Interesting Boynton Graph

[bakaduin]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/col...?sct=uk_t11_a1

This isn't exactly new information as we all know Kenny can be a streaky shooter but it is interesting to see it on paper. If you scroll down to our team you see a graph of KB's 5 game effective FG % (effective FG% accounting for the difference in points from a 3 vs. a 2).

It was interesting to me from two points. Number 1 I didn't realize how much Kenny tailed off last season. Going back and looking at the stats he put in a number of double digit games but took a lot of shots to get there.

The second point is man when he is hot boy is he red hot. If we can get that Kenny for the NCAA tournament the sky is the limit.

[your_perfect_enemy]

Originally Posted by bakaduin

[url]

The second point is man when he is hot boy is he red hot. If we can get that Kenny for the NCAA tournament the sky is the limit.

This is what I am thinking. Between he and Rosario, both playing as seniors not wanting their college careers to end and as capabable of getting hot for a 6 game streak as anyone, I like our chances

[GothamGator]

Here's a copy of the chart. Interesting stuff. Note that the chart is a 5-game moving average. That means each dot represents the average stats for Kenny's last 5 games, which smooths out game-to-game variation to some degree.

[Ahab]

Boynton had a great run last season right up until tourney time. He's been up-and-down this year but hopefully he can get hot right when we need him.

[bakaduin]

Thanks Gotham! Probably should have just posted it in here!

[ArtVandelay]

How many points behind is he for the all-time scoring lead? I know he cooled down a bit. Does he still have a shot?

[your_perfect_enemy]

Originally Posted by ArtVandelay

How many points behind is he for the all-time scoring lead? I know he cooled down a bit. Does he still have a shot?

If my math was right before last night, I think he had to average ~15ppg the rest of the way if we made it to the championship game... so one 15 point game down, 10 more to go.

[hgators]

I love KB, and we will ride his leadership, defense and scoring to the FF>

Go Gators!!!

[108]

Kenny was more relied on last year for points, so it was easier for him to get into a groove

[NorthCaptivaGator]

The way both Kenny and Michael Frazier shot last night increased my level of hope for a Deep run, Kenny's deep three was just a beautiful shot with great form, we know he has it in him, he just needs to make it consistent. Any fears about Frazier suffering consequences from the concussion should have been alleviated by those two beautiful threes last night.

[REM08]

Originally Posted by 108

Kenny was more relied on last year for points, so it was easier for him to get into a groove

I see that argument but I've also seen times where being relied on lowers the shooting percentage. IMO, the guys who have the best shot at shooting a high percentage are the ones who aren't counted on and don't have to create for themselves. They can just take open 3's that come their way and happen within the natural flow of the offense. I think Murphy is a good example of this.

What I wonder is what is causing the drop in % for Boynton this year.

Freshmen - 72-245: 29%
Sophomore - 80-242: 33%
Junior - 110-270: 41%
Senior - 61-184: 33%

[dalwood13]

Originally Posted by REM08

I see that argument but I've also seen times where being relied on lowers the shooting percentage. IMO, the guys who have the best shot at shooting a high percentage are the ones who aren't counted on and don't have to create for themselves. They can just take open 3's that come their way and happen within the natural flow of the offense. I think Murphy is a good example of this.

What I wonder is what is causing the drop in % for Boynton this year.

Freshmen - 72-245: 29%
Sophomore - 80-242: 33%
Junior - 110-270: 41%
Senior - 61-184: 33%

It's between the ears with KB. He got off to a slow start and lost a little confidence. He's passed up more open looks this year trying to be a distributor. Hopefully, he'll relax and just play now that some of the pressure is taken off of him after winning the SEC. I think beating Kentucky in Rupp could be another exhale moment for him.

[regurgigator]

I think with Kenny, you just never will know from game to game what you'll get shooting-wise from the three. Earlier in his career, he seemed to have a lot of games where even if he was cold for the first 3 "quarters", he would often, when needed, break out in the last 10 minutes with some big threes. But, I haven't seen that pattern so much in the last year or two.


Overall, I think we'll be fine as a team as long as we can get some good looks. For Murphy, Rosario, Wilbekin and Frazier (particularly Frazier), if they get wide open threes, there's a good chance they (as a group) will make them at a pretty good clip. Boynton is the only one where it doesn't seem to matter that much how open he is, and he's just as likely to hit a contested three as a wide open three (actually he may do a little better when there's some contest as opposed to a wide open look).

Bottom line, I wouldn't take the green light away from any of them, but they still need to remember to mix it up with some "inside action" to use Donovan's term.

[West_End_Gator]

It just seems to me he has reverted to some of his old bad shooting form habits this year, as Jimmy Dykes repeatedly points out on the broadcasts. He probably didn't fully ingrain the new form last year and needed to continue with repetitions to make it instinctive and didn't quite carry through. It's like changing a golf swing. It can take a long time to get comfortable.

[enviroGator]

Love Kenny for sure... but in the Tourney I hope we are not counting on his threes to win.

These last two games I've seen much more of an attempt to get the ball in to Patrick and that has worked nicely.

In our losses we relied on the 3 way too much, probably out of necessity due to injuries and fouls, but none the less, I hope we can keep the balance we have been seeing lately.

[gatordee]

I bet the Gators season (win wise) on a graph would look similar. That is how much he means right now. However, I do not see this continuing and feel he will get out of this slump. We just need to get our team healthy.

[themistocles]

Yes, 3 to 5 game moving averages are a much better way to chart just about anything in just about any field due to the idiosyncratic nature of all specific phenomena.

As someone noted, that chart likely correlates pretty highly with the Gators 5-game moving average win percentage, which almost always associates with multiple losses toward the end of the season.

Interesting.

[gatorbogey]

need a nice '6-game' average at the end of the year, here, to be around 50% from 3 and we'll be set

[GatorNorth]

Last year was the aberration for Kenny's 3pt %; otherwise he has been a below average shooter behind the arc his whole career.

Doesn't shoot at top of jump, too much left hand.

[CharlesUF09]

Honestly, I'd prefer he just develop his cutting ability rather than try to get us to rely on his 3 shot again. I think we have enough guys that can shoot from the perimeter where he doesn't have to carry the load unless he's getting a really nice open look. Him being able to cut to the basket sets up a lot of good things for us, including drawing fouls and getting him to the free throw line which he's actually pretty good at. We have not gotten to the free throw line a lot this year because hacking Patric Young is about as effective at hacking an elephant since he'll just blow right on through that contact, and Will is better at hooks and the layups that don't get fouled much.

Kenny cutting to the basket is where we've seen his game really improve. He's upped his assists numbers. He's getting decent points. He's drawing fouls.

So yeah. With Rosario, Frazier, Murphy, and Wilbekin all capable of shooting the 3, I want to see Kenny be our guy that can take it to the basket. Rosario, as it stands, is only sort of that guy as he prefers those floaters (which, in fairness, he's really good at.) Wilbekin doesn't seem to have the same cutting ability Kenny shows flashes of having as well, and doesn't particularly show the desire to drive anyway. We'll see more with Frazier going forward though, so who knows there.