff - it's a reflection on our coaching staff??

[GATORAZ]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

You're saying barring an injury to Jeff not playing in Atlanta would be an indictment of the coaching staff? I'm pretty critical of Boom's approach offensively ( I don't think it's the right way to attack Bama under Saban-- it's playing for best copycat instead of trying to be the top dog) but that seems wildly optimistic and a good way to set Will up to fail.

Soc you dont believe in CWM so it really doesn't matter. Last year I said we would be in every game and I stuck to that all year. I also said last year before the season started we should be contending for the National title in 2013 and 2014. This year we should be favored or a pick em in every football game until the SEC Championship. We have one the best Dline in the league and will have one of the better Olines. When you are that good on the line of scrimmage you should go to Atlanta.

I did not say it would be an indictment on the staff I said their are no excuses. Last year it was the first year in a new offensive system. It was Jeff's first year starting and we had the same offensive players as the year prior. All that has changed.

How are we copying Bama offensively? If anything we are closer to LSU a few years ago than Bama. Bama is a one back team we are a two back team. We run zone read with Jeff Bama does none of that. We run jet sweeps how often doe Bama do that? How often is Bama putting extra tackles on the field on 2nd and 7 like we were last year? I will say this both Bama and Florida want balance on offense and CWM is moving towards that.


The 2013 season and the 2014 season are set up for Florida to go to the SEC Championship game and contend for the National title the talent is there.

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by GATORAZ

Soc you dont believe in CWM so it really doesn't matter. Last year I said we would be in every game and I stuck to that all year. I also said last year before the season started we should be contending for the National title in 2013 and 2014. This year we should be favored or a pick em in every football game until the SEC Championship. We have one the best Dline in the league and will have one of the better Olines. When you are that good on the line of scrimmage you should go to Atlanta.

I did not say it would be an indictment on the staff I said their are no excuses. Last year it was the first year in a new offensive system. It was Jeff's first year starting and we had the same offensive players as the year prior. All that has changed.

How are we copying Bama offensively? If anything we are closer to LSU a few years ago than Bama. Bama is a one back team we are a two back team. We run zone read with Jeff Bama does none of that. We run jet sweeps how often doe Bama do that? How often is Bama putting extra tackles on the field on 2nd and 7 like we were last year? I will say this both Bama and Florida want balance on offense and CWM is moving towards that.


The 2013 season and the 2014 season are set up for Florida to go to the SEC Championship game and contend for the National title the talent is there.

2 things- First do you think Muschamp really wants that read option component we have or is it more of an artifact of the old regime that he kept given the QB he essentially inherited, Secondly, while Bama is a one back scheme I can't believe Muschamp would want to copy LSU's approach (though admittedly it does look like it) both analysts and fans credit LSU's overly conservative run focused scheme with costing them multiple titles and/or title shots over the last half decade why on earth would we want to run a crappy LSU style offense, if its balance Muschamp wants why change scheme's at all we had an immensely balance attack under Meyer why not stick with the spread option for balance instead of going to an almost unwatchable offensive approach, which even at its best is only mediocre (seriously point to a decent LSU offense- 2007 is the only one I can think of recently and that team lost 2 games despite having the most talent in America), how is being overly stubborn any better than being overly cute?

Running into the middle of the line again and again when everyone in the stadium knows that's exactly what your going to do is no better than running a reverse passing inside the red zone late in a bowl game.


As for my initial skepticism of Muschamp-- he has a chance to prove me wrong over the next two seasons if he does that awesome we'll play for at least 1 title, if he doesn't well that sucks but we can move on- what last year scared me into worrying about is that he's going to be Mark Richt- always just good enough to stick around but never quite good enough to get a team over the hump, we won a ton of games very close when things broke our way it was the inverse of the two years prior- I neither think we were as good as 11-2 nor as bad as 7-6, in reality we were probably 1 or 2 wins better in 2011 and 1 or 2 wins worse last year-- Boom is a great defensive coach I don't think anyone doubts that, the question is if he can either learn to be a great head coach and/or learn to let go enough so that his offensive coordinator can make his own decisions and not worry about Will watching over his shoulder-- that is can Boom become as good a coach as Charlie Strong is right now or better yet reach the level of Meyer and Spurrier both of whom realized-though it may have taken a bit (another reason big teams shouldn't hire Coordinators as HCs, they should poach up-and-comers from mid-Majors and small majors) that Coordinators need to be free to make their own decisions.

[GATORAZ]

I think CWM wants to be multiple on offense so we will continue to see some read option and Wildcat but I think he would like to do it less. I am glad you see we are not like Bama's offense. There are elements of the spread in the offense but I know you long for the Meyer days but those days are gone and never coming back. No reason to change the scheme we are running just needed better player on the Oline and at the WR spot. He is addressing both areas in recruiting. The Oline has been address and the WR's are coming. While Meyer left CWM plenty of talent those were two spots that he missed or made mistakes in recruiting.

Even though we lost to Louisville I think a strong argument can be made CWM is already a better coach than Strong. Look who they lost to last year.

CWM is always going to be involved in the offense and I dont think that is a bad thing.

2013 AND 2014 are good chances to get a title but I wont be down on him and ready to throw him out if he comes up a little short. Only one team can wit it every year SOS only won it once.

[GatorAvatar]

Bama
Bama
Bama
Bama
OSU

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by GATORAZ

I think CWM wants to be multiple on offense so we will continue to see some read option and Wildcat but I think he would like to do it less. I am glad you see we are not like Bama's offense. There are elements of the spread in the offense but I know you long for the Meyer days but those days are gone and never coming back. No reason to change the scheme we are running just needed better player on the Oline and at the WR spot. He is addressing both areas in recruiting. The Oline has been address and the WR's are coming. While Meyer left CWM plenty of talent those were two spots that he missed or made mistakes in recruiting.

Even though we lost to Louisville I think a strong argument can be made CWM is already a better coach than Strong. Look who they lost to last year.

CWM is always going to be involved in the offense and I dont think that is a bad thing.

2013 AND 2014 are good chances to get a title but I wont be down on him and ready to throw him out if he comes up a little short. Only one team can wit it every year SOS only won it once.

Bama's offense has actually been more diverse than people give it credit for the last few years mixing in a decent amount of Pistol and even some tackle over formations though all heavily out a single back set (always wondered about that- most other run heavy teams like LSU as you note like a blocking back).

As far as National titles I agree they're highly arbitrary, missed in the Saban-love is just how lucky they've been during their run, specifically the last two seasons (2012 actually seems unfair- if you lose at home to a team and don't even win your division you shouldn't get a rematch outside of a playoff system), I do think its a reasonable expectation for a Florida head coach to win the East at least once in his first 4 seasons- if we don't, barring extraordinary circumstances, then I do think that would be a major concern.

Finally, offensively I think we're just going to disagree, not on the talent issue- Meyer missed on WR recruits late and OL while highly recruited busted (some would point to the adverse impact on development caused by shifting your previously competent OL coach to OC), But strategically, Muschamps approach could win in the long haul, I have problems with it aesthetically as well as tactically in terms of beating Alabama. From a tactical standpoint I don't think its the right approach to attack Saban's scheme-- to be honest Meyer's approach isn't ideal either though its closer- an offense along the lines of what Boom saw at Texas or that Utah ran against them in the Sugar Bowl is closer still as is the Air Raid approach Sumlin used against them last year-- as a unit Bama is hard to attack but if you put the individual players in space and force them to make choices they can be beaten, Saban's defense has gotten a bit too big lately and its cost them some lateral coverage ability-- its why I liked our d better than theirs last season.

[GATORAZ]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

Bama's offense has actually been more diverse than people give it credit for the last few years mixing in a decent amount of Pistol and even some tackle over formations though all heavily out a single back set (always wondered about that- most other run heavy teams like LSU as you note like a blocking back).

As far as National titles I agree they're highly arbitrary, missed in the Saban-love is just how lucky they've been during their run, specifically the last two seasons (2012 actually seems unfair- if you lose at home to a team and don't even win your division you shouldn't get a rematch outside of a playoff system), I do think its a reasonable expectation for a Florida head coach to win the East at least once in his first 4 seasons- if we don't, barring extraordinary circumstances, then I do think that would be a major concern.

Finally, offensively I think we're just going to disagree, not on the talent issue- Meyer missed on WR recruits late and OL while highly recruited busted (some would point to the adverse impact on development caused by shifting your previously competent OL coach to OC), But strategically, Muschamps approach could win in the long haul, I have problems with it aesthetically as well as tactically in terms of beating Alabama. From a tactical standpoint I don't think its the right approach to attack Saban's scheme-- to be honest Meyer's approach isn't ideal either though its closer- an offense along the lines of what Boom saw at Texas or that Utah ran against them in the Sugar Bowl is closer still as is the Air Raid approach Sumlin used against them last year-- as a unit Bama is hard to attack but if you put the individual players in space and force them to make choices they can be beaten, Saban's defense has gotten a bit too big lately and its cost them some lateral coverage ability-- its why I liked our d better than theirs last season.

I agree if CWM doesnt win the east in one of the next two years we should be very concerned unless Jeff gets hurt.

I get you have a problem with the aesthetics but I just like CWM want to win, dont really care how it looks. I also think you need to wait at see how the offense looks once CWM gets his players in on offense. Bama's offense was not fun to watch until this year wait until year 5 and 6 for CWM (they are not the same). I think you will enjoy the offense Jeff's Sr year and once Will Grier is back behind center.


Now to Saban's defense it is about to change. Last year we definitely had the better defense when you compare the two. The main reason is was our personnel was ready for whatever offense was in front of it. Like you said Saban's team struggles with pass happy offenses mainly because of the safeties and the size of their LB's.

Sunseri was a huge liability in pass coverage last year. Saban is probably a recruiting cycle or two behind in totally fixing this problem. They were built like this in order to beat their biggest competition which was LSU. Now that A & M is in the conference and Auburn and Ole Miss are bringing in spread elements they will be forced to adapt. This should only help us vs Bama.

[c_gator24]

Florida, Alabama, Ohio State, Stanford, Oklahoma are all contenders I think. Our defense will be fine, the pass rush will be much better with Bullard, Fowler, Easley, Powell and we have 2 shutdown corners in Marcus Roberson and Jaylen Watkins and VH3 will be good too. The offense will be way better, Purifoy will be the playmaker we've been missing along with the freshman receivers. Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor will be good. The O-line will be way better also. Driskel will be much improved IMO. I'm expecting a great season! Go Gators!

Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry

[Tipmoose]

Bama
OSU
A&M
UGA
LSU

[socraticsilence]

GatorAz- if the D line is as good as it could be (in terms of pressure, Bama last year had a great line but it was about gap control) it should cover most of the secondary weaknesses- Miami only worries due to its position in the schedule, if we went South in November i'd take us by 3 TDs- early on I do worry about our deep ball vulnerability not because Boom isn't an excellent defensive coach or because of a talent gap but because experience isn't something you can ignore (see Major in 07). If the offense comes along and is say average not even good just say top 60 we could contend if we don't get hit early, its just that after the last 2 years I need to see offense before I buy it as improved.

[theghost]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

GatorAz- if the D line is as good as it could be (in terms of pressure, Bama last year had a great line but it was about gap control) it should cover most of the secondary weaknesses- Miami only worries due to its position in the schedule, if we went South in November i'd take us by 3 TDs- early on I do worry about our deep ball vulnerability not because Boom isn't an excellent defensive coach or because of a talent gap but because experience isn't something you can ignore (see Major in 07). If the offense comes along and is say average not even good just say top 60 we could contend if we don't get hit early, its just that after the last 2 years I need to see offense before I buy it as improved.

3 TDs in November? Didn't we play Louisiana Lafayette in November? Until this offense, under Jeff, can show consistency or improvement I wouldn't take us 3 TDs vs. anyone....even Toledo!

[slayerxing]

First off: contenders
(Teams with a clear shot)

Alabama
Ohio state

Everybody else:
(Lots of other teams based on favorable schedules)

South carolina
Clemson
Louisville
Stanford
Oregon

Florida should not b in this discussion. The schedule is tough again, road games at usce and lsu, and they lost the nucleus of a defense that won all of our games, our best rb, receiver, 3 ol, and our defensive coordinator. There are no threatening wrs, no threatening tes, no rbs with starting xp, and a qb we're all unsure of. Our aa kicker is gone as well. That does not paint a picture of a championship team.

Uf could end up being very good. But itll take a lot to match last years win total with all the key losses.

[GATORAZ]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

GatorAz- if the D line is as good as it could be (in terms of pressure, Bama last year had a great line but it was about gap control) it should cover most of the secondary weaknesses- Miami only worries due to its position in the schedule, if we went South in November i'd take us by 3 TDs- early on I do worry about our deep ball vulnerability not because Boom isn't an excellent defensive coach or because of a talent gap but because experience isn't something you can ignore (see Major in 07). If the offense comes along and is say average not even good just say top 60 we could contend if we don't get hit early, its just that after the last 2 years I need to see offense before I buy it as improved.

I also worry about the Miami game because its early that is why I would start Riggs at one of the safety spots. Watkins is going to play safety in nickle so we are not going to be as green back there as one would think. All the pieces are there for a very productive offense it is just about how bad does Jeff want it. He has got to work hard on the off season not only in th film room but in unsupervised team practices and bring Demarcus Robinson along

[GATORAZ]

Originally Posted by slayerxing

Florida should not b in this discussion. The schedule is tough again, road games at usce and lsu, and they lost the nucleus of a defense that won all of our games, our best rb, receiver, 3 ol, and our defensive coordinator. There are no threatening wrs, no threatening tes, no rbs with starting xp, and a qb we're all unsure of. Our aa kicker is gone as well. That does not paint a picture of a championship team.

Uf could end up being very good. But itll take a lot to match last years win total with all the key losses.

Florida is better at RB position than last year
Florida is better on the OL then last year
Dunbar was our best WR last year and he is back
CWM is the D coordinator
Robinson and Purifoy can beat vertical threaTS
Jeff did fine last year
the Kicker situation is troubling

Interesting you didnt talk about any positives coming into the year