Who Will Shoot the 3 Next Year?

[themistocles]

So, I know that everyone is into brackets and seedings and final games, and such-like, but there has been one question regarding the 2013 Gator team that has been bugging me since the season started and actually has been exacerbated by the play of the younger players on this team.

Who Will Shoot the 3 Next Year for the Gators???

This wouldn't usually be a question for the Gators, because Billy D always recruits good 3-point shooters, but this year, the 3 seniors have combined for 68.8% of all 3-pointers shot, which is quite unusual, while only Frazier (14.3%) and Wilbekin (12.4%) have shot any number of these shots (combined 26.7% of all).

Regarding Hit percentages, as long as Boynton has been on the team, there has tended to be an inverse proportion of proportion shot to proportion made, and that pretty much remains true - Boyton has the lowest hit percentage (33.2%) and the greatest proportion of shots taken (28.5%); Rosario has the 2nd worst hit percentage (35.3%) and the 2nd greatest proportion of shots taken (20.6%). Frazier has the highest hit percentage (48.9%) and the 2nd least proportion of shots taken among the top 5, with 14.3%. Only Wilbekin and Murphy follow a logical path here, with Murphy having the higher percentage (46.5%) to Wilbekin's 37.5%; as well as a greater percentage of shots taken, 19.7% versus 12.4%.

So, some 70% of the 3-point shooters will be gone next year, and neither of the new freshmen recruits are known for hitting 3s, although DFS apparently did pretty well at that as a freshman.

Last year's recruiting class was obviously oriented toward solving this future problem, but, although all 4 of the Wing players had reputations as being good 3-point shooters, only Frazier has shown anything. The others, right now are respectively by number of shots taken: Graham (0 for 9); Walker (0 for 6); Ogbueze (1 for 4).

So, right now, it looks like the Gators may well be dependent on 2, or perhaps 3 guys who can shoot the 3 next year (if DFS or Graham, or Ogbueze, or Walker develop or have that capacity).

Teams like that, when those couple of players have off nights, frequently find opponents effectively bunching up in zones and killing the offense.

Just something that has been bugging me.

[LetItFly]

Originally Posted by themistocles

So, I know that everyone is into brackets and seedings and final games, and such-like, but there has been one question regarding the 2013 Gator team that has been bugging me since the season started and actually has been exacerbated by the play of the younger players on this team.

Who Will Shoot the 3 Next Year for the Gators???

This wouldn't usually be a question for the Gators, because Billy D always recruits good 3-point shooters, but this year, the 3 seniors have combined for 68.8% of all 3-pointers shot, which is quite unusual, while only Frazier (14.3%) and Wilbekin (12.4%) have shot any number of these shots (combined 26.7% of all).

Regarding Hit percentages, as long as Boynton has been on the team, there has tended to be an inverse proportion of proportion shot to proportion made, and that pretty much remains true - Boyton has the lowest hit percentage (33.2%) and the greatest proportion of shots taken (28.5%); Rosario has the 2nd worst hit percentage (35.3%) and the 2nd greatest proportion of shots taken (20.6%). Frazier has the highest hit percentage (48.9%) and the 2nd least proportion of shots taken among the top 5, with 14.3%. Only Wilbekin and Murphy follow a logical path here, with Murphy having the higher percentage (46.5%) to Wilbekin's 37.5%; as well as a greater percentage of shots taken, 19.7% versus 12.4%.

So, some 70% of the 3-point shooters will be gone next year, and neither of the new freshmen recruits are known for hitting 3s, although DFS apparently did pretty well at that as a freshman.

Last year's recruiting class was obviously oriented toward solving this future problem, but, although all 4 of the Wing players had reputations as being good 3-point shooters, only Frazier has shown anything. The others, right now are respectively by number of shots taken: Graham (0 for 9); Walker (0 for 6); Ogbueze (1 for 4).

So, right now, it looks like the Gators may well be dependent on 2, or perhaps 3 guys who can shoot the 3 next year (if DFS or Graham, or Ogbueze, or Walker develop or have that capacity).

Teams like that, when those couple of players have off nights, frequently find opponents effectively bunching up in zones and killing the offense.

Just something that has been bugging me.

This year we only have 5 3 point shooters (Boynton, Rosario, Wilbekin, Murphy, Frazier). Of those 2 are high percentage, 1 is high volume, 1 normal, and 1 ok % with low takes.

Next year the 3 point shooters will be Frazier, DFS, Wilbekin, Hill, one of the current freshman, possibly a little from Prather. Of those Frazier will be high volume high percent. DFS, Wilbekin, Hill should all have improved on already decent shooting and be around 40 percent. So overall I see maybe a better shooting team because there should be more quality looks due to the driving ability of Hill, Wilbekin, DFS, Prather, CWalk and a vastly improved inside game

[themistocles]

Whoa Letit - my understanding was that Hill is not a very good distance shooter right now, how is he going to get to 40% on 3s against Collegiate defenses??

I would more expect Ogbueze to be more of a 3-point shooter, spelling Frazier at the 2 than Hill from the point.

Regarding Finney-Smith - I consider him an unknown - he did shoot better as a frosh from 3 than from 2, but that doesn't mean he can do the same here. Different environment, different approach to the game. He was more like Major Parker for Tech, I think, averaging perhaps 1 shot per game.

When volume increases, frequently percentages go down.

Also, without a 4 to stretch the floor as Murphy has done this year and last, teams tend to tighten up the defense.

As I noted, expecting Freshmen to hit a high percentage of 3-point shots is really not wise. Some do, like Frazier, most don't, like Ogbueze, Graham and Walker, all of whom came in as good 3-point shooters, unlike Hill.

[LetItFly]

Originally Posted by themistocles

Whoa Letit - my understanding was that Hill is not a very good distance shooter right now, how is he going to get to 40% on 3s against Collegiate defenses??

I would more expect Ogbueze to be more of a 3-point shooter, spelling Frazier at the 2 than Hill from the point.

Regarding Finney-Smith - I consider him an unknown - he did shoot better as a frosh from 3 than from 2, but that doesn't mean he can do the same here. Different environment, different approach to the game. He was more like Major Parker for Tech, I think, averaging perhaps 1 shot per game.

When volume increases, frequently percentages go down.

Also, without a 4 to stretch the floor as Murphy has done this year and last, teams tend to tighten up the defense.

As I noted, expecting Freshmen to hit a high percentage of 3-point shots is really not wise. Some do, like Frazier, most don't, like Ogbueze, Graham and Walker, all of whom came in as good 3-point shooters, unlike Hill.

DFS was no where near a shot a game. He scored double figures frequently and avg 7 pts per game.

I have watched Hill a lot and I have no idea where the bad shooter thing is coming from. He may not hit 40 percent but he is a good 3pt shooter already. Better than Wilbekin is now in my opinion. Absolutely better than the other freshman currently and he can create his own shot if needed. The difference between him and the current freshman can not be undervalued. He is a top 5 talent overall in high school dont let espn rankings or anything else fool you

[themistocles]

Originally Posted by LetItFly

DFS was no where near a shot a game. He scored double figures frequently and avg 7 pts per game.

I have watched Hill a lot and I have no idea where the bad shooter thing is coming from. He may not hit 40 percent but he is a good 3pt shooter already. Better than Wilbekin is now in my opinion. Absolutely better than the other freshman currently and he can create his own shot if needed. The difference between him and the current freshman can not be undervalued. He is a top 5 talent overall in high school dont let espn rankings or anything else fool you

Yeah, I knew that DFS scored a fair amount for a Frosh, but I think that 3s were rare.

If what you say about Hill is true, then, in fact, the Gators should have 2-3 good 3-point shooters on the Floor most of the time, no matter who is playing point.

[Ahab]

I think Graham will be in the regular rotation as our best bench shooter.

[themistocles]

Originally Posted by Ahab

I think Graham will be in the regular rotation as our best bench shooter.

That was what Bullis was saying earlier when he was arguing that in the long run, Graham would end up being the best of the 4. Given the way Frazier has played this year, I think that is night onto impossible, but you never know..

Hopefully this will prove true.

[1bobcat]

Walker looks good from 3 in pregame shootarounds.

[ugaGator]

We are definitely going to miss Murph being that stretch 4 for us next year. He's been automatic this year!

[ufgator4ever]

Casey prather will take all of the 3s next year.

[gator1986]

Frazier, Wilbekin...

[InstiGATOR1]

Finney-Smith shot 2.2 threes per game as a Frosh at VaTech and made 36.6% of them.

[GatorPlanet]

I'm not worried about either Dillon or Braxton next year. It's been my observation that freshmen usually struggle with the 3-point shot, until they get extended minutes.

[gatorfansrule]

I think we'll see a team structured more like the back-to-back championship teams next year (aka balanced). This team has been more guard oriented, sometimes playing 4 at a time.

[gatormann]

You never quite know what you are going to get from a freshman. Usually, even when they play well as a freshman there is some hole in their game that first season. You never entirely know where that will be but often you see it at the three point line.

Overall, there are many unanswered questions including how much this year's batch of freshmen will improve in their second year and how guys like Hill will shoot as a freshman. That uncertainty is part of what makes all this so much fun!

[themistocles]

Originally Posted by InstiGATOR1

Finney-Smith shot 2.2 threes per game as a Frosh at VaTech and made 36.6% of them.

Ahh, thanks for the stat, Insti.

I also understood that he actually shot somewhat better from 3-point land than from 2-point land, a rather interesting phenomena for a 6'8" forward, to say the least.