Healthy Metrics heading into the post-season

[SmootyGator]

Originally Posted by grant1

I was mistaken in the number of 3s vandy took. I thought they were well over 30, but only shot 24, making 4 (16.7%), which is half thier average. If vandy hits their average shots, the game is a lot closer, or they get hot and we are average, the game tilts towards them. This is my point.

However, we were quite above our average at making 9 of 18 from the arc. So the Gators hit their shot, plus some.

I really don't understand why people can't see this. While it was a 26 point win, it was ugly as hell and we played poorly. Vandy took a lot of open 3s and missed. Had we covered the arc, I would give credit to good defense, but this was not the case.

You can find stats like this in any game... I don't see what the point is. If we made every three pointer that we tried, we would be undefeated. If we missed them all, we would be (close to) winless. Water is wet.

[grant1]

Originally Posted by SmootyGator

You can find stats like this in any game... I don't see what the point is. If we made every three pointer that we tried, we would be undefeated. If we missed them all, we would be (close to) winless. Water is wet.

I understand that, but subjecting that game to a "smell test", it stunk. Just looking at shooting averages, we were lucky that Vandy was well below thier average. What made it smelly was that we didn't defend well. Low % from good defense is commendable, but as it were, we were just lucky.

[grant1]

Originally Posted by Jonas

Is it a downward tend or expexted variance?

I would say the trend is a result of the play with lack of fire that Coach Billy is complaining and disappointed about.

[corpgator]

To those who say it doesn't show how we've done lately: Pomeroy's numbers add extra weight to the latest games. The last game you played is worth much more than the first. The last 10 more than the first 10, etc.

[InstiGATOR1]

Originally Posted by grant1

I didn't make any preseason predictions.

You should try it. It help one see whether what is happening at various points in a season are cause for concern or just what you would expect away from the heat of the moment. It helps fans avoid panic unless panic is just one of their favorite emotions.

I do agree that pre-season expectations might need to be adjusted based on UF injuries etc. I see less need to adjust expectations due to what happens to the opponent.

For example, this year I had UF losing its first game at UAR so I did not fall into the unbeaten in conference talk. I had UF losing at UTn, at UMo and at UK. Games tend to play out more like ones rational evaluation pre-season than ones hope at the moment.

[grant1]

Originally Posted by InstiGATOR1

You should try it. It help one see whether what is happening at various points in a season are cause for concern or just what you would expect away from the heat of the moment. It helps fans avoid panic unless panic is just one of their favorite emotions.

I do agree that pre-season expectations might need to be adjusted based on UF injuries etc. I see less need to adjust expectations due to what happens to the opponent.

For example, this year I had UF losing its first game at UAR so I did not fall into the unbeaten in conference talk. I had UF losing at UTn, at UMo and at UK. Games tend to play out more like ones rational evaluation pre-season than ones hope at the moment.

the main reason I don't do it is that I don't have (make) time to really follow our opponents. Had I done it this year, I probably would have had a loss at UK and maybe at Mo.

My current thought process on the Gators reflects Billy's complaint in that we have been playing with a lack of fire/intensity and the results have been poor play in wins and losses. Get the fire back and we win every SEC tournament game by double digits.

I still have hope, but I'm not going to predict that it happens.

[SmootyGator]

Originally Posted by grant1

I understand that, but subjecting that game to a "smell test", it stunk. Just looking at shooting averages, we were lucky that Vandy was well below thier average. What made it smelly was that we didn't defend well. Low % from good defense is commendable, but as it were, we were just lucky.

I hear what you're saying, but there are so many more things to consider. For example: if Vandy started hitting some 3's, UF may have started playing out more to defend them harder. The reason we were giving them such open looks was because they weren't hitting them. Vandy's season 3 pointer % might be inflated because they get so many in garbage time at the end of games because they suck and they're always behind.

I'm not saying these things are really what happened, just things to be considered before totally basing your "smell test" off of one cherry-picked stat. I know it's cliche, but the most important stat at the end of the game is points for and points against.

It's really hard for me to say that a 30 point win doesn't pass the "smell test"!

[BuckyGator]

I remain optimistic. Obviously its disconcerting to see very experienced players have inexplicable lapses at the end of multiple close road games this year, but at the same time there's tons of evidence that random luck plays a major role in those situations.
Replay Mizzou and UK with 1 minute left in each, and UF may well go 2-0 and be closing in on a 1 seed. Instead they went 0-2 and are closing in on a 3 seed.

Not a huge deal in & of itself...hopefully they don't find themselves in an NCAA tourney close game until at least the 2nd weekend. And what are the chances their tourney run ends in a simlar heartbreaking fashion AGAIN, for a 3rd year in a row?

[SmootyGator]

Originally Posted by BuckyGator

And what are the chances their tourney run ends in a simlar heartbreaking fashion AGAIN, for a 3rd year in a row?

I've got news for you: It's going to be heartbreaking no matter when and no matter how we lose. If we lose by 30 in the first round, it will be heartbreaking. If we lose by a point in the finals it will be heartbreaking. The only way it's not heartbreaking is if you're not a Gator!!!

[patsyruth2008]

Originally Posted by InstiGATOR1

You should try it. It help one see whether what is happening at various points in a season are cause for concern or just what you would expect away from the heat of the moment. It helps fans avoid panic unless panic is just one of their favorite emotions.

I do agree that pre-season expectations might need to be adjusted based on UF injuries etc. I see less need to adjust expectations due to what happens to the opponent.

For example, this year I had UF losing its first game at UAR so I did not fall into the unbeaten in conference talk. I had UF losing at UTn, at UMo and at UK. Games tend to play out more like ones rational evaluation pre-season than ones hope at the moment.

Insti;

Not calling you out, but I thought the points you are making were extremely interesting. Let me ask you, would you have still picked us to loose to Kentucky and Missouri if you knew............

1) Kentucky would play without Noel.

2) We had a 13 point lead in the second half at Missouri with about 10 minutes to play.


I know I would not have and I think that is what leads to the frustrations that come up with alot of our posters. It is not, "did you see this game as a "W" or an "L" in November, but "how could we let this game slip away the way we did."

At least that is the way I look at it. Keep in mind I am a "glass half empty" type of guy.

[themistocles]

Originally Posted by regurgigator

I think we were playing great prior to losing Yeguete, and have been only very good since then.

I think we have the chance to get back to playing great for the Tourney.

As I noted when Yeguete was injured, he is the Team part of Teamwork.

He is the Success part of Successful.

That kid has got to be the most underestimated contributor on any team in the nation, and this has been true for 3 years now.

If he is back up to snuff come Friday, which may possibly finally be true, then yes, the probabilities of playing "Great" in the tournaments are considerably heightened.

[grant1]

Originally Posted by themistocles

As I noted when Yeguete was injured, he is the Team part of Teamwork.

He is the Success part of Successful.

That kid has got to be the most underestimated contributor on any team in the nation, and this has been true for 3 years now.

If he is back up to snuff come Friday, which may possibly finally be true, then yes, the probabilities of playing "Great" in the tournaments are considerably heightened.

I would agree with you except for one thing. It seems that when he did return, the rest of the team may have relaxed a bit knowing that he was back, when he really wasn't back to form. Show me and I'll believe.

[BuckyGator]

Originally Posted by SmootyGator

I've got news for you: It's going to be heartbreaking no matter when and no matter how we lose. If we lose by 30 in the first round, it will be heartbreaking. If we lose by a point in the finals it will be heartbreaking. The only way it's not heartbreaking is if you're not a Gator!!!

This is true, but that wouldn't be SIMILAR heartbreaking fashion, it'd be a different sort of heartbreaking fashion. Another Butler/'Ville type of loss would be tough for me to take...although if it comes in the Elite 8 again, I suppose I'd get over it!

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by gatorbogey

i think alot more people on the boards/around the country now follow sagarin and pomeroy. but for those that don't, and for those that wish to discuss, we still have strong metrics through the regular season. even w/ a startling 7 minute drought to end it.

anyway, the statistical analysis shows we're still a strong contender. relative to the field - we're like the '00, '06 and '07 teams with these numbers.

pomeroy
3-11-13
http://kenpom.com/
gators w/ the 5th rated offense and the 2nd best defense slots us on top of the poll (would stun me if we were to drop to a 4 seed w/ these metrics!)

indiana, michigan, duke, and gonzaga have more efficient offenses.
louisville w/ a better defense.

sagarin
3-11-13
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sport...in/bkt1213.htm
gators now 3rd in the composite poll - behind louisville and indiana, but #1 (still) in the Predictor rankings....and 3rd in the ELO-CHESS (no margin of victory, 'who we beat') - that one surprises me but it shows how well some of the teams we've beaten have done over the course of the season.
funny how the CHESS and composite align for the top 7...haven't seen that [ever?].

advice: don't be afraid to bet on the gators. [problem is, vegas checks these numbers too, so even if we're a 3 seed, we might actually have better odds to win it all than some of the 2seed and maybe even some of the 1 seeds, we'll see....

question is: can we get healthy and play to these numbers [again]? remains to be seen. and,...outstanding metrics didn't help put the ball in the bucket those last 7+ minutes of the UK game ....so, take it for what it is worth.

if sagarin were seeding the field today,
gators would be a 1 seed , along w/ louisville, indiana and the dukies.
gonzaga be a 2, along with kansas, ohio state & mich state.
michigan would fall to the 3 seed. with pitt, georgetown and syracuse.
4-seeds would be wisconsin, miami, okie state, and missouri!

The problem is that we kind of broke the computer rating system with how we blew the SEC out early-- our numbers going into February had us as one of the greatest teams in the history of the game-- which distorts the actual picture quite a bit.

[regurgigator]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

The problem is that we kind of broke the computer rating system with how we blew the SEC out early-- our numbers going into February had us as one of the greatest teams in the history of the game-- which distorts the actual picture quite a bit.

It's only a problem if: (1) you don't think Yeguete was a critical component of that early success (but I do) and (2) you don't think we can recapture that early dynamic with Yeguete back (that's a little more iffy).

Yes, the offense has struggled also, but I think our great defense was fueling the confidence that helped the offense on the other end (not to mention leading directly to some of our points).

[grant1]

Originally Posted by regurgigator

It's only a problem if: (1) you don't think Yeguete was a critical component of that early success (but I do) and (2) you don't think we can recapture that early dynamic with Yeguete back (that's a little more iffy).

Yes, the offense has struggled also, but I think our great defense was fueling the confidence that helped the offense on the other end (not to mention leading directly to some of our points).

And part of the current problem is that they are playing without passion as we did early. To play great defense as we did early requires fire. Just look at our Sugar Bowl effort; we lacked the fire and passion and looeyville did not. A lesser opponent with it is a huge equalizer.

I also think that since WY returned, the others may have eased off a bit. Hopefully, the return to January form.

[regurgigator]

Good solid win today, but (IMHO) I'm still not seeing the fire/intensity that I saw earlier this season.

I'm still optimistic we'll see it in the NCAA Tourney even if we don't see it in this Tourney. But, I'd feel better about it if we see it now!

LSU made us pay for some open threes, but otherwise, they seem like a fairly inept team.



I know some are probably down on Boynton, but he actually seems to me to be the guy who is digging deeper than anyone else on the team right now. Excellent defense today (and the last few games), several good hustle plays, and a really solid floor game on offense other than the missed shots. Unlike the last game, his shot looked poor to me from the start today.

Yeguete seems to be getting back into form also.

Loved the hot shooting and great all-around game from Murphy, of course. Pretty good games from Rosario (glad to see his passing under control) and Wilbekin (also hot shooting).

Young played excellent defense, but he was very unpredictable on offense. What the heck was he doing on the bad pass by Yeguete (that ended up being thrown to no one within 6 feet)? Was Young trying to make the passing angle as bad as it could possibly be? Or, was he getting dragged away by the LSU player? (and maybe a foul should have been called) Young can do a lot better overall at making himself a good target and holding off the defender better.

Good show from Frazier and Prather was fine, but a little quiet.

[gatorbogey]

nice synopsis.

that lsu game was a fun game to watch as a gator fan!

saw ALOT of positives. [still have room to improve]

[tommyuf21]

Originally Posted by regurgigator

Or, was he getting dragged away by the LSU player? (and maybe a foul should have been called)

I'm pretty sure a purple jersey had a hold of him. That's the way it looked to me.

[grant1]

I'll take it. Good shooting for everyone, but Boynton. Man, I wish he would shoot from the top of his jumper, but he did have good energy.

Would not surprise me to see us win every game 20 this weekend with this effort.

Best 4 hours of vacation I've had in a while.