Gator Country

**GothamGator** · 03-04-2013, 09:14 AM

If we both win out and stay healthy, that's a great statement for the committee. It makes them much more likely to give us credit for all the injuries.

themistocles · 03-04-2013, 10:08 AM

One advantage the Gators have this year, unlike in prior years, is no bad losses. Unless they can figure out a method to lose to Vandy, that should be true when the Selection Committee meets.

I think that different selection committees make their decisions in somewhat different ways, so, it is not easy to predict what will occur on Selection day, and particularly not this year with so many teams losing 4-5 games.

For Gonzaga to get a #1 seed, given the schedule they played, is absurd. Of course, one could likely say roughly the same thing about members of several conferences.

I too would like to see a #2 or #3 seed Florida team in the Bracket where Gonzaga is #1.

#1 is not absolutely out of the Question, but appears relatively unlikely given 2 and who knows, perhaps 3 losses (2 yet to play) in the last 10 regular season games. Consideration of injuries would substantially help both Duke and Florida, and since it would help Duke, I would say it is likely.

**gator1986** · 03-04-2013, 10:10 AM

Why does everyone want a #1 seed?!? I don't care if its 2,3,4,5 Florida can beat anybody!

ETGator1 · 03-04-2013, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gator1986

Why does everyone want a #1 seed?!? I don't care if its 2,3,4,5 Florida can beat anybody!

There is an inverse relationship between seed and winning the tournament odds. The lower the seed, the higher the odds of winning the tournament. It's something close to the following for the top 3 seeds:

1 seed: 22%
2 seed: 20%
3 seed: 18%

Bottom line, the lower the seed, the better.

GCNumber7 · 03-04-2013, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ETGator1

There is an inverse relationship between seed and winning the tournament odds. The lower the seed, the higher the odds of winning the tournament. It's something close to the following for the top 3 seeds:

1 seed: 22%
2 seed: 20%
3 seed: 18%

Bottom line, the lower the seed, the better.

Well, that has more to do with the fact that good teams get higher seeds than anything else don't you think?

InstiGATOR1 · 03-04-2013, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gator1986

Why does everyone want a #1 seed?!? I don't care if its 2,3,4,5 Florida can beat anybody!

In some sense you are right as ETGator1's numbers show, there is not much difference. Still a 4 might be a good bit easier than a 3.

ArtVandelay · 03-04-2013, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ETGator1

There is an inverse relationship between seed and winning the tournament odds. The lower the seed, the higher the odds of winning the tournament. It's something close to the following for the top 3 seeds:

1 seed: 22%
2 seed: 20%
3 seed: 18%

Bottom line, the lower the seed, the better.

Those %'s are way too close to make a real difference...

**gator1986** · 03-04-2013, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ETGator1

There is an inverse relationship between seed and winning the tournament odds. The lower the seed, the higher the odds of winning the tournament. It's something close to the following for the top 3 seeds:

1 seed: 22%
2 seed: 20%
3 seed: 18%

Bottom line, the lower the seed, the better.

Statistics lol, it's doesn't matter. Florida can compete with all the teams in every bracket from top to bottom. What I'm saying is they can beat an Indiana St, or a Indiana. Being those seeds make it tougher, but I would rather play the best to get there, to be better prepared for the NCG.... JMO if you take the easy route like Michigan St 2-4 years ago against North Carolina, then you get smashed in the championship game.

gator2109 · 03-04-2013, 11:24 AM

The % of winning it all may be on top of each other, but I'd be willing to bet the stats on 1, 2, & 3 seeds advancing deep without winning the title would paint a different picture.

For instance - 100% of 1 seeds have advanced to the round of 32. That cannot be said for 2 and 3 seeds.

gator2109 · 03-04-2013, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gator1986

Statistics lol, it's doesn't matter. Florida can compete with all the teams in every bracket from top to bottom. What I'm saying is they can beat an Indiana St, or a Indiana. Being those seeds make it tougher, but I would rather play the best to get there, to be better prepared for the NCG.... JMO if you take the easy route like Michigan St 2-4 years ago against duke, then you get smashed in the championship game.

MSU played UNC that year. They got smashed because they were not as good, not because they didn't play a tough road to the final four. They were a 2 seed and beat the 1 and 3 from their region and then a 3 seed in the final four before facing 1 seed UNC. That's about as chalk as you could get.

If you are not ready and able to beat the best come tourney time then winning a game in the sweet 16 or elite 8 isn't going to prepare you much.

You would be crazy not to take the 1 seed without knowing where others will be in the bracket beforehand. You are not guaranteed to make your 3's, or have your bigs stay out of foul trouble, or get some calls when needed. Having a lesser opponent increases your chances to overcome these things if they happen while playing better competition decreases your chances - this should be obvious.

**gator1986** · 03-04-2013, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gator2109

MSU played UNC that year. They got smashed because they were not as good, not because they didn't play a tough road to the final four. They were a 2 seed and beat the 1 and 3 from their region and then a 3 seed in the final four before facing 1 seed UNC. That's about as chalk as you could get.

If you are not ready and able to beat the best come tourney time then winning a game in the sweet 16 or elite 8 isn't going to prepare you much.

You would be crazy not to take the 1 seed without knowing where others will be in the bracket beforehand.

Ooppss... Sorry lol both from North Carolina lol! Either way Michigan St didn't play as good of teams. And I guess I'm crazy, because I think Florida could win out as a 10 seed.

ETGator1 · 03-04-2013, 11:42 AM

No 10 seed has ever won the tourney with 64/68 teams.

This article puts it better:

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/ncaa-...vancing-166169

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/ncaa-...ss-seed-166168

Here is to hoping we win out through the SEC tourney and get a 1 seed. It does make quite a difference:

1986 - 2012 (UK won 12 as a 1 seed)

1 seed = 16 winners
2 seed = 4 winners
3 seed = 3 winners
4 seed = 1 winner
5 seed = 0 winner
6 seed = 1 winner
7 seed = 0 winner
8 seed = 1 winner (UConn did this a couple of years ago)

That is 1 seed = 16 winners while all of the other seeds combined = 10 winners.

UF won as a 3 seed in 06 and as a 1 seed in 07

Matthanuf06 · 03-04-2013, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GCNumber7

Well, that has more to do with the fact that good teams get higher seeds than anything else don't you think?

Of course that is a part of it, but also better seeds on average have an easier path.

Of course it doesn't guarantee any easier path due to upsets and matchups, but it is more likely.

tommyuf21 · 03-04-2013, 04:07 PM

I can live with a two seed, three seed would be a bit disappointing. I'm not holding out much hope for a #1 seed, unless everyone else collapses. The SEC may only have two teams in the tourney and that is quite an indictment of the strength of the conference.

xenythx · 03-05-2013, 10:52 PM

Indiana down 11 at home with 3 minutes to play. But we all know they won't fall far even if they lose.

gatordavisl · 03-05-2013, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tommyuf21

I can live with a two seed, three seed would be a bit disappointing. I'm not holding out much hope for a #1 seed, unless everyone else collapses. The SEC may only have two teams in the tourney and that is quite an indictment of the strength of the conference.

I'm right on board with this, but think the SEC might surprise with the number of seeds (I expect four bids).

gtr2x · 03-05-2013, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xenythx

Indiana down 11 at home with 3 minutes to play. But we all know they won't fall far even if they lose.

Think I just heard on espn still a 1 seed even with the loss. OSU will prob move up tho.

ryanhoward812 · 03-06-2013, 01:42 AM

I dont buy that we are out of a 1 seed. If we win out and win the sec tourney I would expect us to get a 1 seed.

**regurgigator** · 03-06-2013, 04:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GCNumber7

Well, that has more to do with the fact that good teams get higher seeds than anything else don't you think?

That's why I wouldn't want a #4 seed, because you'd probably have to play a #1 seed in the 1st game of the 2nd weekend and, as you point out, most #1 seeds are good (really good) teams.

I would prefer a #1 seed, but a #2 or #3 wouldn't be too bad either in terms of projected seeds you'd have to play if "chalk" governs.

xenythx · 03-06-2013, 09:02 PM

#5 Georgetown about to lose to unranked Villanova. Could potentially improve our seeding.