Gator Country

**GothamGator** · 03-07-2013, 02:02 PM

Great stuff guys, and thanks to REM for doing a composite. I've added the names of the teams and added a couple of more for comparison.

Here are Jerry Palm's top seeds right now.

1 - Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville
2 - Kansas, New Mexico, Georgetown, Michigan
3 - Florida, Miami, Arizona, Michigan State
4 - Ohio St., Kansas State, Marquette, Syracuse

**GothamGator** · 03-07-2013, 02:03 PM

Here is REM's composite by team.

Duke
New Mexico
Kansas
Indiana
Gonzaga
Georgetown
Florida - Miami (tied)

**GothamGator** · 03-07-2013, 02:14 PM

Adding in the three new teams, I would seed them thusly.

Duke
New Mexico
Kansas
Louisville
Indiana
Georgetown
Michigan
Gonzaga
Florida
Michigan State
Miami

diamondted13 · 03-07-2013, 02:32 PM

Can't keep up with the letters. My S-Curve as of today. A lot can and will change.

Duke
Kansas
Gonzaga
Louisville
Indiana
New Mexico
Miami
Florida
Georgetown
Michigan
Michigan St.
Ohio St.

The Big 10 is the hardest to figure out because the teams have very similar profiles. Somethings gotta give in the Big 10 Tourney, and one team will separate themselves a bit (IU, Mich, or MSU could possibly earn 1 seeds by winning out). Either that, or something like Wisc/Minn in the championship game, to further muddy the Big 10 waters.

**ThePlayer** · 03-07-2013, 03:14 PM

Amazing that the Zags are #78 in SOS...but nobody seems to care.

Michigan at #40 doesn't make them seem so powerful either.

REM08 · 03-07-2013, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThePlayer

Amazing that the Zags are #78 in SOS...but nobody seems to care.

Michigan at #40 doesn't make them seem so powerful either.

True, but with that schedule, they've played 7 top 50 teams and beaten 5 of them. This must mean the other teams they play are in the 200's instead of the 100's. IMO, not that big a difference and one that RPI doesn't account for.

**GothamGator** · 03-07-2013, 03:48 PM

I really don't understand why Gonzaga is getting all that love for a #1 seed. They've played the fewest top 50 rated teams of anyone else in consideration (tied with Florida) and the fewest top 100 teams by far.

**GothamGator** · 03-07-2013, 03:50 PM

BAD LOSSES.

Whatever the committee may say about bad losses, they make a difference. See these factoids from Jerry Palm's Twitter feed.

Jerry Palm‏@jppalmCBS
The only team in the last 19 years to get a 1-seed with a 200+ RPI loss was Michigan St 2000, which lost to Wright St w/o Mateen Cleaves.

Jerry Palm‏@jppalmCBS
Also, only one team has been a 1-seed with a 100+ RPI loss since 2005 (UCLA 2008). No team has been a 1-seed with more than 1 bad loss.

UF67ee · 03-07-2013, 04:22 PM

when you're HOT you're HOT............... that's all that matters in the tournament. And, I like our chances. If Boynton warms up, watch out.

REM08 · 03-07-2013, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GothamGator

BAD LOSSES.

Whatever the committee may say about bad losses, they make a difference. See these factoids from Jerry Palm's Twitter feed.

Jerry Palm‏@jppalmCBS
The only team in the last 19 years to get a 1-seed with a 200+ RPI loss was Michigan St 2000, which lost to Wright St w/o Mateen Cleaves.

Jerry Palm‏@jppalmCBS
Also, only one team has been a 1-seed with a 100+ RPI loss since 2005 (UCLA 2008). No team has been a 1-seed with more than 1 bad loss.

Yeah it all depends on how much stock you put into what they show the media during the media-mock selections vs. what we've seen in the past.

I'm not a huge Gonzaga believer, but just from the numbers we have, when you beat 5 of the 7 top 50 teams you play, I think its fair to assume you'd have success against teams in the 50-100 range as well.

I just wish they'd go away from the RPI as it stands now. The difference between the 120th ranked team and the 220th isn't as huge as the RPI thinks it is. This allows coaches to cherry pick (which few coaches do well) when they schedule and pick the teams that aren't good, but are better than the really bad teams.

gtr2x · 03-07-2013, 04:44 PM

Interesting numbers , guess you have to use something. Given the rpis and sos ( which I think are much less relevant in basketball than football due to so many teams) I can see similar results, but personally I would much rather look at who teams have played, where they played and the actual score. Maybe even factor in injuries. I could rationalize 3 or 4 teams at the top at this point, but Miami is at the bottom of that group anyway I look at it, tho I do think conference champs should get a little bump up due to the rivalry factors.

For me, New Mexico is completely under the radar, havent seen em play and have no clue who they played, but they have a surprisingly high rpi/sos. Have to check that out.

WESGATORS · 03-07-2013, 04:45 PM

Bad losses matter as a tie-breaker going down the list. In a year like this one, Miami has enough of an advantage in more important categories to be able to get a #1 seed (as of today). Bad losses aren't what prevented teams from becoming #1 seeds in the past. A lack of top teams with those types of losses are what prevented teams from becoming a #1 seed in the past.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

themistocles · 03-07-2013, 04:52 PM

Interesting.

Bad losses or good wins?.

Good question REM.

This year really is quite a mess, isn't it?

UFSECKINGS · 03-07-2013, 07:52 PM

the New Mexicans have a damn good resume..FWIW